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AT&TheKOOKReport Profile picture
@thekookreport
Sep 14, 2022 • 7 tweets • 4 min read • Read on X
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#MeetTheTeam SpaceX had entered the mobile phone race and I heard questions about whether they'd go recruit all of $ASTS's employees. First of all, if you are an ambitious engineer, do you want to work at a $125bn valuation company or a $2bn company? Starting point matters... Image
Quick aside, the other day I saw a sky blue Porsche Taycan Turbo S with the plates "MARSHIP" that had a SpaceX plate holder. To say SpaceX has been a place of wealth generation is an understatement. As well it should be. They should all be canonized for their achievement Image
But there is a reason that there has always been talent flow out of winners like Apple, Microsoft, Google, Facebook, Goldman Sachs, etc...talent wants to ring the bell for themselves if they were late comers. If they were early, they want to do it again. "LFG!" Image
So worriers wonder whether SpaceX is going to just poach all of $ASTS's talent.

Spoiler alert - at least according to the tools I have, there has been zero switching sides from the #SpaceMob to #OccupyMars.

Even if there had been, who cares. But there has been zero Image
Oh wait...what if the opposite is happening? What if (gasp), employees are LEAVING SPACEX TO GO TO $ASTS!!!

#MarsIsTooDry Image
Turns out that some people at SpaceX have wanted to #MeetTheTeam. Is this a crisis for SpaceX?

No - Grow up.

But, it does show that talent sees opportunity to do something big at an exciting company.

I've blurred some details out for PII, but you'll get the point. Image
The recruits have tenure of 3-5 years at SpaceX - people with real experience. The recruits are electronic systems engineers, systems engineers, and an environmental test technicians (who apparently did her job well). All are senior hires - VP level, Principal Engineer Image

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More from @thekookreport

AT&TheKOOKReport Profile picture
Dec 28, 2024
🚨🚨 $ASTS WEEK IN REVIEW🚨🚨

Blue Origin hot fires successfully (despite earlier market rumors), some year in reviews, STA updates, and much more... Image
AST SpaceMobile’s Transformational Year:
ASTS has undergone a significant evolution over the past year, transforming from a company grappling with technical and financial uncertainty to one with strong partnerships (Google, Verizon, AT&T), validated FCC approvals, government deals, and an emerging satellite technology platform. Block 1 deployment has shown real progress, and ASTS is now positioned as a potential leader in the direct-to-device satellite market. Challenges remain in scaling, securing additional funding, and achieving full regulatory approval.

Competitive Landscape: ASTS vs. Starlink:
Expert interviews highlight AST SpaceMobile’s unique approach with high-capacity satellites and large antennas, enabling superior speeds (20–100 Mbps). In contrast, Starlink leverages its rapid satellite deployment and spectrum agreements with T-Mobile to offer near-term services but with limited capacity and slower speeds (1–2 Mbps). Both companies face regulatory, technical, and financial hurdles as they race to capture growing demand in satellite-based IoT and connectivity markets.

Market Dynamics and Catalysts:
Key upcoming catalysts include potential BAML analyst coverage, further FCC spectrum decisions, and advancements in ASTS’s satellite deployments. Spectrum reuse and beamforming technologies remain critical to ASTS’s ability to scale and compete effectively. Meanwhile, broader telco market changes, like Verizon selling 6,300 towers and AT&T phasing out copper networks, underscore the push toward capital-efficient infrastructure and advanced wireless technologies.

Regulatory and Legal Developments:
Viasat has filed complaints against Starlink’s spectrum use, emphasizing interference and procedural concerns. This adds complexity to the regulatory landscape as ASTS and others vie for approval. ASTS’s ability to navigate these challenges will be pivotal for its success.

Investor Sentiment and Financial Developments:
Tax-loss selling and prior high trading volumes at levels above $25 suggest a reset in investor expectations, creating opportunities for a fresh start in 2025. ASTS’s recent shareholder decisions and redemptions also provide clarity on its financial position going into the new year.
Industry Highlights:

Telco Evolution: AT&T’s $6B annual maintenance cost for copper networks highlights the operational burdens of legacy infrastructure. Phasing out copper could unlock billions in recoverable resources.
Blue Origin and SpaceX Updates: Excitement continues in the space industry, with milestones such as static fire tests for upcoming launches.

IoT Potential: The adoption of 5G spectrum for satellite communication opens new avenues for integrating satellite connectivity into cars, industrial sensors, and more.
🎇ASTS Had a Year

A year ago we didn’t have Google and Verizon. AT&T wasn't an investor. We had no DA's. We had delayed Block 1 with real prospects the satellites were FUBAR'd (who knew). We had no FCC rules. We had no government deals. We weren't a prime contractor. We weren't selected by the Space Development Authority. We had no cash. We had no launch capacity confirmed beyond Block 1. Our ASIC was a question mark. Scott wasn't President.

x.com/AST_SpaceMobil…
Read 20 tweets
AT&TheKOOKReport Profile picture
Dec 21, 2024
🚨🚨 $ASTS WEEK IN REVIEW🚨🚨

Christmas is coming. Many updates and tidbits that advance our knowledge of AST Spacemobile...read on, friends Image
🚀 $ASTS WEEK IN REVIEW 🚀

Video Calls Now Possible:Beta services launching in early 2025 with FCC support. Each satellite delivers 1M GB usable capacity, covering vast regions.
50 MOUs secured for global partnerships.

Saturno Project Partnership:Collaboration with Vodafone and Spain for satellite-driven connectivity.
Focus on bridging the digital divide and innovating space technology.

5G Fund Progress: FCC rules effective Jan 2025 to fund ASTS's rural deployment. $50M annual funding likely for infrastructure expansion.

Global Opportunity: $ASTS emerging as the mobile-first leader, contrasting with Starlink's fixed solutions.
Partnerships with telecom giants like Vodafone ensure strong growth potential.

Industry Disruption: Competitors face challenges in compatibility and public perception. AST SpaceMobile poised for rapid adoption in underserved regions.
🎙️Scott Gives a Banger

- Already doing video calls
- One satellite can cover half the US
- 30% of MNO customers will pay more for this service
- Each satellite can do 1mm GB of usable capacity (excludes flyovers at 2am, for example because that’s deemed not usable)
- Not a limited or emergency service, it will be mainstream
- Very close to beta service
- FCC is very supportive
- Very dense airwaves and only ASTS can protect it
- Expect approval very soon
- Several thousand beta users early 2025
- 50 MOUs
- Behind MNOs, a desire to pull infrastructure out.
They want to outsource and have carrier neutral partners
“TMFBuilttoLast” asked a question about SpaceX. Lol. Timmay asked a question via a message board

podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/mot…

x.com/spacanpanman/s…
Read 42 tweets
AT&TheKOOKReport Profile picture
Dec 14, 2024
🚨🚨 $ASTS WEEK IN REVIEW🚨🚨

Vodafone DA, stock market frustration, and much more in the Weekly Image
🚀 $ASTS WEEK IN REVIEW 🚀

🌐 Vodafone Deal:
10-yr agreement, >20 Mbps speeds, covers 60+ markets. France locked w/ #1 (Orange) & #2 (Altice). A game-changer for MNO partnerships!

📡 Global Expansion:
Gateways going live globally. Big 2025 marketing push incoming. 🌍

💸 Revenue Potential:
DB sees $4.5B by 2030 (50/50 split). Long-term deals boosting EXIM financing. 📈

📶 Tech Edge:
Spectral efficiency now 4 bps/Hz. Adaptive modulation = reliable satellite-to-phone connections.

🛡️ Military & Regulatory Wins:
DoD & Navy partnerships in play. FCC fast-tracking permits. 🛰️

📈 TAM Growth:
Beyond mobile – laptops, AR/VR devices, & more. ASTS redefines connectivity!

🔥 Competitive Advantage:
Starlink? Meet your match. ASTS's commercial moat keeps growing.

🎥 Narrative Power:
Documentaries & killer visuals drive the $ASTS story forward.

#ASTS #SpaceMobile #SatelliteBroadband
🌐Vodafone DA

- 10 Year Agreement Covers Vodafone Home Markets as well as other markets via its Partner Markets Program
- Vodafone operates in more than 20 markets and has partnerships that cover another 40 markets
- Confirmed speeds of greater than 20 Mbps on 5 Mhz of spectrum
- The service: These gateways will then connect to Vodafone's existing network infrastructure to route the broadband data to users' devices, as well as to access third-party Apps and the Internet

businesswire.com/news/home/2024…Image
Read 48 tweets
AT&TheKOOKReport Profile picture
Dec 7, 2024
🚨🚨 $ASTS WEEK IN REVIEW🚨🚨

$ASTS gets industry recognition as well as a lot of attention at AT&T's analyst day, as much more... Image
🍰Summary

Achievements and Industry Position:
Recognition: $ASTS was named the "2024 Emerging Space Company of the Year."

Industry Alignment: Positioned at a critical intersection of technology and connectivity trends, such as satellite communication.
Trading Sentiment:

Market Dynamics: Noted trading patterns where $ASTS is seen as a pair trade against Starlink news, with investors reacting to perceived competition.

Zoomed-Out Perspective: Investors are encouraged to focus on the long-term structural advantages and milestones of $ASTS.
Competitive Insights:

Starlink Comparisons: Differences highlighted between $ASTS's higher speeds and capacity versus Starlink's shared-beam model.

Investor Challenges: Difficulty for institutions to invest in $ASTS due to pre-revenue status and competition with Elon Musk's ventures.

Satellite Operations: Updates on AST5000 ASIC development for enhanced performance in space environments.

Regulatory Milestones: Progress in FCC approvals, including spectrum leasing arrangements and compliance.
Partnerships:

AT&T Collaboration: AT&T's strategy emphasizes $ASTS's role in augmenting terrestrial services. AT&T and Verizon's spectrum contributions bolster $ASTS's offering.

Catalysts and Future Outlook:
Upcoming Catalysts: Regulatory approvals, new launches (e.g., Bluebird 2), government contracts, and initial operations/revenue.

Long-Term Vision: Potential for significant revenue growth and impact on mobile network operators' subscriber value.

Geopolitical and Global Context:
International Developments: Regulatory challenges in Namibia for Starlink, opportunities in Europe, and competitive positioning in the Indian market.

MNO Partnerships: The strategic choice to collaborate with mobile network operators ensures smoother market entry and broader adoption.
Investment Insights:

Valuation Potential: The potential for exponential growth if milestones are achieved, highlighting parallels with historical tech successes.

Market Awareness: Awareness and investment traction are still in the early stages, with significant room for growth.
🏆2024 Emerging Space Company of the Year

Well-earned recognition for $ASTS after a pivotal year of execution

Read 49 tweets
AT&TheKOOKReport Profile picture
Dec 1, 2024
🚨🚨 $ASTS WEEK IN REVIEW🚨🚨

$ASTS is set to receive FCC approval, Starlink gets to pursue its defective system, FUD Busting, and much more on this week's Weekly Image
Week in Review Highlights:
Global Expansion and Partnerships: Permits filed in Turkey with Vodafone. Notable collaborations with AT&T, including mentions of their strategic investments and upcoming Analyst Day.

Competitive Landscape: Critical analysis of Starlink's limitations, regulatory challenges, and service model, highlighting $ASTS's edge in technology and market positioning.

Market Opportunities: Emphasis on the scalability and economic potential of commercial space applications, with $ASTS poised to revolutionize telecommunications, especially in underserved areas.

Investment Case for $ASTS: Focus on its superwholesale model, strategic partnerships, and visionary leadership driving innovation.
Financial health underlined by significant cash reserves and successful satellite launches.

Key Takeaways from DB Conference: Observations on industry lethargy versus $ASTS's dynamic approach, with leadership seen as focused and mission-driven.
Analysis of historical failures in satellite
communications and how $ASTS is breaking that mold.

Regulatory and Competitive Insights: Updates on FCC approvals, spectrum battles, and the impact of lower orbital altitudes on satellite longevity and efficiency.
Starlink's challenges with interference and its perceived struggles to compete with $ASTS.

Technological Innovation: Discussion on space-based power generation and other potential non-communication applications for $ASTS's technology.

Market Trends and Sentiment: Shift in generalist investor sentiment towards space stocks, with $ASTS emerging as a long-term growth story.
Analysis of adjacent industries and their role in $ASTS's success, including military and government programs.

Broader Space Economy: Highlights on the growing valuation of space companies like SpaceX and the potential for market disruption in the telecommunications sector.
🇹🇷Testing Permits Continue

$ASTS permits with Vodafone are filed in Turkey. We're going global.

Read 61 tweets
AT&TheKOOKReport Profile picture
Nov 24, 2024
🚨🚨 $ASTS WEEK IN REVIEW🚨🚨

The wet dream of shorts is about to turn into a nightmare for them. I will also try to do a Spaces to cover these topics tomorrow and will schedule it when I know my schedule. Image
🤘Key Highlights:

Sources and Uses of Funds: Analysis suggests the company may be pursuing less dilutive financing strategies, signaling long-term confidence.
Government funding, MNO prepayments, and EXIM support remain key potential catalysts.

Growing Interest: $ASTS presentations are drawing larger crowds, with institutional investors starting to take notice.

Market Sizing: The satellite market potential, especially in D2D communications, is vast, with both consumer and military applications on the horizon.

Short Seller Debunking: Recent short theses are critiqued, highlighting gaps in their assumptions and reinforcing the long-term investment thesis for $ASTS.

Technical Developments: Continued testing of BW-3 and updates on beam size efficiencies showcase $ASTS's technological edge.

Leadership Moves: CEO Abel Avellan's estate planning transaction signals confidence in $ASTS's future while aligning shareholder interests.

Policy & Regulation: Changes at the FCC, including new leadership, are likely to shape the regulatory landscape favorably for satellite communications.
ℹ️Sources & Uses

Let's start with a review of what matters a lot for a stock like $ASTS - it's balance sheet.

What's interesting is that since earnings, the Company has not used the ATM. There are two paths I'd take if I were CFO (and I'm not out of my league to say I could be a CFO).

Path 1: Hit the ATM. Once you start using it, just get the whole thing done and be over with it. They obviously did not choose Path 1. Why?

Path 2: Do what you need to secure yourself and not gamble, but realize you have something else in store to minimize dilution. MNO pre-payments, EXIM, 5G Funds.

I thought Path 1 was the prudent path. It appears that a prudent company has chosen Path 2. The fact that Abel did his personal liquidity transaction after potentially suggests that ATM is done for the time being.
Read 46 tweets

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