Thread by @JBelcourt73

So information has been coming at us firehose style and it can be difficult to build a comprehensive picture. We know things look good but how good is it really? There are a few video posts and a Russian messaging campaign that viewed together and in context say a lot. I will

walk you through what I see. First, Russia is claiming that her "pullback" from Kharkiv was done to further her own war aims. I mean survival can be a war aim, but what does the evidence say. Adding to this Denis Pushilin is claiming his troops have it under control. Really?

Then why is he running?

https://twitter.com/minhnhat_vn/status/1568648929654472706?s=20&t=1yy97kGaJURttXkWiWSwFg

I bet he doesn't have to sit in this traffic jam of collaborators, deserters and colonists who are trying to escape. When the chief rat runs you know it's bad.

https://twitter.com/TpyxaNews/status/1568614177421377537?s=20&t=jKLWZeBu9tdeam42vhNltg

Notice I said deserters? Yeah, armies executing actual war plans vs running for their lives do not leave behind equipment and ammo. If they can't move it, they destroy it in situ.

https://twitter.com/golub/status/1568679563219066881?s=20&t=1yy97kGaJURttXkWiWSwFg

Quick side note: this video is not war related but hot hot cheetos:

https://twitter.com/golub/status/1568691670849568768?s=20&t=1yy97kGaJURttXkWiWSwFg

Ok sports update over, back to the conversation on the war. I think the videos I link to in this thread are pretty clear proof that the Russian army is not withdrawing (something done at leisure), it is not retreating (something done under pressure) it is fleeing (routed). What

do we call a routed army? A mob. How do you get a mob, that is already lacking leadership, courage and motivation to stop running short of NKVD-ish machine gun teams let alone get them into some semblance of fighting order? Classically you find men and units that are willing to

fight, give them to officers willing to lead and you attempt to stop the enemy advance so the mob will then have the time and space it needs to be rested, re-ordered, reequipped and re-energized. Anyone think Russia has the troops to block?

I mean there is the rumor of 50K Russian troops moving down from Kharkiv but if they were more than Rumor why haven't they been seen before? 3 Army Corps? Yeah it has some nice kit but it never finished training, is under manned and its mass has already been diluted by being sent

in two different directions. That cookie jar is likely empty. So maybe air power can save the day? Russia has a lot of planes and a max effort could swamp Ukrainian ADA assets. On paper this looks promising, except that Russia has had a lot of planes for the entire war but her

pilots have shown over and over again that they do not have the skill or intestinal fortitude to get in close and fight it out in contested skies and that they do not have the type of standoff capability with PGM's to deliver real time battlefield interdiction. They bomb cows and

school houses not armored columns and enemy positions. In all honestly, if the Ukrainians have the right engineering sets the only thing between them and the Russian border is time and not very much of that. For all intents and purposes, no matter how many troops Russia ends up

salvaging from the breakthrough about 1/3rd of Russia's war effort is now finished for this campaign season. Sure, you might get one of two units reformed and start the same kind of penny ante doomed local efforts but big moves.... Its over near Kharkiv until the mud dries out

in 23. That leaves Kherson and the Donbas. Despite what many are saying, I don't think Kherson was a feint. I think the talk about Kherson being a feint is itself a feint. I think Kherson is a major effort that was designed to look like a demonstration until another major effort

culminated. Those Russian troops are still in a sack after all and that is a major Ukrainian city. Now maybe Ukraine will drive straight into the Donbas and try and take pressure off of places like Bakhmut, and maybe they need some time to regroup and consolidate. But either way

keeping up the pressure in Kherson and eventually liberating the city remains a major war aim and incipient disaster #2 for the Russian Army. I know it, you know and increasingly Russians know it. Two city councils have so far spoken up. Those council members have been charged or

arrested for disgracing the Russian army through defeatist talk, but the tide appears to be changing. With thousands of newly minted POWS about to be calling home those cries are likely to get louder. They will be telling mom and dad about the hell of facing western weapons

provided by western leaders like @JohnBoozman, @SenTomCotton and @RepFrenchHill. How even individual Ukrainian soldiers like those fighting to liberate Kharkiv form the 92nd Brigade often have kit that is light years ahead of their own from tourniquets and drone provided by

charities like @MriyaAid to hearing protection provided by one of @Teoyaomiquu's many charity drives where people like us have made a real impact on the battlefield. They might even talk about certain units you don't want to face if you want to live like the @georgian_legion,

partisans or USOF... Its going to be really hard for state media and propaganda outlets to counter these phone calls over the long term with the map moving in the wrong direction for the worlds 2nd greatest army. Outside of Russia the trolls and bots are also in retreat. RT is

complaining about #NAFO and the #Fellas. Russian dis-info efforts on English language twitter are just as shambolically F'ed up and the Russian Army is. The level of copium being mainlined is incredible. We did that! We destroyed Russian information dominance: from every walk of

life, trade, profession and lifestyle we rallied to support Ukraine and beat the pants off the trolls. In so doing we elevated Ukrainian voices and in very tangible ways helped cement the P2P relations Ukraine needs to finish her shift from outsider to fully integrated western

Democracy. P2P bonds are the hardest to break. Ukraine is lost to Russia in every way. The dying isn't done yet, won't be done for some time, but if Ukraine has not yet won, Russia has lost: Slava Ukraini!

#GenocideOfUkrainians #russiaterroriststate #UkraineWillPrevail #Pedoputin #POW #Liberation @mfa_russia <--- still losing and now stuck in traffic.

@threadreaderapp unroll please