“Reflects the safety profile and tolerability demonstrated in patients to date”
If you assume T/O multiple of x4. I.e. < half of the industry average (8.9x).
Then just their “3 tumour market” model has a value of $6Bn.
If you assume a 10% CoS, that is valued at $600m.
We’re valued at $334m. 5.5% CoS.
395 days into trial our CoS has gone from 10% > 5.5%.
If you don’t believe #AVCT can licence 3996 on 395 days of (mechanism of action) data, you aren’t admirably cautious, you haven’t been paying attention.
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Today is FOUR HUNDRED DAYS into human trial of AVA6000.
#AVCT started at 80mg/m2 and are now at a quite incredible 200mg/m2.
Equivalent to 135mg/m2 of Dox.
They are yet to find a MTD.
Orphan Designation from FDA.
SP = 111.7p.
(-)6.13% YTD for 400 days and no MTD.
What’s crazy about this SP being below placing at this stage is AVCT isn’t going to have any more data which disproves or proves the platform by this stage.
If you are Takeda and you are in the data room, you aren’t thinking ‘I really want to see the impact of 200mg vs 160mg’.
Yes of course medically they will be fascinated but if the mechanism of action is confirmed at 160mg, it’s almost irrelevant whether it is replicated at 200mg for the purposes of assessing likelihood of 3996’s success. I.e. the 200mg PK data won’t change opinion.