Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #AVCT

Most recents (24)

Mologic CE marked AffiDX for professional use, CE mark with #avct not Med19 AffiDX solely an avct brand. Med19 CE self use mark for Meduflow, EU CE mark solely Med19’s for Meduflow not avct. Professional & self use CE marks differ in use, both need separate CE marks.

Med19 have done all the hard work re: lay user study, filing all docs for CE mark for self use with EU notified body, as well as the money and time spent in obtaining CE self use mark for Meduflow. Med19 will be looking to keep and make a serious return on their investment

I suspect main points under license agreement between #avct Med19 would be:- use Affimer IP in Meduflow, Med19 achieve minimum yearly sale targets, which global territories (if not covering all world), royalty % per test sold, duration of license agreement,


Read 24 tweets
‘Who (what) is EU Notified Body Med19/#avct cld be working with’ to obtain EU IVD self use CE certificate. What EU state cld they be from, is it coincidental they are located in Spain, same city hospital area avacta used to verify AffiDX lft, Med19 have a Spainish website

On EU NANDO database from 18 Notified Bodies (NB) Med19/#avct could be working with ‘AEMPS Notified Body’ who certify med product devices under EU directive 98/79/EC for self use in-vitro diagnostic test (IVD). If not, then 17 other EU Notified Bodies to work with

EU Notified Body much like mhra/fda. AEMPS NB is located in Spain/Madrid/Delgado. Same country, city, hospital area #avct used to independently verify AffiDX. AEMPS CE certified AffiDX for professional use, was application for AffiDX CE self use submitted around same time.

Read 15 tweets
The portfolio cornerstone, @avacta #AVCT, now down 6% YTD - having been +154% (290p) in April.

The PF is now more heavily weighted than ever to the stock, primarily for the impending AVA6000 data.

Acutely aware that it's a high risk strategy, but have immense conviction.

Four potential indicators to look out for in the coming weeks / months that #AVCT's targeted chemotherapy platform is working:

1) Additional hospitals start recruiting.

If the first patient(s) of the first cohort was experiencing the side-effects...2/11…
...associated with standard doxorubicin, the trial may have been halted already.

On that note, St. James's University Hospital started recruiting, AFTER #AVCT's CEO stated he was "very pleased with the positive progress", re: the first patient at Royal Marsden.

Read 11 tweets
Absolute terror reigns over many #AVCT shareholders this week- simply because @avacta hasn't announced orders for its LFT yet.

Question: would #AVCT be lining up 30m per month capacity overseas, if it thought its existing 5m per month capacity in the UK wouldn't be filled? 1/13
Many seem obsessed with the UK market, thinking that's the be-all and end-all for #AVCT's AffiDX LFT.

My view is that mgmt had turned its back on the UK market several months ago, when it was apparent that there was, at best, complete ineptitude; or, at worst, corruption... 2/13 the top of certain UK Gov bodies. I'm referring to both the continued inexplicable support of Innova, and to the stonewalling of @mologic and UK Diagnostics PLC in general.

The FDA's actions against Innova may well have changed #AVCT's stance re: dealing with HMG. 3/13
Read 13 tweets
A must-read article for #AVCT holders ⬇️

University of Leeds (@avacta's academic partner) has been able to bind Affimers to the mutated form of the RAS protein, AKA the Death Star, which is responsible for 20-30% of all cancers.

Huge LT implications for Affimer Therapeutics 1/5
Amy Turner, co-author: "RAS really is the Holy Grail of therapeutic targets. The fact that it has previously been termed 'undruggable' has allowed us to demonstrate the huge impact that our Affimer technology can have when it comes to treating challenging pathologies."

We have seen in recent months how #AVCT's Affimer Diagnostics platform has outperformed monoclonal antibodies (and other antibody mimetics), in the Affimer-based #COVID19 LFT and ELISA.

Now we have an example of Affimers' superiority (dare I say uniqueness?) in Therapeutics. 3/5
Read 5 tweets
ST trade: multiple purchases this week in #AVCT, av. 169p. Separate from core LT hold.

'Bad' news (i.e. slower build up in manufacturing capacity than envisaged by most; no commercial orders yet) now out of the way; potential for major and frequent positive news flow ahead. 1/12
Worst case scenario for #AVCT is that it'll sell 3m to 5m LFTs a month from August, for the next 3 years. That'll be £3m to £5m gross profit per month.

With clinical trials now commencing, assume annual cash burn increases to c.£30m.

Worst case then: @avacta is now free... 2/12
...of funding concerns that constantly plague Biotech PLC - for the foreseeable.

Best case? #AVCT will be selling 60m+ LFTs per month by December (or maybe much sooner). £60m+ gross profit per month - for 3 years or more.

But much more importantly for the investment case:

Read 12 tweets
#avct already 1/2 recent daily avg vol traded. The offload at open by the seller appears to be abating. Very short term lead up to Monday offers 20% return for the bold at 220 ish to buy. 100 quid trades will signal the turn, limit orders on book remain shallow.
#avct mm's were long inventory, bid only just catching up, tape looking better 20 quid buys going through, book still remains shallow.
#avct traders may speculate on the balance of probabilities that @avacta is v unlikely to voluntarily schedule an investor call ahead of an agm to communicate adverse news. Factoring recent market developments, a risk appetite for a 20% upside from these levels seems reasonable.
Read 6 tweets
Here in Germany, we have already reached the point that my local grocery shop is selling rapid antigen tests.

Their product of choice is Hotgen, produced by a company out of Beijing.

Claims SENS 95.3% and SPEC 99.13% with the anterior nasal method.

There is now an unbelievable number of different products on the market in Germany, with the most popular being fairly local names, Roche and Siemens.

Both of these tests are being employed in school and kindergartens. Both employ nasal swab.

Schools testing twice weekly.
Kindergartens are giving parents two tests per week and encouraging their use.

The Roche test is essentially the SD Biosensor test the Siemens is Healgen. Both of which went through Porton Down but apparently weren't contracted.

Having spent so long studying the market,
Read 8 tweets
@avacta's AVA6000 approved by MHRA. Superb news. First dosing 'around mid-year'; first data to come within 3-4 months after that.

A summary thread on the significance of AVA6000 - and #AVCT's pre CISION platform as a whole - to both the oncology industry and to AVCT itself. 1/10
In very basic terms, #AVCT's pre CISION chemotherapies are essentially reformulated versions of existing, approved chemotherapies that have been used on cancer patients for many years - decades, even.

The pre CISION tech is simply an attempt to improve the safety profile... 2/10
...of the chemo.

Most therapeutics going through clinical trials look for an improvement of at least 20% over the existing industry-standard drug. A 50% increase in efficacy would usually be considered an astonishing result.

In pre-clinical mouse models for #AVCT's AVA6000 3/10
Read 10 tweets
Quick recap on @avacta #AVCT's #COVID19 LFT.

By the end of next week, the Co intends to have put out a comprehensive TU.

Critically, it will include the sensitivity / specificity of its #COVID19 LFT for the first time. Analytical data collected so far suggests that it'll...1/14 the most accurate LFT in the world. However, it is not a given that analytical data will be replicated in the clinical data. Likely, but not definite.

Let's assume it IS replicated. #AVCT will CE Mark its LFT next month, and immediately begin selling it.

@avacta #AVCT does not have its own manufacturing capacity (yet). It will be contracting manufacturers to make its test.

It's lined up @Abingdon_Health #ABDX, @bbi_solutions and @mologic / GAD, and is working with @OmegaDiagnostic #ODX too (although not publicly announced). 3/14
Read 14 tweets
I have had so many calls and messages about the fall in #AVCT @avacta's share price over recent weeks.

Let me be very clear: I am entirely unconcerned by this fall.

As the below Tweet shows, I had a long-term target of ~£20 BEFORE Avacta announced its #COVID19 workstreams. 1/n
The issue is - as is becoming more and more often the case in the world of micro-caps - people are buying companies like #AVCT without having first decided if it is a trade or an investment position.

I cover the importance of this distinction in my profile picture. 2/n
I myself am a trader, professionally, and actually hold very few long term investments. The volatility and lack of quality, accessible research renders AIM an excellent trading ground.

But @avacta #AVCT is an investment. In the next few weeks, it'll be submitting... 3/n
Read 14 tweets

Good question.

#NCYT has been installing Q16s and Q32s weekly now in the NHS, so what they've done with the care home trial is expand it now to include the NHS hospitals.

The care home Q16/Q32 trial held up to lab testing.


What happens if you go all-in, and get data from supply to hospital wards too?

Well if it can hold 99%, then you can approve rapid RT-qPCR machines as permanent installations across the entire NHS and social care
We obviously want our kit in there, but what we're suggesting is an entire rewrite of the UK's microbiology network.

That involves change at all levels of the NHS - a major public policy change too.

Nothing has been done on this scale in diagnostics in our generation.
Read 19 tweets

Time's ticking.

Flu season is coming and lockdown is ending with a 20k+ per day infection rate in the UK

We support @PrimerdesignLtd over other companies because we believe in their earnest work and the quality of their innovation.

As investors and traders we can easily take money and put it into a whole host of stocks which we think might 'bag or multi-bag' - just to make money - even though we don't really know or genuinely care for those companies or products.
Many of us here now have been holding because there is a genuine team at @PrimerdesignLtd & @MicrogenBioProd and they are worth following and investing in.

If your relatives were vulnerable in a care home..

Do you trust visitors tested by PrimerDesign or by something else?
Read 8 tweets
UK retail investors continue to fixate on UK Gov contracts for #AVCT tests, as the cornerstone of their success.

A CE Mark means Europe wide sales for professional use, are at their disposal. That means all European businesses/governments.
Given these are a relatively new and cheaper form of testing, whose demand will fall short of their supply, then why do UK retail investors feel they must win UK contracts to sell.

Furthermore, given the highlighted demand and ease with which the European market can be...
...accessed, plus the fact that other tests keep coming to the fore and supposedly stealing potential AVCT contracts, the question continues to remain, why has AVCT, as late as 30t Sept, still only focused on the UK?
Read 5 tweets
An extraordinary day. Firstly, fabulous initial data from Pfizer's vaccine, demonstrating it's 90% effective. An immense scientific breakthrough and a boon for humanity.

From an investment perspective (the raison d'être of this account!): a day of joy and misery, equally! 1/16
Global indices absolutely rocketed - 27/100 FTSE100 Cos ended the session at 10%+. Most sectors were up, whilst precious metals miners and #COVID19-centric stocks got obliterated. The latter group included treatment and testing stocks, and at home/online entertainment/living 2/16
Personally, my PF took an almighty spanking, owing to #AVCT being my largest position by a distance, and also having recently opened a position in #SNG.

A high quality vaccine was always the key risk to #COVID19 plays, but for me, that has always been a medium term risk. 3/16
Read 16 tweets
At the current £265m MC, #AVCT needs to sell min. what? c. 25-30m (e.g) tests in the first year.

Will a vaccine prevent them from achieving that? No.

Will they likely sell far more than that? In my opinion, yes.

By 2022, AVCT/partners will highly likely be bringing new..
...non Covid tests to the market, to replace any potential lost revenue from Covid tests.

They will also have advanced their LG Chem, Moderna and Daewong partnerships, as well as having AVA6000 results, which in turn will advance other drugs in their PreCISION stable.
The more their Covid tests contribute to this, the more the other areas of the business can flourish.

Its all about time and patience, which I am happy to contribute.

Yes the drop's an opportunity for those that got out and want to get back in, but that's not my style.
Read 6 tweets
At home antigen testing for #COVID19.

Detection of pre-symptomatic / asymptomatic cases - to a high degree of accuracy - is key.

99% specificity is a must, and ideally sensitivity of 92-93%+.

There should also be a method of logging the result in an objective manner...1/n
...elsewise individuals with positive results could disregard government instructions and go out for work / socialising regardless.

@avacta #AVCT's Affimers are an antibody mimetic - designed to overcome the limitations of monoclonal antibodies.

The evidence indicates... 2n
...that Affimer-based lateral flow tests will likely have a higher specificity than mAb-based LFTs, and possibly higher sensitivity too. Moreover, they are rapid to develop, cheaper to manufacture, and are robust (a benefit both for supply chain issues and for shelf-life).

Read 5 tweets

Professor Jo Martin in the picture below is hard at work finishing off the report and recommendations for NPT Care Home testing in the UK.

She is one of the UK Gov's advisors at the DHSC and Head of Pathology.

Here she is with #NCYT Q16.

The Novacyt Q16 she's holding in her palm is small yet it can perform 14 Gold Standard tests in an hour (average throughput of around 4mins per test).

However the CEO said last week they have a NEW innovation for it. They're going speed it up and simplify it even more.
This was one of the CEO's typically understated additions - where he has a habit of sneaking in massive bombshells without the market noticing.

This new update coming for the Q16's & Q32's turns these amazing devices..
Read 9 tweets

Market cap, as pointed out by a hedge fund last night, is

"Currently lower than expected cash in bank come June 2021"

Find ANY other company on the stock market in that situation and post here. #NCYT is a once in a generation stock.

If investors don't understand what that means, it means that Novacyt will eventually re-rate come 2021, and it will have a market capitalisation of 1 to 2 billion and keep growing.

To miss something so obvious, you will never have any credibility
Take a look at diagnostics companies, their revenues, and their market caps:…
Read 4 tweets
All these months, I have tried to keep things in perspective on how big an opportunity these Covid tests, could be for #AVCT.

The phrase "if it sounds to be good to be true," kept coming to mind.

Given where we are in the process and what AVCT presented on 29th Sept,
I think I am now entitled to start factoring in few of my grander questions.

If AVCT can set itself on a path to even half of what has been presented, so 50-60m tests per month, be it directly involved or not,
what does that say about where they can take the therapeutics business post AVA6000 first (assumed successful) read out?

How many therapies can be tackled at once?

What does it say about their standing in the diagnostic and even cancer therapies market place?
Read 7 tweets
Another interesting #AVCT slide I liked, which again supports what I have been saying today.

"Avacta is addressing the very significant COVID-19 testing opportunity in UK first and will continue to scale manufacturing to meet global demand"

What a lovely sentence that is.
Particularly when they go on to talk about 30m people testing themselves once a week, delivering 120m tests per month.

That's just one market.

"Therefore the commercial opportunity form Avacta is determined by supply capacity and not demand"

Lovely sentence mark 2
Yes they talk about self testing but until that is available (post field studies etc), business can be encouraged to take up the strain. Such things as tax credits etc come to mind, meaning a shoot for such a number, starts when professional use gets the green light.
Read 11 tweets
In terms of that government FOMO, the other highlighted uses on that #AVCT slide, point towards "GP surgery" and "Testing station."

Both of which orientate themselves towards UK Gov.

Parking that rather large potential GP surgery market for a moment.
For anyone doubting AVCTs ability to win significant orders from the UK Gov, just consider for a moment, how much more efficient UK Gov testing sites could become, when a test result can be achieved in c. 10 mins, without the need to employ an expensive piece of kit.
How much quicker the stations could process their backlogs and how fewer miles people would have to drive, to get a test full stop.

How likely is it that the UK Gov would turn that opportunity down and let it be sold overseas? Possible but minimal in my view.
Read 5 tweets
Key takeaway from #AVCT Interims presentation and a point I have been focusing in on for a while.

The enclosed slide delves more into "Avacta's Product Strategy."

Whilst home testing is of course an ultimate goal,
it is for me a complete bonus to the investment case. A free shot if you will and not necessary for the success of this test, to be truly enormous.

When discussing this slide Dr Smith says about professional use being ;
"far more likely to be professional use around workplace testing and that involves having a trained technician or healthcare worker on site, which many companies are planning to do."

Now ask yourself, how does AVCTs CEO know so many companies are planning to have...
Read 9 tweets
Investors should be asking themselves why after such a detailed interims presentation, #AVCT's CEO felt the need to hold an interview, containing questioning that they fully control.
Stifel are clearly on board with #AVCT for the build up in US Investor interest and a NASDAQ listing.

How long? Who knows? But the more US interest builds, the more those investors are surely going to want to be able to trade in their own backyard.
As for those UK Gov contracts. . .

Yesterday I said I couldn't see "how it isn't being heavily supported/influenced by UK Gov. Too big a deal."

After that interview, can there really be anymore doubt about where this is all heading.

Read 3 tweets

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