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Sep 12 • 20 tweets • 6 min read
Update đź§µSeptember 12th.
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Russia has gained -9919 km2 since 20220602 assuming the entire area west of Oskil river is liberated, I'm still working on confirming this.

Interactive map: scribblemaps.com/maps/view/Oper…
This extends to Bohorodychne, I don't think the Russians were in the town, possibly on the very northern outskirts. But AFU standing in the center tells us the Russians have moved back.
Ukraine have now secured two bridgeheads north of the SD river. There is most likely a usable crossing in Oskil too, but it is unclear if the AFU has control there at this point (I believe they do)
Wargonzo reports the same
It is possibly two different location, but most likely part of the same operation. Iirc, you want two crossings plus one extra further away for a bridge head.

Svyatohirs'k, Raihorodok, Bilohorivka
Plus Oskil if that is secured.
GSUA reported 67 shelling locations today.
They reported shellings "along the entire line of contact" in kherson area.
One thing I find interesting is, there was no reports of shellings south of Izium. We do however see shellings between Slovyansk And Lyman now.
[Speculation] I think this is a possibility. RuAF retreating further than their map showed. It would make sense for them to put a blocking force around Lyman and holding east side of Kup'yans'k to allow for retreat.
[Speculation] RuAF might have withdrawn most units from the north bank of the SD river and sacrifice LDNR units to hold fortified positions to block he AFU.
This might explain why AFU are able to cross the SD river in multiple areas, but have not taken Lyman.
We also got GSUA confirmation about shelling in Staryi Karavan, which I already marked as liberated based on geolocated video.
I think it's safe to call Udy liberated.
I marked the rest of the area south of Kup'yans'k/west of the Oskil river and south of Izium as liberated.
Based on geolocated photo from Sen'kove 1/3
and that Borova township council stated the town was still occupied but their area of responsibility on the west side of Oskil was liberated.

Oskil stay contested until proven liberated as it is an important river crossing.
2/3
Any Russians south of izium would now be encircled, so I consider it that area liberated too.
According to Strelkov, Ukraine has intensified shellings south of Donetsk. Divide and Conquer?
t.me/strelkovii/3226

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More from @DefMon3

Sep 13
Update đź§µSeptember 13th.
Visit the interactive map for more details and explanations.

Todays presentation is brought to you by vodka Vlad.

Interactive map: scribblemaps.com/maps/view/Oper… Image
GSUA reported 70 Shelling locations today.

Nothing on FIRMS Image
Read 12 tweets
Sep 12
I made this yesterday.
This is how I see this ending.
Have fun calling me an idiot later if I'm wrong.
Arrows inspired by GeromanAT Image
Image
Image
Read 8 tweets
Sep 12
This is just by the bridge Kupyansk.
I geolocated this place a few days ago.
This view is from 49.71005, 37.61519
@GeoConfirmed ImageImage
Read 4 tweets
Sep 12
They need those units to defend the kremlin.

"The military command of the Russian Federation suspends the sending of new, already formed units to the territory of Ukraine." - GSUA Image
Imagine this scenario.
The Russian army retreats from Ukraine after getting their asses kicked.
They are put in defensive positions along the border.
They are extremely unhappy because they lost most of their friends for nothing.
Read 5 tweets
Sep 11
So if the RU army is is retreating to have artillery cover from the other side of the river, they face two problems.
First of all, they get squeezer in between the AFU and a river. That cant be good.
Secondly, the AFU has longer range artillery, so they might not need to worry that much about counter battery artillery since they can just stay out of range and still have complete fire control over the Russians.
Read 4 tweets
Sep 11
Do we need a meme thread today?
Top contributors of military aid to Ukraine, by the institute of defmon3:
1 USA
2 Poland
3 UK
4 Russia
5 Canada
Read 6 tweets

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