1. Ukrainian forces are likely 25 kilometers of the international border with Russia. Russian sources reported that Ukrainian forces captured Velyky Burluk in Kharkiv on September 10. Russian milblogger Yuriy Kotenyok stated that Ukrainian forces took advantage of the absence...
of a continuous front line while advancing on Velyky Burluk.
2. Russian sources reported that Ukrainian forces control Khotomlya, Kherson Oblast, and are operating around the settlement, and are shelling Vovchansk on September 10.
3. Geolocated imagery and Russian reporting confirm that Ukrainian forces captured the western part of Kupyansk on September 10. Russian forces may not fully control the left bank of the river. Russian source Akim Apachev stated that Ukrainian reconnaissance elements are...
operating in Kupyansk on the left bank of the Oskil River. Sources:
4. Elements of the Ukrainian 25th Airborne Brigade reached the northern edge of Izyum, Kharkiv Oblast, on September 10 but likely have not cleared the city or encircled the Russian forces conducting a withdrawal from Izyum as of September 10.
5. Geolocated images show Ukrainian forces at the northern entrance to Izyum. Russian sources reported that the frontline is at Oskil village and discussed how Ukrainian forces have not penetrated the city so far. Russian sources have conflicting reporting on the status of...
ongoing Russian withdrawal operations. Russian forces are likely still conducting a withdrawal from Izyum. Izyum City Occupation Head Vladislav Sokolov stated on September 10 that small people of people can still leave Izyum, for example. Some sources imply that the withdrawal...
(of at least of some elements) is complete whereas other state that it is ongoing. Ukrainian forces may encircle some Russian elements trying to flee Izyum in the coming hours.
6. Russian forces no longer fully control Luhansk Oblast as of September 10. We expanded Ukrainian counteroffensives to Bilohorivka, Luhansk Oblast given geolocated footage showing Ukrainian forces crossing into Luhansk Oblast near Bilohorivka on September 10. Luhansk Oblast...
Head Serhiy Haidai reported on September 10 that Ukrainian forces are on the outskirts of Lysychansk and that Russian forces are leaving the city. Russian sources also stated that Russian forces withdrew from Bilohorivka at an unspecified time in the week of September 4-10.
7. We recessed the Russian control line in Liptsy, Kharkiv Oblast, given Rybar reported on September 10 reported that local sources are stating that Ukrainian forces are probing Russian defenses in Liptsy. Source: t.me/rybar/38570
8. We removed old Russian claims north and west of Udy that Russian sources no longer claim. Source: i.ibb.co/QQyWqBH/10-09-…
9. We expanded Ukrainian counteroffensives towards Bruskynske, Myroliubivka, and Novovoskrensnske in Kherson Oblast given Ukrainian officials reported that Russian forces shelled these locations.
We recoded the entirety of the all of Russian assessed advances and control of terrain north and west of the Oskil River as Ukrainian counteroffensives on September 11. Ukrainian forces are likely still clearing northern Kharkiv Oblast but Russian forces have largely withdrawn.
The Russian Ministry of Defense’s daily briefing map confirmed on September 11 that Russian forces are withdrawing from settlements around Kharkiv City, in northern Kharkiv Oblast, and settlements on the western bank of the Oskil River.
For context, this is the terrain the Russians trying to escape from Izyum have to deal with.
It's nasty. It's wetlands and forests with few roads.
Forces in Izyum need to cross the Oskil River while getting shot at.
Forces south of Izyum City near Kamianka and Mala Komyshuvakha need to cross the Seversky Donetsk River AND the Oskil Eiver while defending the whole group's southern flank from Ukrainian forces advancing in the Dibrove - Sulyhivka - Dovhenke direction.
There are two (2) roads that lead in and out of the pocket.
Ukrainian forces captured around 1000 square km b/t September 8-9 in Kharkiv Oblast. Ukrainian forces are likely clearing some disorganized Russian forces that have been caught in this rapid advance to Kupansk & the Oskil river.🧵
ISW has expanded the Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kharkiv by corroborating Russian reports against remotely sensed data and geolocated imagery. Details of today's changes are below.
1. Ukrainian forces reached Kupyansk’s south. Geolocated images posted on September 9 shows Ukrainian forces on the southern outskirts of Kupansk, Kharkiv Oblast. Russian milblogger Boris Rozhin reported on September 9 that Russian forces repelled a Ukrainian reconnaissance...
1. We expanded Ukrainian counteroffensives up to but not including Shevchenkove, Kharkiv Oblast, based on geolocated footage posted on September 8 that shows Ukrainian forces posing in front of the entrance sign to Shevchenkove.
No visual evidence clearly depicts Ukrainian forces having reached beyond the village. Most Russian sources state that Russian airborne elements are defending Shevchenkove. NASA FIRMS data shows heat anomalies in the western outskirts of Shevchenkove - signs of fighting.
1. We expanded Ukrainian counteroffensives from their last known positions in Verbivka to Yakovenkove - Volokhiv Yar - Semenivka.
Geolocated photos posted on September 7 show Ukrainian forces in Volokhov Yar. Russian milbloggers stated that Ukrainian forces captured...
Volokhov Yar during the night between September 6 and 7.
Russian sources stated on September 7 that Ukrainian forces have taken Semenivka and that battles are ongoing near Shevchenkove. NASA FIRMS data shows heat anomalies inside Shevchenkove.
@TheStudyofWar 1. 1.We expanded Ukrainian counteroffensives to Verbivka, Bairak, and Nova Husarivka in Kharkiv Oblast and recessed the Russian control line behind the Serednya Balakliika and Siversky Donets rivers on September 6. Geolocated footage posted on September 6 shows Ukrainian...
infantry inspecting dead Russian soldiers in eastern Verbivka and a destroyed bridge over the Serednya Balakliika River where the Russian control line likely ends.