The reason the US pressures Germany to send Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine is that:

• Germany is the only European nation with 100s of tanks in storage and
• the Leopard 2 is the only European tank still in production

Yes, the M1A2 Abrams is also still in production and the
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US has 100s in storage, but there is one problem with the Abrams - no, it's not the Abrams' AGT1500 gas turbine engine as that can run on jet fuel, gasoline, diesel.

The problem is that all US Abrams tanks' armor is full of depleted uranium. And the US doesn't export that.
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More from @noclador

Sep 15
Today Italy's Army releases its vision for its future.

In it I found this image of the "battlespace of the future". I added the names of some of the systems the army says its needs in the future, only two of which the army doesn't posses:
• 🇹🇷Bayraktar TB2
• 🇮🇱IAI Harop

1/4 Image
These two systems devastated the Armenian Army in 2020.

Other interesting points:
• more, and more modern tanks and armored vehicles, and a national mass production capability for them
• massed C-RAM and C-UAS systems
• deep strike capability with ER-GMLRS, combat drones,
2/4 Image
loitering munitions, and Vulcano ammunition
• new AW249 attack helicopter, AW169 light utility helicopter, and also American Future Vertical Lift helicopters
• ballistic missile defense, more SAMP/T air defense systems, and introduction of Grifo SHORAD air defense systems
3/4 Image
Read 4 tweets
Sep 11
A little map of the situation in Northern Luhansk after the rout of the russian invaders from Kharkiv Oblast.

Black 1 = the Oskil River frontline russia tries to establish.
Red 2s = the russian units retreating - those fleeing from Northern Kharkiv are on exterior lines and
1/n Image
therefore need much more time to reach the Oskil River, than the decimated russian units that fled from Izyum over the Oskil dam. However those russian units lost much of their equipment and vehicles, and all their ammo stores, so they are in no shape to defend a new
2/n
Oskil frontline.
Purple 3s = are the two bridges on the last railway in Northern Luhansk the russians control.
Until Ukraine liberated Kupiansk russian logistics moved from Valuyki to Kupiansk, Svatove and Rubizhne (cities in purple squares). Once Ukraine HIMARSes the two
3/n Image
Read 9 tweets
Sep 8
I added the area around Yasynuvate (pink/green circle with 5) to my map from yesterday.

I have no idea how the Ukrainians got there and in what strength, but as they released video they want the russians to know that they control all roads North of Izyum now.

I also added
1/4
two arrows with the likely routes Ukrainian troops will take from Yasynuvate:
• if the Oskil river bridge in Horokhovatka isn't already himarsed, then the Ukrainians will head there to cut off the last russian escape route East.
• and the Ukrainians will head to
2/4
Chystovodivka as it's an ideal ambush spot for russian coming from the West, that are trying to reach the bridge in Horokhovatka.

The Ukrainians also reached Hrushivka outside Kupiansk and now the russian logistic hub and the railyard in Kupiansk are in 120mm mortar range.

3/4
Read 4 tweets
Sep 7
Moshe Schwartz (@YWNReporter) geolocated this video of a russian pontoon ferry coming under attack on the Dnipro in Nova Kakhovka.

Injured russians, panicked russian meme face, etc. aside - but I want to know what hit this ferry.

1/n
1) the precision of the impact makes it clear that a guided projectile hit the ferry
2) and the distance from the ferry to Ukrainian lines makes it impossible that 155 mm artillery projectiles were used. The ferry's location is even outside the range of Excalibur projectiles.
2/n Image
3) this leaves M142 HIMARS fired GMLRS missiles... but the explosive force of three M31A1 would have caused way more death and destruction, and likely sunk the ferry. While a M30A1 would have shredded every living thing on the ferry... so both of these can be ruled out too.
3/n Image
Read 8 tweets
Sep 7
Biden won't declare russia to be a "state sponsor of terrorism", as Biden foolishly still hopes russia will help him get a new bonkers Iran deal...

1) if Iran signs a deal it can throw millions of barrels of oil on the market, depressing oil prices... but high oil prices
1/4
prices are now the main source of income for russia and putin needs this to finance his war in Ukraine
2) and russia has no interest to pressure Iran, as russia needs Iranian drones and ammo for putin's war in Ukraine
3) last but not least - if there is no deal either Israel
2/4
or the US will have to attack Iran to stop the Mullahs from enriching Uranium for a nuclear bomb... putin likely wants such a Iran-US/Israel confrontation in the (vain) hope this would slow the US help for Ukraine

Biden (and his national security council team) are foolish
3/4
Read 4 tweets
Sep 7
I am not very good at graphics, but I tried to draw up an explainer for the Ukrainian Kupiansk Offensive:

Redish = the territory occupied by russia

• yesterday Ukrainian troops liberated Balakliia (Blue 1)
• during the night Ukrainian troops moved to Volokhiv Yar (Blue 2)
1/n Image
• currently Ukrainian troops are advancing to Shevchenkove (Blue 3)

Once Ukrainian troops have firmly established themselves in these three settlements, the russian forces in the black hatched area must retreat North or will be crushed by Ukrainian forces.

2/n
Once the black hatched area is cleared Ukraine can move its M777 up and take the rail and road junctions, and russian supply depots in Kupiansk under fire.

The outer yellow rings show the range of M982 Excalibur rounds for precision strikes and the inner yellow rings show

3/n Image
Read 9 tweets

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