1/ A couple of somewhat brief opinions/thoughts on the successful Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kharkiv Oblast.
2/ Hundreds of Russian vehicles were lost, most being abandoned. At least 200, more will be counted over the coming days. Based on others' work on analyzing Oryx's data with captured Russian documents, I generally assume the # we count on social media is 70% of the actual total.
3/ While there were no doubt Ukrainian losses, we would be seeing more if they were anywhere as significant as the Russian losses. Framing this as anything other than a significant victory, potentially altering the course of the war, would be a mistake.
4/ However, I do tend to be cautious, which I do to try to be realistic and to restrain my innate biases. Although Russian equipment losses were high, it is apparent to me that their personnel losses were likely as high as one may expect with the amount of equipment lost.
5/ At the moment, in the absence of additional information, I think the number of Russian casualties (KIA/WIA) in the counteroffensive, specifically in Kharkiv Oblast, was in the high hundreds, not thousands. For a prisoner estimate, I would also say several hundred for now.
6/ The main reason for this was the vehicles and equipment were mostly abandoned, possibly out of action prior to the counteroffensive due to maintenance issues. There was very little actual fighting, mostly consisting of Russian delaying actions.
7/ The Izium grouping of several thousand personnel, in particular, was largely able to escape unfortunately (without armored vehicles). There are some suggestions this was an agreement between the Ukrainians and Russians. I'm not sure one way or the other at the moment on this.
8/ I was going to write about if Ukraine will be fully able to continue exploitation into the Luhansk Oblast, but the situation is still very fluid, supply may be a concern as well. The resistance from Luhansk and BARS reservists at Lyman may have been an unexpected development.
9/ Also somewhat interesting that the Luhansk fighters and BARS reservists are putting up more resistance than "elite" formations like 1st GTA did, which doesn't really gel with prewar expectations. Crossing the Seversky Donets isn't easy, as the Russians found discovered /end
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