Thread by @MarkHertling

Ukraine's Army was likely as surprised as so many others with the speed & success of their Kharkiv offensive over the last five days. It is & continues to be brilliant.

But as one who saw both success & failure in combat, I have some concerns...

Here a 🧵on some thoughts.
1/

Like others, I'm euphoric about UA's advance in Kharkiv & Kherson & their continued active defense on the Donbas front.

A brilliant advance resulting from a solid maneuver plan, deception, technologically advanced weapons, use of intelligence, leadership & morale.

.@PhillipsPOBrien perfectly describes the action as a Ukrainian military "masterstroke" in @TheAtlantic (attached).

And while @laraseligman suggests western officials were surprised by the speed of the advance... 2/

theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…

...in this solid piece, I'd sure Ukraine's army were also stunned when their force - w/ great leadership, high morale, good tactics - shaped the battlefield, met a dispersed RU force with low morale, & "ran thru them like crap thru a goose." (Patton) 3/

politico.com/news/2022/09/1…

Yes, it's been an uplifting week of news from UKR.

But there's lots of fighting remaining.
-RU forces fled dozens of villages in Kharkiv Oblast (an 12k sq mile area, 1/2 of West Virginia), & have relocated to Belgorod in Russia or Luhansk (about 10K sq mi, size of Vermont). 4/

RU commanders will likely try to defend the key logistics hub of Kupyansk on the Donets River.

To the south (in northern Donetsk), RU forces are likely shoring defenses and probing with artillery near Sloviansk, Spirne, Mykolaivka, & other cities, believing the UA might continue their advance...

...while RU military & their families leave those locations. 5/

In Kherson Oblast (size of Maryland), there's not as much attention, but UA continues offensive operations there.

Remember, RU forces that moved there are now fighting & sustaining casualties in an attrition fight.

I still see mass RU POWs in the future. 6/

So, what are my concerns?

Three things:
Tempo, fatigue, black swans.

First, tempo. 7/

Tempo is defined in US Army doctrine (ADP 3-90) as"the rate of speed & rhythm of military operations with respect to the enemy's activities."

Tempo doesn't always mean "fast." Sometimes it's fast, sometimes it's slow...tempo is based on capabilities & support to the fight. 8/

The commander determines the tempo of the ops based on the ability to maintain the initiative for offensive operations.

Better said: "Don't go too far, too fast, without thinking about everyone that's trying to keep up (artillery, intelligence, fuel, ammo, supplies)." 9/

At times, a commander will see an opening & want to push.

But it's important to remember supplies, intel, arty, air defense, engineers...all drive tempo.

2 mentors taught me:
GEN Franks: "know when to go fast & when to slow down"
GEN Dempsey: "Be quick, but don't hurry!" 10/

In truth, there are some elements of Ukraine's force that can't "keep up" with the front line fighters. That's not an insult, it's an understanding of the UA force.

Right now, UA field commanders - while excited about gains - must consider operational tempo.

It's required. 11/

2d Item: Fatigue.

Whether it was Vince Lombardi, Patton, or Shakespeare who said it, it's true: "Fatigue makes cowards of us all."

Forces in the attack can attack for about 4-5 days without breaking down.

That's not equipment, that's human beings. 12/

My experience in combat - as well as at our Army's national training center, where we study this - is that units will begin to fail if they aren't rested on day 5 of an offensive.

And commanders/leaders start making really bad decisions after 3 days of little/no sleep. 13/

We're waking up each day -after 5 days - looking at reports of UA's advance & saying "hope they go farther, take more!"

UA forces are whipped right now. Not just caused by movement & lack of sleep, but emotions associated with fighting.

I anticipate some needed "pauses." 14/

Finally, "black swans."

"An unpredictable event beyond what is normally expected in a situation that may have severe consequences. Black swans are characterized by unpredictability, rarity, severe effects & the widespread insistence they were obvious in hindsight." 15/

-What are the effects of Putin targeting power infrastructure in many UKR cities?
-What are effects of damage to Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Station?
-How will UA handle the capture of thousands of RU POWs?
-What is the status of UKR economy, labor market...& grain shipments? 16/

-Will there be a coup at the Kremlin? Who might succeed Putin, and what will it mean?
-Will UKR attempt to recover Crimea?
-What has become of UKR citizens (and children) who have been shipped to camps and unknown RU locations?
-What if RU uses WMD? 17/

All are Issues that have "severe consequences" that require thought, as we all cheer UA's actions on the battlefield.

All that said, I'm thankful for those in Ukraine who continue to fight for their sovereignty against an illegal invasion...and those who support them! 18/18