Grateful to be an American. Focused on my $ASTS investment for the foreseeable future. Treating it like a private investment, so realize my perspective.
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Nov 18 • 52 tweets • 25 min read
🚨🚨 $ASTS WEEK IN REVIEW🚨🚨
Bezos finds a new way to get his rockets off. That and much more on this week's "Week in Review..."
🤠In this week's Review, you'll find the following topics
Highlights:
Earnings Call Summary:
Best earnings report to date.
Signed Multi-Launch Agreement (MLA) for 60 launches.
Successful initial operations of Block 1 satellites.
Key partnerships with AT&T, Verizon, and Rakuten confirmed.
Progress on government contracts, including significant EXIM financing application.
Updated CAPEX guidance indicates a path to cash flow positivity.
Strategic and Operational Updates:
$ASTS announced regulatory progress and plans for continuous constellation coverage by 2026 (ahead of market expectations).
Multi-launch strategy diversifies launch providers (SpaceX, Blue Origin, ISRO).
Detailed updates on individual launches, including upcoming ISRO and SpaceX flights and Blue Origin’s New Glenn potential.
A new schedule tracker highlights launch cadence.
Market and Investor Sentiment:
Stock faced short-term volatility, attributed to perceived manipulation post-MLA announcement.
Jim Cramer maintains a cautious stance, while community members argue the stock's upside potential.
Discussion on how the market underestimates $ASTS's long-term network monetization potential.
Military and Government Opportunities:
Growing government/military interest, including NATO discussions and SDA contracts.
Non-communication use cases (e.g., radar, GPS, phased arrays) offer additional growth areas.
Regulatory and Financial Progress:
FCC filings for AT&T and Verizon enable testing and spectrum allocation.
EXIM financing discussed as a key component of long-term low-cost capital structure.
Competitive Landscape:
Updates on SpaceX’s growing valuation and capacity, alongside Starlink challenges.
Industry dynamics highlighted by the collapse of rivals like Rivada.
Global Expansion:
Focus on India and the Middle East, with strategic moves like the ISRO launch providing market footholds.
Nov 10 • 29 tweets • 12 min read
🚨🚨 $ASTS WEEK IN REVIEW🚨🚨
Trump, Founder of the Space Force, is back...a tough week for the stock price, but many fundamental events are ahead for next week. Read on.
😶🌫️This week will cover the following:
ASTS Earnings Preview
I'll share my thoughts on what could happen on the Earnings Call on Thursday
ASTS Keeps Scaling
Expect updates on accelerated plans to launch commercial service soon.
Potential ASTS Acquisition
Speculation on Amazon or Google potentially acquiring $ASTS for telecom assets, similar to big tech’s entry into other markets.
Kamala Trade Impact
Market expects government support for SpaceX, but 70% of the U.S. market is tied to $ASTS.
$ASTS as DoD's Ace
Significant potential for ASTS in U.S. defense applications, backed by recent insights from a UT Austin Professor.
Defense Applications Expand
More details on ASTS’s defense applications from expert sources.
Ariane BB2 Launch
Anticipation of at least one launch with Ariane, according to sources.
Short Sellers on ASTS
Shorts are targeting ASTS, comparing it to Starlink, but investors remain bullish on $ASTS’s unique position.
Government Opportunities
ASTS is well-positioned for national security contracts, highlighted by a recent SDA award.
FCC Support & 5G Expansion
Commissioner Brendan Carr supports technology developments benefiting ASTS and the DoD.
Nokia 6G Summit
ASTS featured as a critical technology asset for defense applications at the summit.
Canadian Support
Canadian Space Agency backs ASTS, with Bell Canada also showing support.
New Zealand Partnership Misstep
Some concerns over a New Zealand telecom partnership that may not align with ASTS’s strategic goals.
Starlink's Misleading Claims
Allegations of Starlink overstating service accuracy, raising questions for private investors.
Bezos and Blue Origin
Bezos’s New Glenn rocket is nearing launch readiness, a significant milestone for Blue Origin.
Apple and Globalstar Partnership
Overview of Apple’s $1.5 billion satellite smartphone investment with Globalstar.
KOOKGPT Expansion
KOOKGPT is accepting blank term sheets for new AI company initiatives, with standard NVCA terms preferred.
Nov 3 • 19 tweets • 7 min read
🚨🚨 $ASTS WEEK IN REVIEW🚨🚨
Good things are coming, read for more.
📢 ASTS Milestone Announcement
AST SpaceMobile is signaling exciting developments ahead! They’re “getting ready to operate and provide commercial services,” suggesting the start of significant milestones.
$ASTS gets included in an incredible US Military Project, becomes a Prime Contractor, and completes the unfurling of all 5 Block 1 satellites. Read on for more!
ASTS Block 1 Satellite Unfurling Ahead of Schedule:
AST SpaceMobile completed the unfurling of its five Block 1 satellites six weeks after launch, moving ahead of schedule. This rapid deployment primes the satellites for upcoming commercial and U.S. government operations, showcasing ASTS's commitment to timely and reliable performance.
Promotion to Prime Contractor in the HALO Project:
AST SpaceMobile advanced from subcontractor status to prime contractor with the U.S. Space Development Agency (SDA) under the HALO initiative. This pivotal promotion allows ASTS to manage contracts directly, highlighting its growing technical maturity and strengthened industry relationships.
HALO Demonstrations Begin with ASTS as Key Player:
ASTS is among 19 companies chosen for the SDA’s HALO project, aiming to enhance missile tracking and communication capabilities in low-Earth orbit. The initial orders involve the launch of two satellites within 12 to 18 months, with the possibility for larger contracts as the program expands.
FCC Compliance and Strategic Diplomacy: While regulatory hurdles are common in satellite communications, ASTS has maintained steady compliance with FCC requirements, contrasting with recent publicized disputes by SpaceX. ASTS’s smooth navigation of these processes underscores its meticulous approach to regulatory compliance.
FirstNet and New Spectrum Gains Support Future Expansion: AT&T’s FirstNet received additional spectrum, furthering ASTS’s potential reach for emergency and public safety communications. As the FirstNet network grows, ASTS is positioned to provide valuable satellite-based connectivity for first responders and emergency personnel.
Spotlight on Government Spending for Space Initiatives: The Pentagon's $14 billion Next-Gen OPIR program reveals a sustained emphasis on large-scale satellite procurement. ASTS’s modular satellite technology aligns well with such ambitious government initiatives, offering high-altitude solutions ideal for persistent surveillance and missile tracking.
Oct 19 • 45 tweets • 18 min read
🚨🚨 $ASTS WEEK IN REVIEW🚨🚨
2 more birds join the flock; AT&T shows the end game, and much, much more. This week's $ASTS Week In Review also includes an upfront summary
Unfurling Progress: With the recent milestone, three satellites are now operational, continuing to expand our coverage.
Bloomberg Interview Success: Scott delivered an impressive interview, highlighting our network's strategic focus. Key takeaways include: Over 45 MOU partnerships with 2.8 billion subscribers.
A vertically integrated model, enabling us to scale production to six satellites per month.
A clear message to shorts: we are differentiated, focusing on shareholder value.
Market Dynamics & Competitive Landscape: The narrative is shifting significantly in our favor. Our positioning has evolved from being seen as a "tiny player" to a formidable competitor in the market.
Government Engagement: Our solutions continue to resonate with government needs, particularly in the U.S., positioning us as a crucial partner for long-term strategic initiatives.
Talent Acquisition: We're pleased to welcome Luiz Abud to the team. With his expertise and insights, particularly from his time at Nokia, we expect to accelerate the commercialization of our technology.
Investor Confidence: Institutional interest is growing, as evidenced by BlackRock's increased stake in our Series A stock. This shift towards long-term holders underscores the market's belief in our growth trajectory.
Key Partnerships & Market Moves: The recent Verizon spectrum deal has strategic implications, especially as it positions us alongside leading telecom players in shaping the future of satellite-based communication.
Expanding Opportunities in Mexico: Our collaboration with regional partners is well-timed as the country navigates regulatory challenges. ASTS offers a promising solution for 5G expansion, making it a valuable partner for regional telecom giants.
Oct 13 • 21 tweets • 11 min read
🚨🚨 $ASTS WEEK IN REVIEW🚨🚨
The storm has passed, literally and metaphorically
Solar storm messing with drag is over and the Starlink STA is more obviously a nothing burger.
ASTS MET WITH FCC COMMISSIONER: ASTS confirmed it will meet all the rules (unlike someone else). ASTS is once again talking about the 5G Fund and it's eligibility.
A BIRD SPREAD ITS WINGS: The first Block 1 bird unfurls AHEAD of schedule
TIME TO EXECUTION. As Tut points out, 70 days from factory floor to unfurling. Execution is what will drive the stock price to big boy market caps ($100bn+).
Massive cash influx from warrant redemption and huge collision of retail investors who did not know how to exercise them
THE INTERVIEW: Chris and Abel. Goddamn. This was Chris' first rocket launch. Chris loved the #Spacemob energy. F- yeah. We're here. Chris got his platoon back, but this time we're more diehard than what he was used to with the SEALS. Did SEAL training involve holding a stock down 90%? I think not.
Chris goes directly to $ASTS replacing terrestrial CAPEX. This is about avoidance of future CAPEX, which will have incredible ROI. This is the ScotiaBank thesis and frankly, more powerful than our original thesis. "Abel is one of the great inventors of our time." Chris had same reaction when Abel launched a phone into space for Bluewalker-1. When I learned that I sat back and thought, "this guy thinks differently." I wasn't alone.
Abel said something I love, "We're a very proud American company." Giddy up.
Sep 22 • 37 tweets • 11 min read
🚨🚨$ASTS WEEK IN REVIEW🚨🚨
The birds are flying!
ASTS BLOG POST: ASTS is starting a robust communication strategy. You can feel the machine starting to spin up
A week we will all remember
OUR FRIEND STEVE: This is one of the most beautiful and touching things I've seen. Steve will get to see the success of $ASTS with a front row seat to future launches and wearing his Block 1 pin.
It was another busy week. Here is your weekend update on all things $ASTS before our launch on Thursday.
LAUNCH: As anticipated, $ASTS announced a launch date for Block 1. The Company made sure it was adult-only by making it at 5am launch so that children will pass out in the bus. We are all very excited to watch this incredible event. It will be webcast so make sure to tune in. Incredible shout out to the $ASTS IR team that is allowing investors to come. feeds.issuerdirect.com/news-release.h…
Sep 2 • 20 tweets • 8 min read
🚨🚨$ASTS WEEK IN REVIEW🚨🚨
Were you out last week? Want to catch up on $ASTS news so that you can hit the ground running in September?
Welcome to the $ASTS Weekend Update with as much relevant content from the prior week in one easy-to-use thread
WARRANT REDEMPTION. The big financing news was the redemption of the $ASTS warrants. This will give $ASTS >$150MM of fresh capital to help accelerate Block 2 businesswire.com/news/home/2024…
Aug 26 • 15 tweets • 9 min read
🚨A new instalment of #hardcoredd for $ASTS 🚨 Here I summarize the recent FCC filings relating to SpaceX and Starlink to help us understand the problem they have.
This could be one of the all-time unexpected upside surprises for a duopoly: SpaceX was a large overhang for investors and then physics entered the room leaving $ASTS as the only approved player
Here is background on Starlink's D2C program. The key points are they utilize a thin slice of high-band PCS spectrum, which matters in terms of guard band availability, system throughput, and propagation. Starlink repurposed Swarm for the effort, which is key: it was never built for purpose
Aug 2 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
Reading the FCC Approval for $ASTS Block 1 and updating the DD. First let's remember the over arching FCC decision structure:
docs.fcc.gov/public/attachm…
FCC first just says, "yup, people gonna love this shit." So yeah, being able to use your phone in an emergency is in the public interest
Apr 11 • 16 tweets • 3 min read
"Why I believe $GOOG will buy $ASTS, and how this will happen."
By Kook Report
Big Tech has an M&A problem. They want to do it, but cannot do horizontal mergers anymore. They can do vertical integration or new businesses
1/ Our next segment of #hardcoreDD for $ASTS focuses on the technology. Please DM me with any corrections, suggestions, or areas for me to modify in the next draft (modifying other sections with feedback received) 2/ Here is the simple overview with a schematic from an $ASTS patent filing
Apr 5, 2023 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
Sorry for the delay, but in response to popular demand, here is the B. Riley note on $ASTS
It's interesting that the analyst echoes the chorus from retail...maybe retail wasn't so unreasonable in their Philadelphia welcome of the Company's update
In what is literally what the halls of Twitter was saying, B. Riley states the obvious:
Apr 2, 2023 • 21 tweets • 8 min read
1/ So you let the stock price write the news? Here is my summary of the $ASTS call and filings.
Since retail can be a bit in need of TLDR: Onlyfans creators are just going to have to wait before uploading at 5G. Downloading, though...blazing fast 2/ The 10K says simply that they are “continuing” the initial testing to achieve Cellular Broadband communications. This implies they have not yet achieved Cellular Broadband communications; “Cellular Broadband” refers to cellular communications at 4G LTE/5G speeds. 3G anyone?
Mar 5, 2023 • 18 tweets • 7 min read
1/ For new members of the $ASTS #Spacemob, I realize there can be a lot of noise on the internet. But, based on Friday's "news," it seems like we might have a seminal event shortly...albeit the first of what will be many accretive weddings with most of the world's MNOs 2/ While I had expected the next "event" to be a 'First Call' - which was pretty clearly disclosed in FCC filings (I'll keep the surprise so it maintains its full impact!), we might have an accelerated path to an unlock in the share price
Mar 2, 2023 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
Here is a review of the new $ASTS investor presentation, which can be found here:
ast-science.com/wp-content/upl…
First thing is this point, which is coincidence with the roadshow guidance from the December capital raise. FUNDED for production AND launch of Block 1. This means funded until first revenue, whereupon they should have break-even cash flow
Dec 1, 2022 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
Here is the $ASTS update from B. Riley. Some important points
Remember that during the roadshow, management would have been giving presentations on a 1:1 basis and also setting the stage for revised messaging. B. Riley would be parroting that. So we read carefully. First tech risk: viewed as now basically gone