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Sep 12 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
Mixed picture for changes in prevalence in the latest ONS infection survey that's just out.
Eng - 1.41% - 1 in 71 (was 1 in 61)
Wales - 1.04% - 1 in 96 (was 1 in 64)
NI - 2.07% - 1 in 48 (was 1 in 51)
Sco - 1.98% - 1 in 51 (was 1 in 55)

UK - 1.46% - 1 in 68 (was 1 in 60)
🧵
1/7
So we are continuing to see falls in England and Wales. Northern Ireland looks to be rising again and Scotland (whose schools went back a few weeks earlier than England's) also seem to be rising slightly.

Worth bearing in mind that the results are lagged by about two weeks now.
In England the picture at the end of August was that prevalence was coming down in all regions (good news).
Similarly, prevalence was still falling in almost all age-groups except for 17-24 yos and >70s where the trend was flatter. We'll keep an eye on these over the next few weeks.
Worth bearing in mind the big lag in the ONS data.

The data from the Zoe symptom tracker app, which is more up-to-date, are showing a slight increase.
Similarly, despite the falls in testing, the dashboard also appears to be showing in increase in prevalence.
It looks like we are entering another wave, but not a variant driven one.

It can be hoped that, without a new immunity evading variant, that we won't see the same ludicrously high levels of covid that we've seen on 3 occasions already this year.

Watch this space.
ONS survey here:
ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulati…
Zoe here: health-study.joinzoe.com/data
Dashboard here: coronavirus.data.gov.uk

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More from @Kit_Yates_Maths

Kit Yates Profile picture
Sep 9
The NHS is in great peril

The cost of living crisis will exacerbate this and needs action quickly, but we must not forget that the NHS needs urgent attention too

I'm not sure people know quite how bad it is, so here's a 🧵on NHS Key Performance Indicators

Please share widely.
The ambulance crisis continues unabated.

Ambulances are still queueing outside hospitals unable to hand patients over.

2/15
devonlive.com/news/devon-new…
Although waiting times have come down form their record highs in August.

Mean waiting times for category 2 emergencies (including some heart attacks and strokes) is now 43 minutes - well over twice as long as the target of 18 minutes.

3/15
Read 16 tweets
Kit Yates Profile picture
Aug 5
A short thread on schools, on the back of the @IndependentSage session today.
TL;DR - Covid has had and is having an ongoing impact on school safety and pupil attendance and staff absence.
Education is being unacceptably disrupted.
1/6
Firstly, covid has had huge impact on the long term health of many students.
235,000 school students have had symptoms for more than 12 weeks and have their daily lives affected by those symptoms - in short they have long covid.
2/6
School absences hit extremely high levels at the end of this term.
16% of primary schools absent and a shocking 25% of secondary school pupils who should have been in school were not there.
Obviously this is not all covid, but there's no doubt covid has had a huge impact.
3/6
Read 7 tweets
Kit Yates Profile picture
Aug 5
Continued falls in covid prevalence in the latest ONS infection survey that's just out.

Eng - 3.86% - 1 in 26 (was 1 in 21)
Wales - 3.58% - 1 in 28 (was 1 in 19)
NI - 5.98% - 1 in 17 (was 1 in 16)
Sco - 4.95% - 1 in 20 (was 1 in 19)

UK - 3.96% - 1 in 25 (was 1 in 21)
🧵
1/6
Big falls in all home nations except NI, where the trend is less certain.

This is good news.

Worth remembering that these data are lagged so falls have actually been going on for a few weeks now.
2/6
Falls are now evident in all regions of England (orange this week, grey previous weeks).

Steeper in some regions and less steep in others which previously saw bigger falls (e.g. South West and South East).
3/6
Read 7 tweets
Kit Yates Profile picture
Aug 5
Short 🧵on covid hospitalisations ahead of today's @IndependentSage briefing:


Covid hospitalisations are continuing to fall.

The most recent two days reported are now back under 1000 admissions a day (though the average remains higher).
1/4
Good to see (in line with admissions) that the number of occupied mechanical ventilation beds didn't rise above the last peak (although it got close) and is now also falling.
2/4
Zooming out on admissions we can see that the last three waves have been roughly comparable in size and around half the size of the Jan 2021 peak.
These high levels of covid pressure are putting excess strain on the NHS.
3/4
Read 5 tweets
Kit Yates Profile picture
Aug 5
A short🧵on covid deaths ahead of today's @IndependentSage briefing:

TL;DR Good news is that covid deaths look to be coming down now.
1/4
Deaths within 28 days of a positive test have peaked
at a lower level than the previous two waves.
This metric is almost certainly over-estimating the true number of deaths in which covid contributed (compared to mentions on death certificate (see next tweet)).
2/4
Deaths with covid on the death certificate (by date of death) look to be flattening. Worth bearing in mind the most recent data is incomplete so more will be added to those figures in the next update.
This is quite a lagged indicator because of reporting delays.
3/4
Read 5 tweets
Kit Yates Profile picture
Jul 23
The most recent covid wave is now declining (after weeks of consecutive rises in prevalence) but that doesn't mean covid is all over.
Our government needs to be doing more to protect us against future waves.
a 🧵
1/25
Last week saw the first week-on-week fall in Covid hospitalisations in England since May. At the peak, in mid-July, an average of about 1,900 people were admitted to hospital with Covid each day in England.
2/25
This is similar to the 2,100 admissions a day for the previous surge that topped out at the end of March, and the roughly 2,000 a day for the wave at the turn of the year.
3/25
Read 26 tweets

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