Andrew Perpetua Profile picture
Sep 11, 2022 47 tweets 12 min read Read on X
My update is for September 6 through September 9th. #ukrdailyupdate

The tide has turned.

If you would like to view the map, here is the link: google.com/maps/d/u/0/edi…
Around Kharkiv city, Russia is working to maintain a buffer between the front line and the Russian border. I have tried to find an update on the status of Udy and Sosnivka, but I have not been able to find reliable information.
From what I gather, based upon reports from September 5-9 and from newer reports from September 10-11, I believe Russia may have had some control over Sosnivka from September 5th-9th and then lost this control sometime during the 10th. I believe Udy is a contested town.
Russia tried to seize control of Udy (1) and Push into Kostyanivka (2). Kostyanivka is a heavily fortified town, and all Russian attacks failed. I believe Udy remains contested.
Russia attacked Prudyanka (3) and in the general direction of Pytomnyk (4), but Ukrainian defenders repelled both assaults. During this time, there are rumors that Ukraine captured Dementiivka (A), but I cannot find confirmation.
Russia assaulted Ruski Tyshy on September 9th (5), and there are some indications that a Ukrainian counterattack could have established control over Velyki Prokhody (B), Borshcheva (C ), and Vesele (D). I cannot find confirmation on any of these three claims, so I did not update.
Southeast of Kharkiv, on September 6th, Ukraine launched a massive counteroffensive. First, Ukraine attacked Balakiya from Pryshub (6), using around 15 tanks to punch a hole through the Russian front lines around Verbivka.
Once penetrating the line, Ukraine pushed mechanized infantry through, captured Verbivka, and then attacked and cut off Balakliya from the north. Almost simultaneously, Ukraine attacked Balakliya from the south (E) (I forgot to place the number, so it is a letter).
They rapidly captured Nova Husarivka and Bayrak, both abandoned by Russians who retreated into Balakliya. Also, simultaneous to the initial assault, Ukraine attacked and captured Yakovenkove (7), Yolokhiv Yar (8), and Hrakove and Chkalovske (9).
To help illustrate the speed of this assault, in Volokhiv Yar the Ukrainian soldiers surprised one tank and two infantry fighting vehicles, destroyed them in quick succession, and two platoons of Russian soldiers immediately surrendered. Ukraine captured the town within minutes.
After capturing Volokhiv Yar, the Ukrainian recon forces pushed to Shevchenkove (10) and immediately started attacking the town. By morning, Ukrainian infantry had captured most of the town, and the recon forces had already pushed up to Starovirivka and Hrushivka (11).
Shortly after, Ukrainian recon forces pushed towards Prystin (12) and Kupyansk (13), where they would wait for the infantry to catch up.

In this image, the shade of the color represents the date, and the darkest blue represents September 9th.
Meanwhile, Russia tried to hold onto Balakliya, but when Ukraine captured Borshchivka on September 8th (tip of the 7 arrowhead) it forced Russia to withdraw from Balakliya to Savyntsi (F).
Within hours, Ukraine broke through these defenses (15) and then began moving south from Vesele toward Izyum (14). Ukraine also managed to push down the Oskil river (16).
Oh, and Ukraine pushed north from Pechenihy and either captured or contested Artemivka and Martove (17). It is possible Ukraine moved substantially further north than these two towns because there was a report that they *defended* an assault in Ploske (G).
At the end of September 9th, Ukraine controlled everything between Kupyansk and Izyum. Around 3190 sqkm.
In the Izyum area, Russia repeatedly assaulted Ukrainian positions during these four days, attacking Virnopillya (18), Dibrovne (19), and Dolyna (20). There is evidence that Ukraine attacked north toward Oskil (21), which would have assisted the forces surrounding Izyum.
Russia claims they stopped this attack near Bohorosychne, but I am not sure Russia even had men near Bohorodychne, so I find that unlikely. It is also possible that Ukraine made this advance on the other side of the river, through Studenok, moving up through the forest.
Near Slovyansk, Ukrainian forces crossed the Siverskyi Donets river and moved up toward Drobysheve (22) and Lyman (23). There were rumors that Ukraine had entered Lyman by September 9th, but Russians claim the fighting was only in the forest.
Ukraine built crossing points across the river using gravel. Russians lamented that Ukraine managed to cross the river without casualties, unlike the catastrophic Russian river crossing where they lost several hundreds of men to Ukrainian artillery and air power.
Near Siversk, Russians tried in vain to attack Hryhorivka (24). Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces began to march toward Lysychansk (25,26).
The southern advance (26) is vital because it threatens to establish a foothold in the hills by which Ukraine could attack the Lysychansk Oil refinery (H).
Russia tried to stop the Ukrainian advance with repeated tank attacks, but the Ukrainians fought off the tanks and continued to climb up the hill. This is important for what happened on September 10th, but that is beyond the scope of this update.
Russia is attacking Bakhmut with everything it has, and this area has a lot of heavy fighting with high casualties for both sides.
Russia is attacking west from the Knauf Gips factory (27). More accurately, you would say anything west of the factory is Bakhmutske, but Russia and Ukraine describe the area as “Soledar.”
Russian mercenaries are slowly pushing through the Ukrainian fortifications on the edge of town, which guard the approach toward the northern part of Bakhmut.
Ukraine managed to push Russia out of the northern part of Bakhmut, suffering many casualties, but now Russia is attacking the southern portion of the city (28). Russia is close to the city, fighting in the outskirts, if not within the city limits in some areas.
Ukrainian forces suffer heavy shelling in this area, which is causing a lot of casualties. Many suffer concussions, ranging from mild to severe, while others suffer shrapnel wounds or worse.
You may be interested that the famous T-80 tank, Bunny, is operating in this area. I heard it fired 85 shells in a single day this week.

nytimes.com/2022/08/30/wor…
Russia is trying to push through Vesele Dolyna south of Bakhmut (29). I am unsure how deeply they have penetrated the town.
Russian forces are continuously storming Zaitseve without notable success (30). Russia first captured the town of Kodema and then the crucial hill to the north (31). Now they are pushing west and northwest toward Mykolaivka Druha and Odradivka, respectively.
Furthermore, they are attacking Mykolaivka Druha from the south (32). Russia is also continuously assaulting Mayorsk (33), but as of September 9th, it remained in Ukrainian control.
In the Donetsk area, Russia attacked Kamyanka (34). I have no information about this attack, but I assume it failed. Russia made unspecific gains in its assault on Avdiivka (35). The advance is likely very minor.
They assaulted the area of the Zenith bunker on the old Soviet airbase (36). Russia probably captured some outer defenses, but not the famous bunker. Russians are continuously assaulting Opytne (37), but the defenders hold.
Russians captured the Anthill and several of the surrounding fortifications (38). The Anthill was a significant stronghold in this area, and Ukraine suffered many casualties trying to defend it.
Russia continuously attacked the Republica Mist stronghold in Pisky (39). The assaults are described to me as “Zerg rushes” where they sent huge waves of infantry, who were subsequently destroyed. Every day Ukraine has fewer defenders, but Russia loses huge numbers of infantry.
Russia attacked in the direction of Nevelske (40). The town remains in Ukrainian hands, but I do not know how much progress Russia has made toward it. Russia may have moved the front line up to the outskirts of the town by now.
To the west of Donetsk, Russia is trying to push Ukrainian forces out of Marinka by hammering the back with artillery and assaulting the defenders (41). Ukraine controls part of the town. Ukrainian defenders repelled on attacked Pobjeda (42) and Novomykhailivka but failed (43).
South of Donetsk, there are unconfirmed indications that Ukraine pushed south from Pavivka and Shevchenko into Petrivka and Yehorivka (44). I do not know if Ukraine captured these towns or merely moved closer to them, but there are reports of Russian shelling in the area.
Russia claims to have captured Vremivka (45) and Novopil (46), but I find it difficult to believe they have. They are likely contested, which is how I marked them on the map.
In the Zaporizhzhia area, I do not have much to say about these four days in Zaporizhzhia.
When you look at the map of the Mykolaiv/Kherson area, you see a lot of action near the Inhulets that we need to zoom in to distinguish.
On September 7th, Russia made two significant attacks on Shchaslyve (47) and Bezimenne (48). Ukrainian forces managed to repel both attacks, causing significant casualties to Russian forces.
Ukraine then mounted their own attack south into Chkalove (49). The results of this attack are not confirmed, but judging by the response of Russian sources, it likely did not go well for Russia.
On September 6th, Russia attacked Liuvomyrivka without success (50). On September 8th, Ukraine punched through the Russian defenses near Myrne (51). The full extent of their success is unknown, but Russia has been hitting Barvinok (I) with airstrikes and artillery ever since.
On September 9th, Ukraine attacked and captured Oleksandrivka (52), but reports from September 10th claim Ukraine had already lost control of the town. For that reason, I marked the town as contested.
This is all I have for this time period.

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More from @AndrewPerpetua

Jan 23
The main thing that any educated person needs to keep in mind at all times is that realpolitik is fake and everyone who believes in it is typically universally wrong on every single word they ever say.
It is especially funny because realpolitik people are almost never experts in any domain, and they get their info from aggregators. And those aggregators know the realpolitik people use them, and as such present info in a way most likely to influence the realpolitik.
They end up just being unwitting amplifiers of misinformation.
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Frankly I think the fastest way to end the war in Ukraine is not by sending tanks or by idiotic peace proposals. The fastest way is to set up factories across europe to produce 1000-2000 long range strike drones per day, and launch hundreds if not thousands of drones into Russia every single day until the country collapses. If they think sending 500 drones into Ukraine is a threat, see how they respond when 3000 drones fly into Russia.
With this many drones you can hammer every single factory, powerplant, substation, oil refinery, and mine in russia relentlessly.
Europe had a million drone program, to supply 1 million fpv drones. Fuck fpv drones. Have a 1 million drone program to supply 1 million strike drones. That's your million drones.
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The "stupid westerners, sanctions do not work, we smuggle goods in illegally. muahaha, Russia unstoppable" people tickle me. Sanctions are not for stopping goods entirely, they are for increasing friction because the resources you spend smuggling are resources not spent growing
People fundamentally don't understand the purpose of a sanction. Sanctions are not to stop the war now, although they do damage Russia, the real goal of a sanction is long term economic damage to permanently shrink their economic growth on the timescale of decades.
The sanction is basically saying "okay, you're a threat to me today, and maybe I can't do much about it now, but I will shrink you and outgrow you so in 50-100 years you are no longer a threat to me at all". It is a long term play.
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The Russians claim they shoot down Ukrainian aircraft the moment the missile leaves the tube, but we're supposed to believe they shot down two Black Hawks on Tuesday and only announced it after Ukraine leaked Black Hawk footage on Friday. These Black Hawks join the 650 F-16s and 450,000 M777s Russia has 'destroyed.'
GUYS. I AM GOING TO POST A VIDEO WHERE I WILL BLUR THE UNIT LOGOS TO SHIT SO NOBODY CAN TELL I STOLE THE VIDEOS FROM THE ARCHIVE AND THEN POST IT TO THE INTERNET SAYING I KILLED ALL THE SPECIAL FORCES
And then media outlets and super smart think tank people all over the world will believe me for some reason and then everyone will be like omg all the special forces died.
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Guys I took my division and charged them into combat and while we lost 50% of our armored vehicles and 45% of our infantry are dead, and several of our HQs were destroyed and most of our best officers are dead, we captured a village where 200 once lived so we’re winning the war.
Tomorrow we will send our next division to assault the next village. That one had a population of 1200. Its actually considered a huge city, when you think about it. If we can capture that, we will send our third division to capture the hamlet behind it.
Every day we advance. That means we’re winning.
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This is what Russia does. A country that only exports oil, gas, and war. This is the city of Marinka. Image
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