So if the RU army is is retreating to have artillery cover from the other side of the river, they face two problems.
First of all, they get squeezer in between the AFU and a river. That cant be good.
Secondly, the AFU has longer range artillery, so they might not need to worry that much about counter battery artillery since they can just stay out of range and still have complete fire control over the Russians.
This actually sounds like a retreat to me. The Russians would do that with the cover of massive amount of artillery, so they need to be closer to the Dnipro to do that.
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🧵The situation in Vovchansk is interesting. The map shows geolocated positions the last 8 days h/t @UAControlMap. When the first rumors about an encirclement at the aggregate plant, I thought it was BS. But it appears there is some truth to it, supposedly 83rd VDV.
The extent of isolation and the amount of people is unclear. Once interesting thing is the Russians committed one of their best units, 2nd Special Purpose Brigade to fight in the town. We have mostly seen poorly trained and equipped units without mechanized support in this fight
According to RU channels UA withdrew from the Filtration Plant in the east and Zenith in the south. This is good news, since avoiding an encirclement should be a priority at this point. It seems the coke plant and Kvartal high-rises are the current UA strongholds.
RU forces continue to try to fully encircle Avdiivka pushing mainly from 3 directions.
It remains to be seen if Ukraine are planning to withdraw from the east side of the city, but I think it's a pretty good idea to do so.
UA might chose to fight for the coke plant and Kvartal for a bit, but the gap for the gloc is only 3km and consists of 2 windbreaks.
I frequently get questions like:
"Are you ok?"
"What happened?"
"Why did you stop posting?"
So here we go⬇️
Yes I'm ok.
(This post is sponsored by Ramzan Fragglerov)
Time.
I have less time to follow Ukraine. I usually spent about 3-4 hours a day to just make my daily threads and going through all the information channels. To be able to keep the information reliable, I have to put in 6-10h per day. I dont have that kind of time anymore.
I lost my best friend in March, so I had go get a new one. He is getting a lot of my attention now.
🧵During the last week, Ukrainian forces have advanced 32km2 in the Robotyne direction. They are expanding their penetration of the Surovikin and have reached the outskirts of Verbove and Verbove.