Montrose Group, a Republican public affairs firm in Columbus, has released a wide-ranging poll that includes #OHGov and #OHSen. It was conducted Sept. 6-11, the week Republicans ramped up their spending in the race.


DeWine 49 Whaley 37

Ryan 46 Vance 43
The poll was done by Fallon Research, which I'm not very familiar with, but which did some polling for Mary Taylor's Super PAC in 2018.

Montrose generally deals with economic development issues, and there are a bunch of Cap Square-type Qs.

Cross tabs:…
Final note on this, this poll is among registered voters, but the methodological notes say the voters either have "histories of voting in recent even-year November elections" or are new registrants.
I lied about that being the final note. Since I got a question about the methodology, here is the full language: Image

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More from @AndrewJTobias

Sep 15
With Ohio Democrats getting hopeful about poll results in the Senate race, the Ohio Republican Party has issued a press release that includes this story I wrote in 2020.…
"Recent polls showing a tied race between JD Vance and Lyin' Tim Ryan may not be wholly accurate based on pollsters' performance in recent election cycles, but we are taking nothing for granted," says ORP spokesman Dan Lusheck.
Bad polling in Ohio has left me as a political reporter to basically fly blind in setting expectations for races I'm covering. But the polls leading up to the May primary did actually basically get it right for a change.…
Read 4 tweets
Sep 15
Ohio Supreme Court Chief Justice Maureen O'Connor is delivering her final State of the Judiciary address.

"We've come a long way together," she kicks off.
O'Connor basically has been excommunicated from the Republican Party over her repeated rulings against the GOP in redistricting litigation this year, and the GOP state leg leaders have taken to basically ignoring the court on redistricting, so I'm interested to see what she says.
O'Connor announces the Ohio Supreme Court will be updating its terrible website, launching a redesign on Oct. 1. Now there's an idea whose time has come.
Read 5 tweets
May 5
Per @ZackMS, JD Vance won 74 of Ohio's 88 counties, while Josh Mandel won 11 and Matt Dolan won 3. Check out a map here:…
There's also a map showing which counties Tim Ryan won in the Democratic Senate primary. Spoiler alert: it's a map of Ohio.…
You can also see how Gov. Mike DeWine did -- he won 64 of 88 counties, while Joe Blystone won 22.…
Read 4 tweets
May 4
Hello from the Ohio Redistricting Commission. A new front has opened up in Ohio's fight over redistricting. Republicans are questioning expenses paid to an outside Democratic mapmaking consultant as Democrats request permission to pay him more money.
In case you're wondering, Gov. Mike DeWine said before this meeting that he went to bed last night at 10:30 p.m. "Early for an Election Night."
After all that, it looks like the expenses will be approved. Now, the commission is discussing whether to bring back the outside mapmakers.

But first, Secretary of State Frank LaRose is talking about what he views as the logistical challenges of approving any new maps.
Read 7 tweets
May 4
Fox News just showed JD Vance's lead in Ohio's Republican Senate primary on the screen here at Vance HQ. The crowd let out a cheer.
Shifting to a straight up celebration here as Fox News cuts in with a live shot of the room.
Vance will give a victory speech in five minutes or so.
Read 7 tweets
Oct 14, 2021
I've landed in Versailles, Ohio for a Republican U.S. Senate candidate forum tonight. It will be the first one of these that I'm aware of, and many more are to come. The only major candidate who won't be here is Sen. Matt Dolan, who has a scheduling issue.
Ahead of the event, a text has gone out promoting this Big League Politics post as a "question for tonight's forum" to ask of Josh Mandel. So the funny business has commenced.…
The event's moderators are Jack Windsor, formerly of DeWine press conference fame, and Maurice Thompson, a conservative lawyer who led several COVID lawsuits against the DeWine administration. So I really don't know what to expect.
Read 27 tweets

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