Thread by @KholoodKhair

We need to talk about the next coup in #Sudan.

There are worrying signs that the coup alliance is not holding. While many are preoccupied with the divisions amongst the pro dem forces, not enough attention is given to divisions and competing interests between security actors. +

https://twitter.com/SudanTribune_EN/status/1570312957623508993

The 2021 coup was staged by Islamists and military actors to i.a. protect financial interests and allay immediate fears of accountability and SSR, respectively. That alliance was reliant on support from a) Islamists and b) JPA signatories.
The coup saw the return of Islamists +

to the public sector eg electricity + media (some'd never left). Those are the very people striking now. Whatever compact the Islamists had with Burhan may no longer be holding and it's always a possibility that they'd replace Burhan for his failure to consolidate the coup. +

Similar divergences can be seen within the security alliance primarily between Hemedti and Burhan (recently on new Constitutional doc) and between the two + JPA signatories (inc. bilateral re/alignment). The JPA was mostly predicated on power AND wealth sharing. While political +

positions were divvied up long ago, since the coup the well has dried up and, with $$$ a major motivator for JPA signatories, the coup regime's lack of funds may be driving divisions amongst the signatories and with their erstwhile patrons.
Competing financial interests between +

the Islamists and the JPA signatories should not be underestimated either. While one signatory is BOTH Islamist and signatory (JEM), the rest are not. Neither is Hemedti. Burhan has no way to manage these competing interests.
Ironically, engaging in SSR, $ accountability and TJ +

the very things that SAF has been resisting, could be a much safer and organised way to broach some of these sticky issues and quell competing interests. The alternatives - another coup/ return to war/ civil war or all of the above, are, ultimately, not good for anyone.
#Sudan