Thread by @shashj

🧵Western official: "Ukraine has broken through on the Kharkiv sector It's too early to say whether this is a turning point in the war, but it's a moment which has power in terms of both operations, logistics and psychology... Ukraine has demonstrated impressive operational art."

Western official: "Russian forces are likely in the process of withdrawing from the whole of the occupied northern Kharkiv Oblast, an area of up to 10,000 sq kilometres...approaching half the size of Wales." (Comparators so far: Cyprus, two Greater Londons, three Rhode Islands)

"There's an ongoing debate about the nature of the Russian drawdown...it's likely in strict military terms this was a withdrawal, ordered & sanctioned by the General Staff,, rather than an outright collapse of troops ordered to stay put". But some L/DNR "fled in apparent panic"

Western official: "Russia is highly likely now attempting to consolidate a new defensive line east of the Oskil River...Svatove looks to be a key location in the new combat zones...It sits on one of the few major roads with which Russia can still supply its troops from Belgorod"

Western official: "We've also been following claim of a Russian general being taken prisoner during the...offensive. We can't confirm if this video footage is indeed Col-Gen Andrei Sychevoi". But "if it is", more likely he was in charge of Army formation v western group of forces

Western official says they can't confirm Ukrainian claims that commander of western group of forces has been fired and replaced w/ Aleksandr Lapin in a unified command. But "this would continue trajectory we previously observed—low tolerance for failure amongst general officers"

Western official: Aleksandr Lapin and Gen. Sergei Surovikin "are emerging as the two central field commanders who are likely to be central to Russia's battlefield fortunes"

Western official: "it's always been the case that in the Kherson region...the force ratio has been very finely balanced...In the South...they are able to move with agility, from the Russian side, to block advances. In Kharkiv oblast they've been unable to do that."

Western official: "as the nature of their campaign changes, there'll be subtle changes in the training need". Points to fact that Ukrainians will encounter more fortifications including minefields, will have to bridge the Oskil at scale, and will do all this in contested airspace

Western official: "In terms of numbers...we are still saying 'over 20,000 killed' & normal ratio three to one, in terms of wounded. So I think you will have heard people talking about 80,000 killed and wounded—that's that feels right...we've got some confidence in these figures"

Western official on nuclear risks: "there is growing pressure w/in the Russian system. Critical issue is does this get to tipping point?...Is it so threatening it threatens territorial Russia or regime or Putin personally? At this point in time, I don't think that's the case."

Western official: "Everyone is reaching straight for tactical nuclear weapons in discussions. What we saw when Russia was was struggling with [Kharkiv] we saw the next day the Russians escalate...by firing precision missiles to take out energy...there are other escalation routes"

Western official: Ukraine "far more inventive and experimental...it's much more mission command and ...devolved activity taking place that shortens decision-making cycles and allows for greater responsiveness on the battlefield. That is proving extremely effective."

Western official on Russia's dysfunctional command: "for some decisions, they are still reverting all the way back to Moscow. And back to the front line, which speaks to a lack of agility." (on which note, see my recent review, below, of @LawDavF's book economist.com/culture/2022/0…)

Western official on Ukrainian reserves: "I don't want to speak too much about the Ukr reserves for obvious reasons, except to say they are making choices about what to reinforce and they do have some elements held in in reserve..like the Russias, they are posed with a dilemma"

Western official on Russian forces on Kherson: "we still think about 10,000 Russian troops on the west bank. Morale is low, they are fragmented and they are struggling to move forces across the river. Obviously, the Ukrainians are targeting their bridging and making it unusable"

Apologies, this should say *20,000* Russian troops on the Kherson west bank. My mistake.

https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1570031522081644544?s=20&t=yaIQ720GS22UX9B55iFc8Q