This is a rather extraordinary claim that is being made today by the Ukrainians and some western intelligence--that Russia, in the midst of the Kharkiv collapse, has ceased sending reinforcements to its struggling army in Ukraine.
The @GeneralStaffUA update this evening provides some details. Basically they cant convince the troops to go (longer paragraph in center). A combination of soldiers hearing about all the deaths, the terrible treatment of wounded, etc
Ukraine will want to take advantage of this, because if it continues there should be other failures on the Russian line. Hard to see how they rebuild the new line in Kharkiv along the Oskil River, for instance, with the rag-tag group left over from the past 10 days.
Also seems likely that Russian forces near Lyman will soon be cut off.
With no new troops coming from anywhere, the whole line might collapse. Huge efforts should be made to help Ukraine get its logistics sorted to start a new operation. Theyve advanced so far, so fast, that they undoubtedly will need to regroup. But this is a real opportunity.
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Excellent, we are starting to get the Ukrainian analysis of the Kharkiv operation (actually linked Kherson-Kharkiv operations), and its important to pay alot of attention. The Ukrainian position has been often overlooked in western reporting (to its great detriment).
Unlike western reports over the summer, for instance, the Ukrainians had a much better understanding of how the fighting was progressing, why the war was still trending in Ukraine's direction, and they were not deceived by the Russian Army's unthinking ability to blow stuff up.
A number of really important points being made here. In 2021 much was made about how Russian maneuvers in Zapad 2021 were a confirmation of the improvement in their capabilities. Yet, we can see now, they were able to do very little in the real world that they claimed...
to do in the manuevers. It was a general analytical failing in the estimate given by many, taking Russian claims too much at face value. Military maneuvers are often deeply deceptive. Mussolini regularly used them to make it seem his army was more capable.
In the case of Russia-Ukraine, its worth noting that it was the Ukrainians who have been able to pull off the greater combined arms operations, though the concentration before the war was almost all on the Russians.
As Im sure youve seen, the Ukrainians have liberated more territory in a few days than Russia had seized since April 19 (start of the Battle of the Donbas. It seemed sudden and stunning, but it wasnt. It was the result of patient and methodical Ukrainian strategy and planning.
All these stories of Russian retreat and panicked evacuation will make things far worse for the Russia army. How will it draw a new line of resistance with too few troops and a crazy misshapen area to try and hold. The line was already too long, and now might be longer.
Right now one of the biggest problems tne Ukrainians are going to have is dealing with their own logistics As their forces have to try and cover an increasingly wide area that the Russians are abandoning. It won’t be easy to keep track of everything
Though one advantage the Ukrainians will have is that once the Russians leave, the local population should be able to seize control of governmental infrastructure by themselves.
This argument is going to run and run and we won’t settle it here, but such small number of tanks used by the Ukrainians against a weak Russian force does not make a convincing case that the tank is a high priority system. More the opposite imho. Russians had more tanks it seems
Quick question. Are there any videos of Ukrainian tanks actually taking part in these fast advances of the last few days. Ive heard of 15 tanks in the story above. All the videos Ive seen are of light vehicles and APCs. Are there pictures or stories of...
Ukr tanks being particularly decisive. Otoh, Ive numerous pictures of destroyed or abandoned Russian tanks. Might it be that one of the reasons the Ukrainians have moved so quickly is that they are only using small numbers of tanks?
I can think of only a very few non Ukrainian pundits who did not grossly underestimate Ukraine before Feb 24 (after Feb 24 It didn’t take any understanding to see who understood the reality). There was @MarkHertling , @general_ben . Who else?
And yes, I don’t consider myself a pundit, but suppose then I go on that list. I nailed my colors to the mast in a January when I said the Russian military was grossly overrated and the Ukrainians would fight very effectively for their freedom. thecritic.co.uk/the-new-appeas…