This is the most important logistical observation in today's ISW report.

Ukraine's "Kupyansk Blitzkrieg" has been running mainly on captured Russian vehicles, fuel & ammo for the last three days.

And the most important captured Russian vehicles are train engines and rail
1/6
...car rolling stock.

The Ukrainian capture of this Russian railway rolling stock filled with supplies is why the Russian Army abandoned all of the Kharkiv Oblast.

The Russians did this to the Nazis in Operation Bagration.

2/6

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation…
The Russians knew how Ukraine was going to do it to them and their collective guilty consciousnesses over their genocidal ethnic cleansing of Ukrainians did the rest.

3/6
The current Ukrainian mobile offensive can likely last another five to ten days moving dozens of kilometers a day simply on these railway supplies.

This now visible Russian logistical cascading event failure was the reason for my 10 Sep 2022 thread.

4/6
Ukrainian advances of twenty kilometers a day for five more days using these railway supplies are on the low end of possibilities.

Russia's public refusal to put any new Russian Army units inside Ukraine while retreating others out of Donetsk is another confirmation
5/6
... of this battlefield reality.

People on Twitter need to be thinking in terms of the complete liberation of all of Donbass by Ukraine in the next two to four weeks.

🇺🇦🇺🇦Slava Ukraini🇺🇦🇺🇦

6/6

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More from @TrentTelenko

Sep 12
The other possibility is this is a Kherson style demonstration to freeze Russian forces in place while AFU armored columns sweeps into the LPR/DPR territory from the north.

They are the schwerpunkt of Russia's "Special Operation."

1/4
When the LPR/DPR fall. The AFU pushing waves of displaces Russian Donbas colonists into Russia like paste out of a tube of toothpaste stomped on by Andre the Giant will freeze the Russian Army in border control/regime protection duties for several weeks.

2/4
This will be long enough to roll up all remaining Russian forces in Ukraine.

The Russian Army is simply too small to maintain control of any territory inside Ukraine's pre-2014 borders without the Russian LPR/DPR colonist forces, to include Crimea.

3/4
Read 4 tweets
Sep 12
Russian & colonial militia forces in Lyman are flanked with AFU units sitting on their supply lines to the North.

They can run or fight/lose/surrender.

It doesn't look like Russian forces have any good defensive line geography East of Donetsk city.
1/
AFU troops are saying the RuAF abandoned all of their equipment & ammo in Izyum intact. Other reports say the same across other areas of Kharkiv. This should be enough to equip another 10k-20k AFU troops.

Russia has an extremely fragile remaining force
2/
ft.com/content/72afd7…
The thing is a retreat to a 'Donetsk city line' after all the other defeats will be like the last French hold line in 1940.

There won't be enough people both equipped & willing to fight.

The human/moral factor with the LPR/DPR colonial militia's

3/
Read 5 tweets
Sep 11
Russia is not going to like Ukraine playing by Russia's rules on civilian power grids.

Russia's power grid is wide open to Ukrainian Alibaba drone/DYI cruise missile strikes.

Now Ukraine has every incentive to go there.🧵
1/
And Russia's very centralized, corruption ridden, and economically sanctioned power grid is far less robust than most people realize.

See @Aviation_Intel here for what I am referring too regards the drone.

2/
Image
The damage such drone can do is all out of proportion to their size.

Spools of carbon fiber thread are small, light and highly effective at stopping the electric power grid.

They have been available since the early 1990's

3/
apnews.com/article/c3c07b…
Read 17 tweets
Sep 11
This has been my favorite Ukrainian war propaganda painting thus far.

It very well captures the essence of the Ukrainian wartime cultural esthetic:

“Иду на вы.”

“I’m Coming To Get You.”

War Termination 🧵
1/
The phrase “Иду на вы.” (“I’m Coming To Get You.”) originated with the 10th century Prince of Kyiv, Sviatoslav I.

The 1869 drawing below represents Prince Sviatoslav I. His ‘sidelock’ style haircut has its roots in the Viking era of Ukrainian history.
2/ Image
The previous image is an 1869 interpretation of a written record, in the “Primary Chronicle”, of Grand Prince Sviatoslav I (son of Ingvar and Helga) circa 972 AD, AKA the scourge of the Turkic Judaeic Khazar Empire, and well known Viking militarist –
3/
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sviatosla…
Read 12 tweets
Sep 11
@MIL_STD had a really outstanding thread on the HIMARS launcher back in July 2022 that deserves a complete read through (retweet below)

In this logistical 🧵 I really want you all to focus on what @MIL_STD showed of the munition pod supply chain.

1/10
This is a 5-ton FMTV truck with material handling equipment (MHE) Hiab crane moving the munition pods.

This is the last step before & after the launcher fires the pod, because you backhaul the pods after use.

3/10
This tweet's video clip shows how the launcher is loaded.

Please carefully note how few people are required to do this compared to Russian Grad or Smerch multiple rocket launchers.

There are no bad backs, futzing with rocket fuzes or igniters.

4/10
Read 9 tweets
Sep 11
China is deploying its version of the Switchblade loitering munition that seems intermediate in size between the American Switchblade 300 and 600.

The supplementation/displacement of direct fire, rocket based, AT-missiles with indirect fire propeller driven drones in the
1/3
...same role will be a defining trend of ground combat in the 21st century.

Think every armored fighting vehicle a drone controlling, indirect gunfire, platform with point defense to be survivable.

It is going to be much more "multi-domain" as air & electromagnetic

2/3
...superiority will be required right down to the platoon, Squad/section, and vehicle/soldier level.

And if you don't have the full golf bag of technological clubs, some other military will eat you alive on the battlefield.

3/3
Read 4 tweets

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