What do Russians think about Ukrainian counteroffensive? A preview: as 🇷🇺 state narrative shifted from initial denial to (partial) acknowledgment of 🇺🇦 gains, Russians increasingly (a) believe that an offensive is occurring & (b) view it as a threat. russiawatcher.com/counteroffensi… 1/
At first, 🇷🇺 media denied that 🇺🇦 offensive was taking place (ria.ru/20220829/khers…). Then they claimed 🇺🇦 had tried but failed to mount an offensive (ria.ru/20220829/nastu…). 2/
Recently, 🇷🇺 has acknowledged "regrouping" and "temporary successes" of 🇺🇦 mil (radiosputnik.ria.ru/20220912/lnr-1…). As the narrative has shifted, so have Russians' beliefs abt what's going on in 🇺🇦. 3/
As 🇷🇺 media changed its tune, ordinary Russians have increasingly come to believe that a counteroffensive is taking place. On 8/30, ~60% of our respondents thought 🇺🇦 launched a counteroffensive; by 9/13, ~77% thought so. 4/ 
At the same time, Russian respondents increasingly view Ukrainian actions in the south and east of 🇺🇦 as a significant threat to Russian forces there: from ~41% on 8/30 to ~60% on 9/13. 5/
But Russians are divided abt how 🇷🇺 govt shld respond. We asked a Q where respondents cld select multiple policy options. ~24% said 🇷🇺 should launch a renewed attack on Kyiv, while ~23% thought they shld resume negotiations. Only 3% were in favor of a tactical nuclear strike. 6/
See more details abt these questions on our website: russiawatcher.com/counteroffensi…. END/
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