1/Treating "disinformation" as a separate phenomenon from "war" is going to prove to be a catastrophic mistake. I can't tell you how many military analysts I hear doing commentary that's totally uninformed by current developments occurring in the information warfare space.
2/To the extent info ops have been consistently used to prepare for kinetic ops, they are crucial for understanding options being laid out. Unless military and intelligence views are merged into single picture, accurate analysis is simply impossible. We have huge blind spots.
3/I hear retired generals say things like "we don't want to start World War 3," and it's like "Excuse me sir, what exactly do you think this is, and where exactly do you think we are in its progression?" Military specialization free from context or current intelligence.
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1/The FBI, CIA, NSA, DIA, DOJ, Pentagon, Military etc are not monolithic. They are made up of people who belong to factions. Some of those factions are pro-democracy and have a good intelligence picture. Some do not. Dominance of anti-democracy factions is a concern.
2/It doesn't take much to 'topple' the institutional stance of a large organization. Sidelining dissenters, stacking the deck, isn't reserved for SCOTUS; it affects all of government. We should expect that the same 'tipping' strategy used there is being deployed government-wide.
3/I remain extremely concerned (even pessimistic) that our institutions a) have an accurate picture of what's going on, b) are not so factionally-dominated as to be effectively non-functional. In the wake of 9/11, we heard all about why the IC didn't "connect the dots."
1/I’m finding that it’s more useful to think of what’s going on in terms of deterministic biological processes — a grinding of biotectonic plates — than as anything strictly political or economic.
2/Do with that thought what you will, but there is a long-term aspect to this that’s under-considered.
For example this didn’t start with Trump or Putin or Xi. The gears grinding now were set in motion 100, 150 years ago. We are going through a biologic phase change of sorts.
3/Yes, I know that reifies some unsavory narratives, but it’s worth considering this angle if only to develop countermeasures against it. Left unaddressed we may find ourselves in an inexorable slide towards cataclysm. That should not be entered into without deep consideration.
1/PART 3, THE ROYALISTS: A network of pro-monarchy activists in multiple countries seeks to challenge the authority of national and local governments. These networks are loosely connected, working together, and tied to the networks we described in Parts 1 and 2 of this series.
2/The Philippines is central to this story. Myths about gold and the Marcos family's wealth have circulated for decades. In recent years these rumors have been weaponized to help drive support for Marcos family interests. rappler.com/nation/electio…
3/The pitch is that if people vote for Marcos, they will be recipients of gold which the family has set aside to be distributed to "the people." The amount of gold set aside for this purpose is allegedly vast and nearly beyond comprehension.
1/PART 2, THE AQUARIANS: In 1982, the inventor Buckminster Fuller wrote a book called "The GRUNCH of Giants," which was an echo of the forged conspiracy tome, "Protocols of the Elders of Zion" mixed with some Fullerisms. GRUNCH, a portmanteau word meaning...
2/"Gross Universal Cash Heist," the book implicated a shadowy network of bankers was robbing everyday people of their labor. He dedidcated the book to his aunt Margaret Fuller, who introduced Theosophy to the US — and to his protégés Barbara Marx Hubbard and Marilyn Ferguson.
3/Hubbard ran for Vice President in 1984 at Fuller's suggestion; Ferraro was nominated. Marilyn Ferguson wrote the book "The Aquarian Conspiracy," which envisioned a new society born from the 1970s human potential movement, and the work of Werner Erhard (founder of 'est')...
1/Just to be really clear: the warning lights are blinking red across all channels.
If more social channels had existed pre-9/11, it would likely have looked like what we see now. If the IC isn’t working overtime on this, we will fail to stop some asinine, avoidable provocation.
2/This is a moment when the entire IC, especially military intel, needs to be coordinating to follow leads and short-circuit actions at all levels, from state actors to local insurgencies. Across all NATO countries especially.
1/PART 1, THE EVENT: I’ve been working on an investigation for @WashSpec that reaches to the very top of the Kremlin. It’s a few weeks from completion, but we decided to share this work in progress early because failing to do so may place people in significant danger.
2/Vladimir Putin believes the Westphalian nation-state model is obsolete, and is ushering in his radical idea of a replacement, based on the idea of the "Noosphere" first popularized by 20th c. Russian "cosmist" Vladimir Vernadsky. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladimir_…
3/Vernadsky, a scientist much admired in both Russia and Ukraine, theorized that Earth must undergo three distinct phases. Geosphere (bare rock), Biosphere (hosting life), and Noosphere (hosting consciousness). rand.org/pubs/perspecti…