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Sep 12 • 4 tweets • 4 min read
What if NY's Dem House map wasn't blocked in court & FL+OH GOP gerrymanders were?

See:
NY D map davesredistricting.org/join/22e2010f-…
Nonpartisan OH map
davesredistricting.org/join/c0c55ef9-…
FL legislature GOP map blocked by DeSantis davesredistricting.org/join/a7087256-…
Fully nonpartisan FL map
davesredistricting.org/join/483818cf-… ImageImageImageImage
In reality, Biden won 226 House seats & the median #MI08 by 2% (his national margin was 4.5%)

With the NY Dem map, OH nonpartisan map, & FL lege GOP map, Biden wins 231 seats & the median #CO08 by 4.6%

Add the nonpartisan FL map & Biden wins 234 seats & the median #PA17 by 5.8%
Had NY Dems' gerrymander not been struck down 4-3, had the Ohio GOP's gerrymander been struck down & redrawn before the election instead of delayed past 2022, & had FL GOP lawmakers not caved to DeSantis, the national congressional map's median seat could've had no partisan bias
Keeping the court-drawn NY map & adding the nonpartisan FL & OH maps, Biden wins 233 seats & the median by 4.6% (#CO08).

So simply replacing the GOP gerrymanders in FL & OH with fair maps compliant with their state constitutions could've eliminated the pro-GOP median seat bias

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More from @PoliticsWolf

Stephen Wolf Profile picture
Dec 16, 2021
PA's redistricting commission has proposed a very fair state House map. Biden won 102 districts to Trump's 101, & Biden won the median seat by his statewide margin. Sharp contrast to the prior GOP gerrymanders that elected GOP majorities even when Dems won more votes in 2012/2018
Under the current GOP gerrymander of Pennsylvania's state House, Trump won a 109-94 majority of districts despite Biden winning the state by 1 point, & Trump won the median district by 3 points. The commission's proposal would strongly reduce the odds of future GOP minority rule
Here are the Dave's Redistricting versions of the Pennsylvania bipartisan commission's proposed legislative maps. The state House map is very fair & is likely to prevent a repeat of last decade's GOP minority rule
Senate: davesredistricting.org/join/028ce4a0-…
House: davesredistricting.org/join/bcb680dd-…
Read 5 tweets
Stephen Wolf Profile picture
Nov 9, 2021
Nevada is one of the very few states where Dems control redistricting. They've proposed a modest gerrymander aiming to keep the 3-1 Dem majority, but all 3 Dem seats only backed Biden by 7-8 points & could be vulnerable in a GOP-favoring year. DRA version: davesredistricting.org/join/5ec729ee-…
If Nevada Dems were willing to propose a Texas GOP-style extreme congressional gerrymander, they could have made all 3 Dem districts go for Biden by 14-17 points instead of 7-8, but connecting Reno to Las Vegas was probably never going to fly for Dems davesredistricting.org/join/ca4af7d2-…
Nevada Dems also unveiled legislative gerrymanders that give them an unfair edge (though not nearly as big as the GOP did with GA, etc.). Biden won the median Assembly & Senate seats by 8 & 6 points more than statewide, respectively davesredistricting.org/join/a8089c68-… davesredistricting.org/join/ce311e6d-…
Read 4 tweets
Stephen Wolf Profile picture
Nov 2, 2021
NEW: Voting rights are on the ballot today in three key states: Virginia, New York, & Pennsylvania. My new story looks at the key ballot measures, legislative & governor elections, & judicial elections that could reshape voting rights [thread 1/9] dailykos.com/stories/2021/1…
Virginia Dems have passed dozens of voting reforms since taking power in 2019 for the first time in decades, passing automatic & same-day voter registration, an Election Day holiday, & much more. But that progress is threatened if the GOP wins today
VA's last 2 Dem governors used executive orders to end lifetime felony disenfranchisement, leaving only those in prison unable to vote. But if Glenn Youngkin (R) wins, he could restore a racist Jim Crow remnant that until 2016 had banned 1 in 5 Black voters, 5x the rate of whites
Read 9 tweets
Stephen Wolf Profile picture
Nov 2, 2021
North Carolina state House Republicans have passed their new state House gerrymander in committee. Voting rights advocates sued last week, & the 4-3 Dem state Supreme Court could block it like the state courts did with the GOP’s past gerrymanders in 2019 southerncoalition.org/breaking-civil…
North Carolina Republicans are so blatantly dismantling Voting Rights Act-protected Black legislative districts that it seems they’re counting on SCOTUS killing off the rest of the VRA. With a more sensible judiciary, this map would get struck down in a heartbeat
North Carolina Republicans have passed their new state House gerrymander in the full state House, dismantling certain Black districts protected by the Voting Rights Act. A lawsuit was already filed as noted upthread
Read 5 tweets
Stephen Wolf Profile picture
Oct 29, 2021
Voting rights advocates have filed the first North Carolina redistricting lawsuit of the 2020s cycle, & it assuredly won't be the last in a state that has seen more litigation over GOP gerrymandering than nearly any other. The GOP is drafting maps that crack several Black seats
Notably, this lawsuit was filed in state court instead of conservative-dominated federal court. Dems hold a 4-3 majority on North Carolina's Supreme Court in the event that any redistricting lawsuits eventually reach them next year
Voting rights advocates filed their lawsuit noted in my previous tweet roughly an hour after North Carolina Republicans filed their new gerrymander proposals as bills. See @will_doran's story for more details on the proposed maps: newsobserver.com/news/politics-…
Read 4 tweets
Stephen Wolf Profile picture
Oct 29, 2021
If Virginia Democrats hold onto their state House majority on Tuesday, one critical reform they should pass is a constitutional amendment to move state elections from odd to even years. Turnout could *double* & become much more demographically representative of the citizenry
Just imagine how differently the last several state elections could have played out had Virginia held them in high-turnout even years instead of in odd years when voters of color, young voters, & low income voters are less likely to turn out compared to older wealthy white voters
Constitutional amendments in Virginia must pass both before & after a state election followed by a referendum, so Dems would have to hold the legislature in 2021 & 2023 & get voters to approve an amendment in 2024, meaning even-year state elections would be a ways off regardless
Read 4 tweets

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