Thread by @imetatronink

🧵Brief Ukraine War Update

I had intended to publish new blog commentary today in relation to the ongoing war in Ukraine. But given that I now perceive an important decision has been forced upon Russia, I have opted to delay my new post until at least tomorrow.

1/

In the meantime, I took the opportunity today to create a new substack blog, and to migrate all of my older blog posts to that platform.

I will, over the course of the next hour or so, tweet out new substack links from that body of older posts.

imetatronink.substack.com

2/

Meanwhile, I will simply note that the United States and its willing NATO vassals have deliberately raised the stakes of this conflict such that Russia will very likely now feel compelled to make a momentous decision in deference to the power of perception and narrative.

3/

The empire has played the "ace up its sleeve" in Ukraine.

Over the past several months they methodically constructed a modest strike force of hoarded NATO weaponry and a briefly trained new cadre of Ukrainian soldiers – most of them fresh conscripts.

4/

In addition to these new Ukrainian brigades, they also assembled multiple brigades of NATO troops – “foreign volunteers” – to serve as shock troops for an envisioned “counter-offensive”. The total count of these NATO soldiers is unknown, but is likely at least 3000 - 5000.

5/

I'm persuaded the Russians were clearly cognizant of this build-up. They also clearly provided an irresistibly tempting target for the assembled force, and deliberately created a vacuum into which it would be permitted to advance. What they plan to do next remains to be seen.

6/

In the meantime, the narrative of an ingeniously glorious Ukrainian counter-offensive holds sway in the public perception – indeed, it has assumed a power far beyond the reality of its battlefield significance. This is true both in the west and in Russia itself.

7/

Indeed, it is the power of this narrative that, although not rooted in the objective calculus of war, is nonetheless almost certain to constrain Russia to respond such that its influence can be at least mitigated, if not altogether defeated.

We shall soon see ...

8/end