Thread by @PhillipsPOBrien

Sunday Update. The Line finally moved and it was meaningful. The Ukrainian victory that was many months in the making.

https://twitter.com/SignMyRocket/status/1568650372864004096?s=20&t=lD4Bq9sm29oHF8UC47gwjA

Did you hear there was a little breakthrough and exploitation in Kharkiv Oblast by the Ukrainians during the past week?

https://twitter.com/bradyafr/status/1568747470384939009?s=20&t=lD4Bq9sm29oHF8UC47gwjA

As Im sure youve seen, the Ukrainians have liberated more territory in a few days than Russia had seized since April 19 (start of the Battle of the Donbas. It seemed sudden and stunning, but it wasnt. It was the result of patient and methodical Ukrainian strategy and planning.

The most important thing is that by the time the Ukrainians launched their attack in Kharkiv, the area seemed to be very poorly defended by Russian troops and what troops were there were not of great quality.

@MBielieskov a research fellow in the Ukrainian Institute for Strategic Studies basically says there was no Russian defense in depth--it was not 'tiered'. So once the Ukrainians broke through the front lines, there was little to stop them.

https://twitter.com/MBielieskov/status/1568834619965046784?s=20&t=lD4Bq9sm29oHF8UC47gwjA

The reason for this is two fold. First, the summer of 2022 was too destructive for Russian forces. All the attritional losses they suffered banging their heads against the wall in the Donbas, for tiny gains, sucked too much lifeblood from their army.

Basically events that looked like victories for Russia, really were bloody seizures of territory that did not help them prosecute the war. Small political gains such as Severodonetsk, that were not worth the cost.

https://twitter.com/JennyCafarella/status/1540299259945406465?s=20&t=lD4Bq9sm29oHF8UC47gwjA

The other was the Ukrainians making such a big fuss about Kherson, which drew Russian reinforcements there during much of August. SO much so that in Kherson the Russians do have 'tiers' of defensive lines (which the Ukrainians can attrit more easily from range)

So the overall strategy was brilliant. Make Russia put forces where Ukraine can more easily damage them, while thinning out Russian forces where the Ukrainians wanted to move forward. They played Putin like a violin.

Fast movement was so important in Kharkiv because Ukraine had a juicy target that was 40-50 kms from the launch point the city of Kupiansk. A road and rail hub in the region, Kupiansk is the logistical lifeline down to Izium.

https://twitter.com/Ukrainene/status/1567972788190826496?s=20&t=lD4Bq9sm29oHF8UC47gwjA

Izium has been the main concentration point for Russian northern efforts during the Battle of the Donbas. However no Kupiansk means no Izyum. And when the Ukrainians broke out, they basically ended the northern threat from the Russian Army.

Basically Russian forces (for once) quickly saw the writing on the wall once the Ukrainians got to Kupiansk, and many seem to have run away, leaving large stores of equipment and supplies for the Ukrainians.

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1568863858260836353?s=20&t=lD4Bq9sm29oHF8UC47gwjA

This is easily the greatest victory for Ukraine since they forced the Russians to retreat around Kyiv, and has basically put Putin into a dilemma that Im not sure a brilliant strategist could deal with, and Im sure a strategic plodder like himself cannot.

What does he do? Logic would say pull out of Kherson, evacuate to the east bank of the Dnipro and try to stabilise a southern line running from the Dnipro through Donetsk and Luhansk. The Russians are short of forces, with terrible morale and maybe equipment problems.

Adapting a map from @War_Mapper Ive tried to show a rough, sensible defensive line (everything to the south of the black lines) that the RUssians might consider retreating to. Even then, I think their army is in real trouble, but it would be rational.

However even then, this might be too late and Putin, who has never seemed to grasp how the Ukrainians are fighting this war, will probably try to hang on to too much. Of course if he had any sense, he would try to end the war right now through negotiations.

So there we have it. A Ukrainian victory in Kharkiv, months in the making, that has reshaped the war entirely. Ukraine will win this war, the only question is when Putin either accepts, or is forced to accept that.

This is what I mean about Putin not realising the peril his forces are in. The Ukrainians prepared this well.

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1568973588937449472

@GeneralStaffUA tweet about the fighting in Kharkiv, note the pictures of all the captured supplies and equipment.

https://twitter.com/GeneralStaffUA/status/1568929113854943234

This could be very noteworthy. Without naming names, @GeneralStaffUA in its evening update claims Russians are pulling out of some locations in Kherson oblast. All the troops the Russians rushed there have entered a disaster zone.

https://twitter.com/generalstaffua/status/1569012646560632835