About to write down a true story, which is something extremely similar to what is happening this weekend on #FinTwit.

So grab your popcorn, and read till the end, won’t disappoint you, I promise.

A thread 🧵

1/n
My father has been a stock broker since late 1980’s. He and a very close friend of his, both brokers at the peak of the Harshad Mehta madness, saw people 10x their money in months, only to see it vanish in thin air later, but both of them themselves NEVER speculated.

2/n
His friend, a sub broker with a not so good running brokerage biz, and struggling to make ends meet, was thinking of ways as to how to exploit clients because they were doubling their money “on paper” every 3 months and he was still that poor guy, because he was honest.

3/n
During the initial phase of the Harshad mehta boom, he used to advise clients to not go with the herd as it will ultimately lead to extreme wealth destruction, which lead to him losing clients. His intention was honest, to save his clients for longevity of his business,

4/n
But as we all know, “Markets will remain irrational longer than we can stay solvent”. His clients were making no money, and all other people were making shitloads of money on stocks which had ZERO fundamental value. So eventually even he had to resort to such means,
5/n
But unlucky him, when he decided to turn the tide, the whole market collapsed and he was nearly bankrupt.

He didn’t give up. Again started from scratch and this time he thought I will take the first advantage, since honesty has 0 appreciation and makes you POOR, VERY POOR.

6/n
All he cared about was money, kahi se bhi aa jaaye bas paisa aana chahiye, client ko jo bhi ho, hume paise aane chahiye.

Then came the early 2000’s IT Boom.

This time he knew, it will be an opportunity for a lifetime for me, I cannot screw up like last time.

7/n
One of his clients, made 5cr in a matter of 9 months starting from ~80k (no sarcasm, this is true).
He realised, “Yeh saala client 9 month pehle aaya aur 5cr bana gya, aur main 10 saal se brokerage hi leta reh gya fir bhi 5 cr nai bana paaya, kuch toh karna padega”

8/n
So he, without the permission of his client, started advertising his “Client’s” backoffice report in the market stating that I was the one who guided him which led him to make 500x his capital. Take my advisory and mint money and be financially free !

9/n
This happened in Ludhiana, a small town where everyone knows everybody.
No social media influence, no mobile phones to advertise, nothing.
It was just word of mouth and he was advertising this client’s s report aggressively, which made him the talk of the town.

10/n
He rented a Mercedes for 6 months to show off in town so that people see and think that his advisory has made his clients and himself extremely rich (just like #traderslife pics these days)
Half of the people kept pulling him down, saying “Yeh toh tukka lag gya blah blah”
11/n
But many people fell for it too!!!

Due to this negative publicity all over town, his client base grew 10x in 1 year.
The car he rented, he was actually able to buy it since brokerages that time were abnormally high, and luckily due to the bull run, stocks were going 🚀

12/n
My father one day asked him, Aren’t you scared of what you’re doing, because you yourself know this is wrong and one day your clients are going to loose most of their money and then blame you for it?

13/n
His epic reply : Lalach cheez hi aisi hai sir, aaj koi jayega toh kal koi aur aayega.
Apne ko bas publicity chahiye, bazaar main chutiyo ki kami nai hai, jab bakra khud chal kar aa rha hai, usko Halal bhi achi tarah karunga.

When the market collapsed in 2008,

14/n
He literally received death threats from people who lost their livelihood, but he had made a fortune for himself in those 5-6 years and he didn’t give a shit.

This is the exact thing happening on FinTwit these days.

15/n
Get this straight- nobody can teach you how to trade because it is a probabilistic event. They can just share their experiences and it is upto you that how you perceive it.

Ab aapki marzi hai, aapne bakra ban kar halal hona hai ya fir bakre ko halal karna hai.

~End of thread~

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More from @raghavanand648

Jun 12, 2021
Getting a lot of hate and negativity in DM's regarding whatever I have said on 9:20 straddle.

A thread on my opinion, and an experiment that I did.

Going to be a long one, I hope you don't get bored.

1/n
I ran a random simulation on excel, which would toss a coin 726 times (because there are ~750 working days in 3 years and I had data for only 726 days).
Each output would print either Heads/Tails.
I have defined Heads as bullish, Tails as bearish.

2/n
If the outcome is heads, I would buy ATM CE at 9:20, and if tails, I would buy ATM PE at 9:20.
Basic 10th math - 50% chance of a coin toss returning heads or tails. So if I can get a R:R of > 1:3, I might be able to make this random simulation profitable.

3/n
Read 17 tweets

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