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80-90% aller Privatanleger underperformen oder verlieren ihr komplettes Kapital an der Börse!

Warum das meiner Meinung nach vor allem an falschen Vorstellungen und Erwartungen liegt und wie man es besser machen kann - ein Thread 👇
#aktien #börse #fintwit #trading
Privatanleger gehen an die Börse um Geld zu verdienen - logisch.
Vorab sollte man sich allerdings die Frage stellen, was für Erwartungen man hat.
Konkret - Was für eine Rendite p. a. möchte ich erreichen?
Sicher kennst du die Aussagen, dass nahezu 99% der Anleger nicht den Markt schlagen.
Ich schätze - das stimmt!
Was kann man also erwarten, wenn man den Markt nicht schlagen kann / möchte?
Im Schnitt 7% p. a.
Und dafür muss man nicht mal viel Aufwand betreiben.
Read 14 tweets
🧵on Twitter conduct. This is an epic forum for finance, market enthusiasts and we have to cultivate and grow it. We have a culture and etiquette, and I am sharing a priceless lesson from last week how you can get more here.
2/Whether you realize it or not there are several people, most widely followed, running money for a living, and are consummate professionals. They are often happy to help.
3/Last week I needed to reach out to two of the best and both were most generous with their time. They are the finest of gentleman, but it takes a while to grow relationships to ask the questions I did.
Read 13 tweets
Der Aktienmarkt schreibt die unglaublichsten Geschichten

Die 20 verrücktesten Fakten zum Thema Investieren

#Aktien #Börse
1⃣ Seit 1916 hat der Dow an weniger als 5% aller Tage ein neues Allzeithoch erreicht, aber in dieser Zeit ist er um 25'000% gestiegen.

95% der Zeit ist man unter Wasser. Je weniger man schaut, desto besser steht man da.
2⃣ Der Dow hat sich seit 1970 um weniger als 0.03% pro Tag erhöht. Seitdem ist er um mehr als 3'000% gestiegen.

Zinseszinsen sind wirklich magisch.
Read 24 tweets
came across a discussion & there's a misconception between 'Trading For A Living' and being a 'Full-Time Trader'

TFAL is the ultimate grail. it is extremely difficult to achieve even being profitable to a 7-fig trading a/c for 8yrs (I'm in #fintwit for 12 yrs 😅)

let me explain
This thread is certainly not to dash your trading dream. Trading can certainly become a full-time career option.
Opportunities and accessibility in this era to trade execution, even sophisticated data that aids your edge, is dwindling it to a low barrier-to-entry profession
It is life changing decision to halt yr ongoing career/biz to even attempting to trade full-time. this decision will affect;
i) yr career opportunities (there's time loss & progression in yr skills),
ii) yr family (no certainty in mthly income is a fact),
iii) your lifestyle
Read 30 tweets
Hedging is a key skill that every trader needs to learn.

The ins and out of hedging are not widely talked about on #fintwit.

Here are a few insights into what products I like to use for hedging my fixed-income portfolio 👇
1. First I need to ask myself what type of bonds I need to hedge? EUR denominated or USD denominated?

In this case I will talk about USD debt:

- Investment grade
- High Yield
- Emerging Markets
- AT1/Hybrid/Perpetuals

I use different products for each type of bonds.
Investment grade bonds

We have two options here:

-Rates hedging by using the US Treasuries futures - $ZB_F $ZF_F $TN_F $UB_F or similar products
-Same sector ETF hedging - $LQD or the $IBIG futures which are a proxy of $LQD.
Read 7 tweets

Pecado nos Investimentos III

A Ganância

A Soberba é o pecado original e já tratei do tema em um post desta série.

Mas, não há pecado mais fatal no mundo dos investimentos do que a Ganância.

Enquanto a Soberba precede a queda, a Ganância precede a ruína...

Mas, é +

+ imperativo não confundir Ganância com Ambição.

"Greed is good” é uma das frases mais famosas do cinema, proferida e eternizada por Gordon Gekko no filme Wall Street, de 1987.

Mas, esta frase e este modo de pensar (qualquer um que conviva com Gordons e seus admira+

+-dores no MF, sabe) pode levar à ruptura dos limites éticos e ao "get shit done" a qualquer custo.

Ironicamente, citarei aqui trecho de uma entrevista com um dos gananciosos aéticos mais conhecidos do MF:
Jordan Belfort o real inspirador do personagem de outro clássico +
Read 14 tweets
woke up early this morning, saw “fire sale” multiple times in my feed and went back to sleep.
ok, UK #fintwit .,, who have refused to get this shit show under control, jk .. what does it take in lasting way to get it back on track? BoE can ensure liquidity but not sanity. what’s the path? I’m very worried about y’all.
Read 5 tweets
Small trade why I'm bullish for oil products since mid September for end of year & Q1-23 on just physical pov.
Until mid August inventories were quite satisfying in the countries, regions I handle but now it seems products are running out for the coming weeks with an urge to
attract new shorts, but it's becoming difficult as:
- credit lines becoming expensive for traders
- shortage of FX, strong dollars meaning EUR/other FXs deals more expensive ~ less qty available

So less & onerous on macro & finance variables.

But now, with sanctions coming
Most CPs won't want to take risk to take an EU/US sanctions (until now Russian cargoes weren't forbidden) - meaning flows of middle distillates pouring into these regions will dry up quickly. Usually it took 6-7 days to lift a MR to supply the latter from Russia (+50/60% of total
Read 13 tweets
Trading Account Summary Sep '22

2022 YTD
CF Trading Account -1% (-3% in Sep)
$SPY -24%
$QQQ -32%
$IWM -25%

- have tweeted out results for 33 straight months, pnl video sent to members

- '20 results +307% verified by a CPA, '21 results +74% from US Inv Championship (3rd place)
1. Hard to have big winners in this environment (a lot of small winners / losers)
2. FOMC week was my worst week, had a few swing trades that got stopped and tilted performance for mo.
3. Some of my larger winners were shorts
4. Moving mostly to cash helped
The Road ahead & what I am watching w/ greater than 95% cash in trading account
1. Price and trend
2. Breadth to improve (A/D lines, NYSI)
3. Bonds / US Dollar to stabilize
4. Inflation readings to begin to reverser
5. #1 is most important for me
Read 4 tweets
In the last few years, I've developed a model based largely on #CANSLIM fundamentals characteristics to focus on the best stocks.

Not having the money to afford a #MarketSmith sub at the time, I built my own fundamental & technical scoring system into an Excel spreadsheet

PRIME Model explained 🥇

I use this model to narrow the entire US stock market to the top 400/500 names with the best fundamentals and technical characteristics I'm looking for.

It creates the universe list that I use every day to find the best setups for the FL.

In the coming days, that's something that I will share daily with the PrimeTrading Newsletter subscriber as added content.

This weekend, I share it over here on #fintwit for you folks.

Enjoy, and use it wisely! ☺️✌️

Free access to my PT_database 🔗!AgrlbDaERG…
Read 5 tweets
1/ Warren Buffett's buy-and-hold-strategy $BRKB is not for everyone. Buying great businesses & holding works over long investment horizons, but Buffett sometimes went years w/o positive returns (70s). He also didn't beat market for many years after GFC. Patience + high quality.
2/ The strategy only works when you buy top decile businesses (brand, IP, oligopolies, cash flow machines), not the "exciting" high multiple or high vol trash most on #fintwit buy. The problem is people trying to pretend to be Buffett and buy trash cos with no free cash flow.
3/ Chamath had the audacity to compare himself to Buffett, and tried to buy an insurance company like Buffett's GEICO $BRKB , but $MILE (Metromile) was a dumpster fire sold at a steep 90% discount to its original deal valuation to $LMND.
Read 7 tweets
We crossed 25,000 @Twitter, Thank-You🙏

This account was created to teach:
🔹Real Estate
🔹Stock Market
🔹Personal Finance

RT to share if you found this account helpful!
Read 14 tweets
About to write down a true story, which is something extremely similar to what is happening this weekend on #FinTwit.

So grab your popcorn, and read till the end, won’t disappoint you, I promise.

A thread 🧵

My father has been a stock broker since late 1980’s. He and a very close friend of his, both brokers at the peak of the Harshad Mehta madness, saw people 10x their money in months, only to see it vanish in thin air later, but both of them themselves NEVER speculated.

His friend, a sub broker with a not so good running brokerage biz, and struggling to make ends meet, was thinking of ways as to how to exploit clients because they were doubling their money “on paper” every 3 months and he was still that poor guy, because he was honest.

Read 16 tweets
In honor of FLYING past 1️⃣5️⃣0️⃣0️⃣ followers this week, I have put together this thread for my favorite 15 stock platforms, resources, websites, etc. that I use for investing!

Thank you all for letting me be a part of the awesome community that is #divtwit 🔥 Enjoy
1️⃣: Sharesight
Sharesight is the best dividend tracking platform that I have come across since starting my dividend journey.
They make tracking your stock's performance, dividends, benchmarking them, and putting together visual data extremely easy.…
2️⃣: Commonstock
Like #fintwit but way better. There are tons of investors way smarter than me, putting out a bunch of content, research, and plays. The content and interactions are truly priceless.
Read 17 tweets
I’m signing off for a while, friends 👋

The #Fintwit gods are good are presented me with an opportunity that deserves my full attention 🤓

Feel free to email me, 📥

Y’all know I love it here, and probably too much. Some thoughts on #Fintwit below 💜

This website is dripping with ideas. Value, growth, quality, international, special sits, microcap, REPE, REITs, technical analysis, crypto, energy, SAAS, SMIDs, dividend growth, income 💧

What used to happen on VIC, G&D, Sumzero and idea dinners now happens here

The amount of skilled and talented investors, professionals and hobbyists, hanging out here is vast. If you share with the community, publicly or privately, you surely will receive back equal or more in models, notes and thoughts from many smart folks, often in DMs 🤝

Read 8 tweets
/ Thread: $FMX Deep Dive

100 pg. slide deck here 👉🏼

In this thread I'll walk you through my assumptions why FEMSA owns one of the best retail assets in LatAm with sizable growth potential.

The deck has eight chapters, starting with "FMX AT A GLANCE".

$FMX owns c-store chain OXXO: the clear market leader in Mexico with 20k stores and an 85% share of the formal market.

OXXO has a 10x lead vs. #2 $SVNDY (7-Eleven) in Mexico and >13m people shop at its stores every day. It's the #2 domestic retailer by revenue after $WALMEX

Besides its retail arm, FMX owns equity stakes in two mature beverage companies, $KOF & $HEIA, that generate stable amounts of FCF and fund the company’s dividends.

$FMX owns 47.2% of Coca-Cola FEMSA, 14.8% of Heineken plus some emerging distribution and digital businesses.
Read 26 tweets
The Nomad Scam ⚠️

A Thread 🧵 by and Airline Pilot 🛩 with a 37,000ft view ⛅️
Don’t go burning that Passport just yet 🔥

If you’ve spent any time doing deep dives in #fintwit or on YouTube, you’ve likely come across a few people offering you the service of separating you from your money and your US citizenship.
The prominent players in this space use some kind of take on the words #nomad & #Sovereign They boast lavish lifestyles in Banana Republics were you can escape the regime of the United States Government and its tax code.
Read 17 tweets
We crossed 20,000 follows on @Twitter today, Thank-You🙏

This account was created to teach:

🔹Real Estate
🔹Stock Market
🔹Personal Finance

I teach these things because schools won't!
Read 13 tweets
After ~15 months, I've just passed 10k followers on Twitter / #fintwit. My sincere thanks to all who follow me & who read the Value Situations newsletter. I am working through a pipeline of very interesting, idiosyncratic equity ideas & I look forward to sharing these w/ readers;
You can read about my approach and newsletter offering here -
For a cost of $500/year or $50/month, paid subscribers receive 2 - 3 actionable public equity ideas per quarter, presented in a buy-side investment memo format -
Read 7 tweets
1/ The S&P is up about 8.5% over the last two-and-a-half weeks and 17.7% from its low. Is this a bear market rally?

A short thread on what's going on in the markets right now 👇
2/ Two weeks ago I wrote a thread on how things started to change after the FOMC meeting on July 27. The gist was: vol was coming down, breadth was improving, and the market decided that no forward guidance is very bullish. You can read that here:
3/ So, how have things turned out so far? Let's start with the data. Last week we've had Non-Farm Payrolls and Average Hourly Earnings both surprise bigly to the upside. The dollar (blue line on the chart) was immediately higher.
Read 14 tweets
1/It's the weekend, macro review, and time to post Reverse Repo making ATH last week and there will be wailing and gnashing of teeth across #fintwit over this rather uninteresting phenomenon so a 🧵on why it is so high.
2/Fed Balance Sheet Assets: prior to GFC this was <$1T and reflected NY Fed OMO to maintain Fed Funds, then Bernanke lost his mind IMO and started QE. The balance sheet grew from $946B to $4.5T ~8Yrs. We👀paint dry as the balance sheet shrank $700B until August 2019.
3/We had a bad cold/flu season in 2020, lost our collective minds, shut the economy down, and the Fed expanded the balance more using QE in the next 2 years than it did in 8 years following GFC.
Read 20 tweets
Hate threads, but love to read.

When people talk about best finance / Wall Street books, it’s always Barbarians at the Gate, Liar’s Poker, or Den of Thieves

But I wanted to share some lesser known favorites that should make anyone’s #FinTwit book list
Buy Side: A Wall Street Trader’s Tale of Spectacular Excess by @turneyduff (Writer for Billions, ex-Galleon Group)…
The Accidental Investment Banker: Inside the Decade That Transformed Wall Street by Jonathan Knee (Current Evercore, ex-GS banker)…
Read 14 tweets

A tough-love 🧵on why CPAs aren’t referring you business:
1. For starters, stop calling us “CPAs”. It’s our own industry’s fault, I know, but “CPA” is a license and it doesn’t tell you what that person actually DOES. Also, know that we’re often not location-specific like, say, attorneys tend to be.
When YOU are looking for US, rather than saying “I’m looking for a CPA in Atlanta”, consider what your client NEEDS. A tax professional who can handle multi-state equity comp? A part-time controller for their int’l mfg biz?
Read 33 tweets

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