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Lucian Kim

@Lucian_Kim

Sep 10

In 2014, I spent several days in Izium, Ukraine, after Russian proxy forces withdrew from nearby Sloviansk, the first target of the Russian-backed insurgency. Izium was sleepy and peaceful.

But there were reminders of past conflicts, like a Soviet monument to 94 Bolshevik fighters killed by White forces in 1919...

... or a memorial to the Red Army soldiers who gave their lives beating back German invaders in WW2.

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Lucian Kim

@Lucian_Kim

May 12

@kennaninstitute

Not without reason is Putin often called a master tactician but poor strategist. From a strategic point of view, Putin's attack on Ukraine has thrown back Russia to its weakest position since World War II.
My latest piece for @kennaninstitute: wilsoncenter.org/blog-post/russ…

Strategically, the status quo ante was favorable to Russia, since the simmering conflict was draining Ukraine's scarce resources and hobbling its aspirations to join the EU and NATO. The US, Germany and France were uninterested in inflaming tensions with Russia over Ukraine.

Russia's isolation in its own neighborhood has nothing to do with NATO; its lack of true allies is a strategic disaster entirely of Putin's own making. Ukraine is the most egregious example of how Russia's postimperial phantom pains have clouded the Kremlin's strategic thinking.

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Lucian Kim

@Lucian_Kim

Mar 11

Putin has made a grave miscalculation, the magnitude of which we are just beginning to understand. The longer it goes on, the more Putin’s war will pose new dangers to Russia—and the survival of his own regime. wilsoncenter.org/blog-post/puti…

The secrecy with which Putin made his fateful decision was embodied by the spectacle of his spluttering foreign intelligence chief, who in a televised meeting in February showed a complete lack of knowledge of Putin’s designs on Ukraine.

Either Putin believes his own propaganda that Ukraine is run by drug-addled neo-Nazis; Russia’s intelligence services are so incompetent that they totally underestimated Ukrainians’ fighting spirit; or Putin’s generals knew the true situation but were too scared to tell him.

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Lucian Kim

@Lucian_Kim

Feb 21

Questions after Putin recognizes separatist statelets DNR and LNR:
-Where are their borders? Current front line? Or administrative borders of Donetsk and Luhansk regions, most of which Kyiv still controls? One nightmare scenario is DNR/LNR seeking to expand with Russian help.

-How does Kyiv react to further encroachment on Ukrainian sovereignty? Putin is openly challenging Zelensky to give up more Ukrainian territory without a fight. Even if Kyiv refrains, Putin will find pretext if he wants to escalate.

-How does West react? If Russian military openly enters DNR/LNR "on invitation" of puppet leaders, does that constitute a "minor incursion" or an "invasion," and what sanctions will be activated?

Read 4 tweets

Lucian Kim

@Lucian_Kim

Feb 21

Putin begins his fireside chat on recognition of Ukrainian separatist statelets by calling into question the legitimacy of modern Ukraine's borders.

Putin attacks Lenin and Communist Party of Soviet Union for destroying "historical Russia," says that despite "injustice, deception and plundering of Russia," Russians recognized and even helped newly independent states, including Ukraine, after collapse of USSR.

Putin: Elections in Ukraine serve as cover for redistribution of wealth among oligarchic clans; corruption has eaten away at Ukrainian statehood. Radicals took advantage of people's discontent in 2014.

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Lucian Kim

@Lucian_Kim

Feb 18

I covered 2008 Russia-Georgia War. First potshots and shelling from separatist region whose residents Putin had given Russian passports, then baseless Kremlin claims of "genocide" and massive invasion by Russian troops who had just finished exercises. Not exactly a new playbook.

The difference will be in how Kyiv reacts. Georgia was led by impetuous leader who struck back believing the US had his back; Ukrainians have few illusions about what happens next if they take Putin's bait.

Even as Ukrainians sensibly show restraint, there's no defense against manufactured crisis. By accusing Kyiv of imminent assault and calling for evacuation of civilians to Russia, Kremlin-backed separatists lay groundwork for images of refugees, "genocide" and calls to action.

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