Russia Watcher Profile picture
The Russia Watcher is a daily tracking survey of Russian public opinion, run by political scientists at @Princeton @PUPolitics. Learn more at https://t.co/sdTCXt9Tjb.
Sep 25, 2023 β€’ 8 tweets β€’ 2 min read
Update about how Russians get their news about the war in πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦. The 4 most popular info sources are: TV, internet publications, social media, and family/friends. πŸ“» & πŸ—žοΈ are far less popular. There have been some time trends in how frequently ppl get news from these sources. 1/ Image The clearest trend is a steady decrease in the frequency w/ which respondents get info abt the "special military operations" from family & friends. In summer 2022, ~50% got daily info abt the SMO from fam/friends; now it's ~40%. 2/
Jun 25, 2023 β€’ 4 tweets β€’ 2 min read
How did Russian public opinion respond to Prigozhin's rebellion? Approval of Prigozhin tanked from >50% approval rating on June 23 to ~30% on June 25. Note that we code DK/NA responses as approval=0 in this graph. These are averages w/ a daily sample size of n=500. 🧡 1/ Here are the distribution of attitudes across the 4-point Likert scale. 2/

Jan 24, 2023 β€’ 8 tweets β€’ 3 min read
πŸ“Š What do our respondents think about the Wagner Group and its founder Yevgeny Prigozhin? A majority say they approve of their activities: ~54% for Wagner & ~50% for Prigozhin. Uncertainty is fairly high, w/ ~29% (W) & 33% (P) saying "don't know" or "prefer not to answer." 🧡 1/ ImageImage Disapproval ratings are at ~17% for each (~10-11% completely disapprove & ~7% generally disapprove). Wagner appears to have slightly higher approval than Prigozhin, perhaps because of greater name recognition. But the pattern is, unsurprisingly, very similar for both. 2/
Nov 23, 2022 β€’ 8 tweets β€’ 3 min read
πŸ“Š How much do Russians believe common πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί state propaganda narratives abt πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦? We asked ppl to what extent they agree w/ various statements. (1) "Satanists sects influence the Ukr. govt." Supporters of the "special mil op" seem to buy this narrative, while opponents don't. 🧡 1/ (2) "The majority of the Ukrainian leadership are Nazis." Almost everyone who said they support the SMO agreed w/ this statement, & ~59% strongly agreed. SMO opponents were more divided on this, although a plurality disagree (~46%). Uncertainty is higher among SMO opponents. 2/
Nov 20, 2022 β€’ 6 tweets β€’ 2 min read
πŸ’­ What words do Russians associate w/ Volodymyr Zelenskyy? Part 3 of our word association test. Most common words are "president," "Ukraine," "clown", "comedian," "drug addict/junkie" (Π½Π°Ρ€ΠΊΠΎΠΌΠ°Π½). Also prominent are "actor," "Nazi," "enemy," "criminal," "fascist," & "war." 1/ Image We asked respondents to list the first 3 words that come to mind when thinking abt Zelenskyy. We then stemmed words and created a word cloud sized by frequency. As you can see, there are some repeat stems we still need to clean up (e.g. president, Ukraine). 2/
Nov 17, 2022 β€’ 9 tweets β€’ 2 min read
πŸ’­ What words do our Russian respondents associate with the term "special military operation" (спСцопСрация)? We asked respondents to list the first 3 words that come to mind when thinking about the SMO. We then aggregated & stemmed words. Clouds are sized by stem frequency. 🧡1/ ImageImage We conducted this word association test from 10/30-11/07 w/ ~1800 respondents. We asked the sensitive word (SMO) alongside various other political & nonpolitical words. The 2 most common words by far were "war" & "Ukraine," which we removed from the clouds to show the others. 2/
Nov 2, 2022 β€’ 9 tweets β€’ 2 min read
We're seeing a decline in overall πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί public support for the 'special military operation' in πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦. We began to see downward trend in SMO support @ end of Aug. Now, our binary measure of SMO support is statistically significantly lower than it was @ end of Aug. Short 🧡 1/ On Aug 25, we estimated support for SMO @ ~74.5%. However, this excludes DK/NA responses, which typically make up ~13% of our sample. This means ~65% said they supported, ~22% said they didn't, and ~13% DK/NA. Then we started to see a slow, steady decline in support. 2/
Nov 1, 2022 β€’ 5 tweets β€’ 2 min read
*Where do Russians get their news about the 'special military operation'?* TV is by far the most popular source of info abt the SMO, w/ ~78% of respondents claiming they encounter info there daily or multiple times/day. Second is social media (~65% daily). 1/ 3rd is internet pubs (~60% daily), 4th is family & friends (~51% daily), 5th is radio (~40% daily), and last is traditional newspapers (~24% daily). 2/
Oct 31, 2022 β€’ 9 tweets β€’ 3 min read
*How closely do Russians say they're following the war?* A brief 🧡. The vast majority of our respondents claim to be following 'the situation in πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦' either very or rather closely. There was a drop in attention in August, which makes sense, as ppl tend to go on holiday then. 1/ Image In September, interest in 'the situation in πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦' picked back up, which may be related to the end of summer/ return to work and school. This is likely also related, at least in part, to the πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ counteroffensive, which began at the very end of August. 2/
Oct 12, 2022 β€’ 18 tweets β€’ 5 min read
Our research was recently featured in @MoscowTimes along with several other πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί public opinion projects. A few brief comments: 🧡 1/ Overall, our data suggest that a majority of Russians support Putin's "special military operation" in πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦. We put support at ~72-74%. This puts our estimate close to those of Levada and VTsIOM, but higher than a couple of the other projects mentioned in the article. 2/
Oct 11, 2022 β€’ 6 tweets β€’ 2 min read
*What is the level of support in πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί for different military strategies against πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦?* First, bombing major πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ cities. ~43% of respondents say they wld support this strategy. This figure has been rising since late Aug/early Sep, which coincides w/ start of πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ counteroffensive. 🧡 1/ In July and August, support for bombing cities was ~31-33%. There also seems to be an uptick over the past few days, after Russia launched missile strikes against cities across Ukraine. Note that these figures exclude "do not know" and "prefer not to answer" responses. 2/
Oct 10, 2022 β€’ 4 tweets β€’ 2 min read
Reupping this 🧡 in light of πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί's missile strikes on cities throughout πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦. As of 9/30 (the last day we asked the Q), ~23% of our respondents said πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί shld respond to the πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ counteroffensive by increasing rocket strikes on πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ cities. "Resume negotiations" was more popular. 1/ It would be interesting to see whether support for missile strikes has increased over the past few days. We are currently analyzing our data on another indicator that captures this. Stay tuned. 2/
Sep 30, 2022 β€’ 7 tweets β€’ 2 min read
*How worried are Russians abt the threat of a nuclear conflict btwn πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί & NATO?* TL;DR: general worry has risen since 9/21, when Putin declared "partial mobilization" and hinted @ nuclear retaliation in response to hypothetical threats against πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί territory. 1/ Before 9/21, ~77% of Russians said they were "very worried" or "generally worried" by the threat of a nuclear conflict. (Avg worry was ~70% if we code "don't know" and "prefer not to answer" responses as 0s and include them in denominator.) 2/
Sep 28, 2022 β€’ 8 tweets β€’ 3 min read
A 🧡 on partial mobilization in πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί. TL;DR - our respondents generally 1) think the effects of part. mob. will be felt equally thru/out πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί & 2) believe Russians w/ mil. experience will be called up first; & 3) seem uncertain abt whether gen. mob. will be declared soon. 1/ (1) We asked respondents to what extent they agreed w/ statement that the effects of partial mobilization will be felt equally in all regions of πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί. The share that agreed was ~78% (excluding DK/NA responses) or ~59% (including DK/NAs in denominator). 2/
Sep 27, 2022 β€’ 8 tweets β€’ 3 min read
* What do Russians think of sham 'referendums' in occupied πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦? * TL;DR: on avg, our respondents tend to: (a) think that the majority of residents in occupied πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ territories want to join πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί, and (b) support annexation of those territories. But levels of uncertainty are high. 🧡 1/ We asked to what extent πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί respondents agree that the majority of residents of so-called LNR, DNR, Kherson & Zaporizhzhia oblasts want to join πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί. If we exclude DK/NA responses, ~81% agreed; if we include these in denom., ~60% agreed. 2/
Sep 26, 2022 β€’ 5 tweets β€’ 1 min read
❗️Putin approval: since Sep 8, we’ve seen a downward trend in public approval of Vladimir Putin. On 8/1, we estimated Putin approval at ~80%. Putin approval stayed fairly constant during August. On 9/8, avg approval was ~79%; today (9/26) it’s at ~76%. 1/ Image A 3pp drop in support may not seem like much, but it occurred over the course of less than 3 weeks. This is the lowest estimate of Putin approval we’ve registered since we started our Russia Watcher survey on 5/19. 2/
Sep 23, 2022 β€’ 7 tweets β€’ 3 min read
🚨 New data: How are Russians reacting to Putin's declaration of "partial" mobilization in πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί? Support for "partial" mob. has been ~58-59% since 9/21, when the policy was announced (~47% if we include "don't know"s & NAs in denominator). But support is not consolidated. A🧡: 1/ On 9/21, Putin announced "partial" mobilization of military reservists. That same day, we began asking Russians whether they support Putin's decision. From 9/21-9/23 (today), average support has remained relatively consistent: ~58-59%. 2/
Sep 22, 2022 β€’ 7 tweets β€’ 2 min read
How many πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί soldiers do ordinary Russians think have died in πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦? We presented survey respondents w/ 6 different casualty "bands" to choose from. Plurality of respondents (27.7%) say 5-10k πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί troops have died, but 47% think it's >10k. 1/ While we have been asking this question regularly since mid-June, these averages are from the beginning of August to present. 2/
Sep 21, 2022 β€’ 7 tweets β€’ 2 min read
What Russians think about the counteroffensive--PART 3. TL;DR: avg belief that πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ mil. actions pose significant threat to πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί forces is on the rise again. Perhaps related to intro of "mobilization" to criminal code on 9/20, then Putin's declaration of "partial" mobilization? 1/ Image From 9/14-9/18, share of Russians who said πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ military actions in S&E pose significant threat to πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί forces has decreased from 60.1% to 51.6%. From 9/18-9/21 (today), % has increased to 56.5%. 2/
Sep 17, 2022 β€’ 5 tweets β€’ 2 min read
What is the relationship btwn support for the "special military operation" and television consumption in πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί? We found that on average, the more often Russians encounter info abt the SMO on TV, the higher their level of support for the "operation." 1/ This comes as no surprise, given the hawkish rhetoric and propaganda that is regularly broadcast on Russian TV channels--which are both highly popular sources of news and tightly controlled by the state. 2/
Sep 15, 2022 β€’ 5 tweets β€’ 2 min read
*Do Russians support general mobilization?* Since early June, we've regularly asked respondents to what extent they'd support a general mobilization in πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί to advance the "special military operation" in πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦. On avg, ~20% of Russians would support gen. mob., while ~80% oppose. 1/ Men and women tend to show similarly low levels of support for general mobilization: ~22% of women and ~19% of men either "fully support" or "generally support" the policy. 2/