#MeetTheTeam SpaceX had entered the mobile phone race and I heard questions about whether they'd go recruit all of $ASTS's employees. First of all, if you are an ambitious engineer, do you want to work at a $125bn valuation company or a $2bn company? Starting point matters...
Quick aside, the other day I saw a sky blue Porsche Taycan Turbo S with the plates "MARSHIP" that had a SpaceX plate holder. To say SpaceX has been a place of wealth generation is an understatement. As well it should be. They should all be canonized for their achievement
But there is a reason that there has always been talent flow out of winners like Apple, Microsoft, Google, Facebook, Goldman Sachs, etc...talent wants to ring the bell for themselves if they were late comers. If they were early, they want to do it again. "LFG!"
So worriers wonder whether SpaceX is going to just poach all of $ASTS's talent.
Spoiler alert - at least according to the tools I have, there has been zero switching sides from the #SpaceMob to #OccupyMars.
Even if there had been, who cares. But there has been zero
Oh wait...what if the opposite is happening? What if (gasp), employees are LEAVING SPACEX TO GO TO $ASTS!!!
Turns out that some people at SpaceX have wanted to #MeetTheTeam. Is this a crisis for SpaceX?
No - Grow up.
But, it does show that talent sees opportunity to do something big at an exciting company.
I've blurred some details out for PII, but you'll get the point.
The recruits have tenure of 3-5 years at SpaceX - people with real experience. The recruits are electronic systems engineers, systems engineers, and an environmental test technicians (who apparently did her job well). All are senior hires - VP level, Principal Engineer
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Bezos finds a new way to get his rockets off. That and much more on this week's "Week in Review..."
🤠In this week's Review, you'll find the following topics
Highlights:
Earnings Call Summary:
Best earnings report to date.
Signed Multi-Launch Agreement (MLA) for 60 launches.
Successful initial operations of Block 1 satellites.
Key partnerships with AT&T, Verizon, and Rakuten confirmed.
Progress on government contracts, including significant EXIM financing application.
Updated CAPEX guidance indicates a path to cash flow positivity.
Strategic and Operational Updates:
$ASTS announced regulatory progress and plans for continuous constellation coverage by 2026 (ahead of market expectations).
Multi-launch strategy diversifies launch providers (SpaceX, Blue Origin, ISRO).
Detailed updates on individual launches, including upcoming ISRO and SpaceX flights and Blue Origin’s New Glenn potential.
A new schedule tracker highlights launch cadence.
Market and Investor Sentiment:
Stock faced short-term volatility, attributed to perceived manipulation post-MLA announcement.
Jim Cramer maintains a cautious stance, while community members argue the stock's upside potential.
Discussion on how the market underestimates $ASTS's long-term network monetization potential.
Military and Government Opportunities:
Growing government/military interest, including NATO discussions and SDA contracts.
Non-communication use cases (e.g., radar, GPS, phased arrays) offer additional growth areas.
Regulatory and Financial Progress:
FCC filings for AT&T and Verizon enable testing and spectrum allocation.
EXIM financing discussed as a key component of long-term low-cost capital structure.
Competitive Landscape:
Updates on SpaceX’s growing valuation and capacity, alongside Starlink challenges.
Industry dynamics highlighted by the collapse of rivals like Rivada.
Global Expansion:
Focus on India and the Middle East, with strategic moves like the ISRO launch providing market footholds.
💵$ASTS Reports Earnings
This was the best earnings report $ASTS has given. The key points are:
- MLA signed for 60 launches
- Successful initial operations of Block 1
- Initial FCC filings for AT&T and Verizon done
- 3 new government contracts
- EXIM application filed and expect more MNO money soon
- Remaining CAPEX for cash flow positivity is $120-170MM
- The SDA (military contract) is an example of something that can grow into huge deals
- Expect MNO deals soon (Rakuten already done)
But don't ask me, here is all the news that's fit to print:
Trump, Founder of the Space Force, is back...a tough week for the stock price, but many fundamental events are ahead for next week. Read on.
😶🌫️This week will cover the following:
ASTS Earnings Preview
I'll share my thoughts on what could happen on the Earnings Call on Thursday
ASTS Keeps Scaling
Expect updates on accelerated plans to launch commercial service soon.
Potential ASTS Acquisition
Speculation on Amazon or Google potentially acquiring $ASTS for telecom assets, similar to big tech’s entry into other markets.
Kamala Trade Impact
Market expects government support for SpaceX, but 70% of the U.S. market is tied to $ASTS.
$ASTS as DoD's Ace
Significant potential for ASTS in U.S. defense applications, backed by recent insights from a UT Austin Professor.
Defense Applications Expand
More details on ASTS’s defense applications from expert sources.
Ariane BB2 Launch
Anticipation of at least one launch with Ariane, according to sources.
Short Sellers on ASTS
Shorts are targeting ASTS, comparing it to Starlink, but investors remain bullish on $ASTS’s unique position.
Government Opportunities
ASTS is well-positioned for national security contracts, highlighted by a recent SDA award.
FCC Support & 5G Expansion
Commissioner Brendan Carr supports technology developments benefiting ASTS and the DoD.
Nokia 6G Summit
ASTS featured as a critical technology asset for defense applications at the summit.
Canadian Support
Canadian Space Agency backs ASTS, with Bell Canada also showing support.
New Zealand Partnership Misstep
Some concerns over a New Zealand telecom partnership that may not align with ASTS’s strategic goals.
Starlink's Misleading Claims
Allegations of Starlink overstating service accuracy, raising questions for private investors.
Bezos and Blue Origin
Bezos’s New Glenn rocket is nearing launch readiness, a significant milestone for Blue Origin.
Apple and Globalstar Partnership
Overview of Apple’s $1.5 billion satellite smartphone investment with Globalstar.
KOOKGPT Expansion
KOOKGPT is accepting blank term sheets for new AI company initiatives, with standard NVCA terms preferred.
💰 $ASTS Earnings Preview
This is the summary of what I expect could be covered on the earnings call, as well as separate events that could follow shortly thereafter
AST SpaceMobile is signaling exciting developments ahead! They’re “getting ready to operate and provide commercial services,” suggesting the start of significant milestones.
$ASTS gets included in an incredible US Military Project, becomes a Prime Contractor, and completes the unfurling of all 5 Block 1 satellites. Read on for more!
ASTS Block 1 Satellite Unfurling Ahead of Schedule:
AST SpaceMobile completed the unfurling of its five Block 1 satellites six weeks after launch, moving ahead of schedule. This rapid deployment primes the satellites for upcoming commercial and U.S. government operations, showcasing ASTS's commitment to timely and reliable performance.
Promotion to Prime Contractor in the HALO Project:
AST SpaceMobile advanced from subcontractor status to prime contractor with the U.S. Space Development Agency (SDA) under the HALO initiative. This pivotal promotion allows ASTS to manage contracts directly, highlighting its growing technical maturity and strengthened industry relationships.
HALO Demonstrations Begin with ASTS as Key Player:
ASTS is among 19 companies chosen for the SDA’s HALO project, aiming to enhance missile tracking and communication capabilities in low-Earth orbit. The initial orders involve the launch of two satellites within 12 to 18 months, with the possibility for larger contracts as the program expands.
FCC Compliance and Strategic Diplomacy: While regulatory hurdles are common in satellite communications, ASTS has maintained steady compliance with FCC requirements, contrasting with recent publicized disputes by SpaceX. ASTS’s smooth navigation of these processes underscores its meticulous approach to regulatory compliance.
FirstNet and New Spectrum Gains Support Future Expansion: AT&T’s FirstNet received additional spectrum, furthering ASTS’s potential reach for emergency and public safety communications. As the FirstNet network grows, ASTS is positioned to provide valuable satellite-based connectivity for first responders and emergency personnel.
Spotlight on Government Spending for Space Initiatives: The Pentagon's $14 billion Next-Gen OPIR program reveals a sustained emphasis on large-scale satellite procurement. ASTS’s modular satellite technology aligns well with such ambitious government initiatives, offering high-altitude solutions ideal for persistent surveillance and missile tracking.
READ THIS BEFORE ANYTHING ELSE. This was so well written by God's representative on earth, Ra himself.
2 more birds join the flock; AT&T shows the end game, and much, much more. This week's $ASTS Week In Review also includes an upfront summary
Unfurling Progress: With the recent milestone, three satellites are now operational, continuing to expand our coverage.
Bloomberg Interview Success: Scott delivered an impressive interview, highlighting our network's strategic focus. Key takeaways include: Over 45 MOU partnerships with 2.8 billion subscribers.
A vertically integrated model, enabling us to scale production to six satellites per month.
A clear message to shorts: we are differentiated, focusing on shareholder value.
Market Dynamics & Competitive Landscape: The narrative is shifting significantly in our favor. Our positioning has evolved from being seen as a "tiny player" to a formidable competitor in the market.
Government Engagement: Our solutions continue to resonate with government needs, particularly in the U.S., positioning us as a crucial partner for long-term strategic initiatives.
Talent Acquisition: We're pleased to welcome Luiz Abud to the team. With his expertise and insights, particularly from his time at Nokia, we expect to accelerate the commercialization of our technology.
Investor Confidence: Institutional interest is growing, as evidenced by BlackRock's increased stake in our Series A stock. This shift towards long-term holders underscores the market's belief in our growth trajectory.
Key Partnerships & Market Moves: The recent Verizon spectrum deal has strategic implications, especially as it positions us alongside leading telecom players in shaping the future of satellite-based communication.
Expanding Opportunities in Mexico: Our collaboration with regional partners is well-timed as the country navigates regulatory challenges. ASTS offers a promising solution for 5G expansion, making it a valuable partner for regional telecom giants.
The storm has passed, literally and metaphorically
Solar storm messing with drag is over and the Starlink STA is more obviously a nothing burger.
ASTS MET WITH FCC COMMISSIONER: ASTS confirmed it will meet all the rules (unlike someone else). ASTS is once again talking about the 5G Fund and it's eligibility.