1/ UTVD Operational Update: ZSU Counter Offensive in Kharkiv, 10-12 Sep 22. The past 48 hrs continues to see ZSU forces exploiting their breakout from the T2110 Hwy line between Balakliya & Semenivka. The resulting advance has caused the defeat of the SVRF in Kharkiv. Image
2/ The successful liberation of Kupyansk by ZSU forces on 10 September provided the necessary pivot of operations to turn the weak left flank of OGORF-V and attack to seize the decisive geographic points of Velyki Burluk & Vovchansk on 11 September 2022.
3/ The defeats in Kharkiv & Izyum has forced the Russians to form a defensive line along the Oskil River. The ZSU has achieved a major political objective, the liberation of Kharkiv Oblast. pointhttps://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1569243133925367809?s=20&t=dtlIhdkgAeudyYrl2G2Qvw
4/ ZSU forces are now well positioned to carry their offensive into northern Luhansk Oblast and threaten the weakened right flank and rear area of Operational Group of Russian Forces Rostov-North & Center.
5/ The situation remains very fluid, stay tuned for further in-depth analysis on the events of the past several weeks and how this will likely shape the trajectory of the war in the coming weeks.

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More from @JominiW

Sep 10
1/ UTW – Operational Update: ZSU Counter Offensive in the Donbas, 04-10 Sep. The ZSU is engaged in what may likely become the most stunningly successful counteroffensive since the IDFs OPERATION GAZELLE during the 1973 Yom Kippur War. #ukrainecounteroffensive #UkraineWillWin Image
2/ The ZSU has successfully utilized the concept & practices of reflexive control to create maneuver space for a division-equivalent force to penetrate, exploit, and breakthrough the dangerously vulnerable left flank and rear of the Operational Group of Russian Forces Izyum.
3/ By taking the time to properly shape the conditions for success, the ZSU has in one-week undone months of VSRF operational progress. As of the timing of this assessment, ZSU forces have already pushed further north into northern Kharkiv Oblast toward Velykyi Burluk.
Read 6 tweets
Aug 17
1/ Ukrainian TVD, Day 159-172. The first half of August has seen an emerging shift in the strategic initiative moving decidedly away from the Russia to that of Ukraine. With fall fast approaching the next several weeks may prove as critical as the early days of the war. #Ukraine Image
2/ I have included a few charts in this thread that address common phrase and acronyms used in the graphics below with their corresponding definitions. This listing will expand as needed. ImageImageImage
3/ Weather Outlook. Forecast for the next 10-days will see temps range from 35-28 C during the day & 22-18 C at night. Cloud cover will not degrade air & missile strikes, while 71.5%-night illumination will significantly aid ZSU SOF/Partisan activity. Image
Read 20 tweets
Aug 3
1/ Ukrainian TVD, Day 148-158. The last 10-days of July saw the Ground Forces of the Russian Federation (SVRF) offensive in northern Donetsk stall while the Armed Forces of Ukraine (ZSU) make incremental gains in Kherson as they prepare for a counteroffensive. #UkraineRussianWar Image
2/ Weather Outlook. The 10-day Forecast will see temps range from 33-27 C during the day & 18-17 C at night. Cloud cover will not degrade air & missile strikes, while 25%-night illumination will aid ZSU infiltration activity. Wind Speed & direction favors SVRF artillery. Image
3/ Kharkiv OD. The Kharkiv OD remains an important disruption zone for the SVRF & ZSU. Intense positional engagements continue all along the Forward Line of Troops (FLOT) with increased Russian raids against likely lightly defended ZSU sectors. #Kharkiv
Read 18 tweets
Jul 24
1/ Ukraine SVKO, Day 124-148. Russian Strategic Aerospace Operations (SVKO) remains focused east of the Dnieper River, particularly in north central Donetsk Oblast and along the Black Sea Coast in the Odesa region. #UkraineRussiaWar Image
2/ Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) have been conducting an extensive suppression of enemy air defense (SEAD) campaign for the past 3-4 weeks here with little results. Air engagements between VKS & Ukrainian fights in the Odesa region has led to minor losses on both sides.
3/ It is likely the Russian MoD intends to severely weaken Ukrainian Air Defenses in the south to allow for VKS air & missile strikes to have greater latitude in interdicting the flow of military supplies from west Ukraine into the east.
Read 6 tweets
Jul 23
1/ Black Sea OTMO, Day 124-148. The Russian blockade of Odesa has been severely degraded as UAF air, artillery, & UCAV pressure (notably the introduction of improved anti-ship missile capabilities like the Harpoon) has loosened the Russian grip on sea lanes of the NW Black Sea.
2/ The inability of VKS & SVRF air defense systems to provide an umbrella of protection from Snake Island for VMF vessels against Ukrainian air and maritime forces has also been a decisive factor in freeing the NW Black Sea of a VMF presence.
3/ The danger to VMF task forces in sustaining the Russian presence on Snake Island coupled with the cost of maintaining its defense proved too high for the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation (VSRF).
Read 6 tweets
Jul 22
1/ Ukrainian TVD, Day 124-148. Late June to mid-July has seen a host of developments throughout the Ukrainian Theater of Military Action. The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation (VSRF) have managed to secure the Luhansk Oblast but struggle to produce results on other fronts. Image
2/ Since it has been over three weeks since my last thread, I will be breaking up my normal update over the course of several days. There is a lot of data to analysis and discuss, therefore today’s thread will be a short one on the major events of the past three weeks.
3/ Weather Outlook. The ten-day Forecast will see temps range from 32-23 C during the day and 19-13 C at night. Cloud cover will not degrade air & missile strikes, while moderate night illumination will aid UAF infiltration activity. Wind Speed & direction favors UAF artillery. Image
Read 13 tweets

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