Probably made some mistakes but my quick count from this thread:
Captured:
8 MT-LB
6 BTR-82
1 BTR/comm variant
2 T-72 and 1 tank
2 BMP-2 (one may be in UA service)
1 Msta-B 3-4 Msta-S
1 2S3 Akatsiya
1 Ural truck
2 KamAZ trucks
Destroyed:
TOS-1A
T-72 and 1 tank
BMP
Ural
One of the Russian military's biggest weaknesses is that it is slow to respond to changes on the battlefield. Once Kyiv received Harpoons and long-range artillery, it was clear that Russia's position on Snake Island was unsustainable, but they waited and took unnecessary losses.
Same with HIMARS. They knew for weeks that Ukraine would receive them and their capabilities are well-known, and yet Russian forces were caught flatfooted when Ukraine started using them. Their lack of a response to the Ukrainian buildup in Kharkiv is part of a pattern.
There are different explanations for why these mistakes are being made, but they indicate a very fundamental problem with Russian military leadership. The Russian military's decision-making is still very centralized but it also just makes poor decisions (or doesn't make them).
Two Russian channels are saying that Ukraine is removing its mines from the Vuhledar area and will likely begin an offensive. t.me/RtrDonetsk/9221 t.me/vladlentatarsk…
When I wrote about the battle for the Donbas, I thought that relative losses would likely be more important than territorial gains. I think Russia's gains in the Donbas were likely a Pyrrhic victory because they took heavy losses they couldn't afford, which is evident now.
Much of this comes back to Russia's unclear goals since April. Once it became clear that Russia couldn't seize or encircle Kyiv, Mykolaiv, Kharkiv, etc., its prospects for compelling Kyiv were weak. Even if Russia took all of the Donbas, that wouldn't end the war. 2/
So Russia then tried to occupy more of Ukraine but without a sustainable force to rotate (Russia committed 80% + of its BTGs which took heavy casualties). Russia needed to be able to defend an enormous front line and control the areas it was occupying. Not an easy task. 3/
A Russian telegram is now claiming that Russian forces have left Svatove, too. t.me/romanov_92/272…
Here is Svatove in Luhansk Oblast. It is 30 miles from Kupyansk, so you would expect Russia to try to defend it unless the situation is truly disastrous.
Worth being skeptical of this claim at the moment.
Russia is allegedly using Mi-26 helicopters to bring reinforcements to Izyum and Kupyansk. t.me/epoddubny/12212
RIA Novosti video reportedly showing Russian reinforcements heading in the Kharkiv direction, including BMP-2 and BM-27 Uragan MLRS. Looks like they’re from the Center grouping. t.me/rian_ru/177293