Share this page!

Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Twitter logo
Sep 14 • 12 tweets • 4 min read
Excellent, we are starting to get the Ukrainian analysis of the Kharkiv operation (actually linked Kherson-Kharkiv operations), and its important to pay alot of attention. The Ukrainian position has been often overlooked in western reporting (to its great detriment).
Unlike western reports over the summer, for instance, the Ukrainians had a much better understanding of how the fighting was progressing, why the war was still trending in Ukraine's direction, and they were not deceived by the Russian Army's unthinking ability to blow stuff up.
First we have this detailed report by @IAPonomarenko (the most important military reporter of this war). kyivindependent.com/national/with-…
He starts by linking Kherson and Kharkiv, showing how the Russians had deployed 25 BTGs to Kherson (including some of their best troops). Brought Russian troops to a more vulnerable area (Kherson) thinned the line elsewhere.
The Kharkiv attack is then described in some detail (please read the whole article and donate to @KyivIndependent ) Basically using fast, light vehicles, the Ukrainians got behind a weak Russian line and caused a Russian collapse to the Opskil River.
The other important report comes from @MBielieskov . As Ive said before, please give him a follow if you are interested in the Ukrainian understanding of the war. He has been far more accurate than most western analysts and combines strategic studies with some military history.
His report is more focussed on an analysis of the actual Ukrainian advance in Kharkiv, and he is already drawing some very interesting conclusions (again please read the whole thing).
Here are some of his lessons--again it was about Ukrainian speed and the fact that Russian defenses had been thinned out.
It was all about Ukrainian swiftness in cutting Russian lines of communication (logistics) even though the Ukrainians actually lacked a great deal of armor.
Its early days for analysis, obviously, but already Ukrainian understanding of their own war is proving excellent, learned and worthy of note. We should be paying more attention to it.
Putting this important tweet here as it shows the link between this summer's fighting and now, and also between what Ukraine is doing in Kherson (attrition) and what it is doing in Kharkiv (maneuver warfare).
Some more interesting Ukrainian based analysis of the importance of what just happened in Kharkiv.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with Phillips P. OBrien

Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @PhillipsPOBrien

Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Sep 13
A number of really important points being made here. In 2021 much was made about how Russian maneuvers in Zapad 2021 were a confirmation of the improvement in their capabilities. Yet, we can see now, they were able to do very little in the real world that they claimed...
to do in the manuevers. It was a general analytical failing in the estimate given by many, taking Russian claims too much at face value. Military maneuvers are often deeply deceptive. Mussolini regularly used them to make it seem his army was more capable.
In the case of Russia-Ukraine, its worth noting that it was the Ukrainians who have been able to pull off the greater combined arms operations, though the concentration before the war was almost all on the Russians.
Read 4 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Sep 12
This is a rather extraordinary claim that is being made today by the Ukrainians and some western intelligence--that Russia, in the midst of the Kharkiv collapse, has ceased sending reinforcements to its struggling army in Ukraine.
The @GeneralStaffUA update this evening provides some details. Basically they cant convince the troops to go (longer paragraph in center). A combination of soldiers hearing about all the deaths, the terrible treatment of wounded, etc
Ukraine will want to take advantage of this, because if it continues there should be other failures on the Russian line. Hard to see how they rebuild the new line in Kharkiv along the Oskil River, for instance, with the rag-tag group left over from the past 10 days.
Read 5 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Sep 11
Sunday Update. The Line finally moved and it was meaningful. The Ukrainian victory that was many months in the making.
Did you hear there was a little breakthrough and exploitation in Kharkiv Oblast by the Ukrainians during the past week?
As Im sure youve seen, the Ukrainians have liberated more territory in a few days than Russia had seized since April 19 (start of the Battle of the Donbas. It seemed sudden and stunning, but it wasnt. It was the result of patient and methodical Ukrainian strategy and planning.
Read 20 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Sep 11
All these stories of Russian retreat and panicked evacuation will make things far worse for the Russia army. How will it draw a new line of resistance with too few troops and a crazy misshapen area to try and hold. The line was already too long, and now might be longer.
Right now one of the biggest problems tne Ukrainians are going to have is dealing with their own logistics As their forces have to try and cover an increasingly wide area that the Russians are abandoning. It won’t be easy to keep track of everything
Though one advantage the Ukrainians will have is that once the Russians leave, the local population should be able to seize control of governmental infrastructure by themselves.
Read 4 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Sep 10
This argument is going to run and run and we won’t settle it here, but such small number of tanks used by the Ukrainians against a weak Russian force does not make a convincing case that the tank is a high priority system. More the opposite imho. Russians had more tanks it seems
Quick question. Are there any videos of Ukrainian tanks actually taking part in these fast advances of the last few days. Ive heard of 15 tanks in the story above. All the videos Ive seen are of light vehicles and APCs. Are there pictures or stories of...
Ukr tanks being particularly decisive. Otoh, Ive numerous pictures of destroyed or abandoned Russian tanks. Might it be that one of the reasons the Ukrainians have moved so quickly is that they are only using small numbers of tanks?
Read 8 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Sep 10
I can think of only a very few non Ukrainian pundits who did not grossly underestimate Ukraine before Feb 24 (after Feb 24 It didn’t take any understanding to see who understood the reality). There was @MarkHertling , @general_ben . Who else?
And yes, I don’t consider myself a pundit, but suppose then I go on that list. I nailed my colors to the mast in a January when I said the Russian military was grossly overrated and the Ukrainians would fight very effectively for their freedom. thecritic.co.uk/the-new-appeas…
Adding more here.
Read 8 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(