At #APSA2022, Enders, @JoeUscinski & @klofstad asks: Have conspiracy beliefs increased over time?
Pundits say we live in a "golden age" of conspiracy beliefs. Surveys show that the public agrees: 73% believe that conspiracy theories are "out of control".
But is it true? 1/10
Pundits say we live in a "golden age" of conspiracy beliefs. Surveys show that the public agrees: 73% believe that conspiracy theories are "out of control".
But is it true? 1/10
If true, there are reason for concern.
Conspiracy beliefs correlate with a range of problematic behavior including anti-social personality, non-normative behavior (incl violence) & lack of positive health behavior.
But noone has actually tried to test whether it is true. 2/10
Conspiracy beliefs correlate with a range of problematic behavior including anti-social personality, non-normative behavior (incl violence) & lack of positive health behavior.
But noone has actually tried to test whether it is true. 2/10
The key problem with testing is *data*. We don't have many over-time sources of conspiracy beliefs.
But we have some! 3/10
But we have some! 3/10
The analytical strategy is to compare different time points and go back in time as long as possible (including pre-social media as this is often argued to cause presumed rise in conspiracy beliefs). It is also important to have variation in topics, saliences and survey mode. 4/10
The primary data source is a survey from May 2021 of 2021 (yes, 2021) Americans. Compare this survey to any conspiracy belief polls that can be found. The oldest is from 1966 on JFK assisination. But also old data about Lennon, Tupac, MLK, Pearl Harbor etc. 5/10
First test looks at covid conspiracy beliefs over the pandemic, i.e., a short but relevant time interval. They are relatively stable across the pandemic, with tendency to decline. 6/10
Second test looks at support for QAnon from '18 until '21. The trend is also decreasing over time, despite the fact that QAnon is much more widely known today than previously. Deep-state and sex-trafficking beliefs are stable. 7/10
Third test examines the longer time span. Of 37 conspiracy beliefs, only 6 show increase (from 4-10 %-points). 15 show significant decrease (from 3-31 %-point). So, the average development is negative. 8/10
Overall, the data (and there are lots more than covered in this thread) suggest that we do not live in an age of conspiracy beliefs. But there are caveats: Says nothing about elite behavior or exposure to conspiracy theories (even if they are not believed). 9/10
This means that we should not assume that people are getting worse in spotting false information with important implications for, e.g., free-speech. 10/10
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