Thread by @TrentTelenko

At a rough guess, Russia abandoned a mechanized division worth of fighting vehicles, a reinforcing brigade's worth of artillery, and between a fifth and a third of it's artillery shell reserves in Ukraine behind in the Kharkiv Oblast.

Logistics & Armistice🧵
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https://twitter.com/CalibreObscura/status/1570308705668988930

It will take a month(+) to effect repairs & replace Soviet radios with encrypted NATO spec radios in the Kharkiv gear.

The near-cut off nature of Russia's Kherson beachhead means Ukraine will likely capture another divisions worth of military fighting vehicles & artillery.
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1-2 full divisions' worth of "trophied" Russian vehicle sets & up to 1 million captured Russian artillery shells covers most of the shortfall in supply from the West required to build AFU numbers up for the "deoccupation" of the South and Crimea.

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Let's be clear about the military-political implications of those facts going forward.

Strictly speaking, Ukraine doesn't need the West any more to push Russia completely out of its pre-2014 borders.

All cutting off or slow rolling further Western Military aid will do

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... is increase Ukrainian casualties without changing the final outcome

The Washington DC De-escalation faction no longer has any influence on stopping those events inside Ukraine.

So Washington DC needs to be thinking in terms of what the pending Armistice terms will be.
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Ukraine will demand the return of it's kidnapped population, especially its children, & Russia will never, ever comply.

All Western economic sanctions will be conditioned on those Armistice terms because of all the Russian atrocities which will surface between now and then.

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Those images and the megatons of paper & electronic documents that have/will fall to Ukraine will forever alter Russia's economic relations with the West.

Short form: Russia will no longer be a direct supplier of raw materials to the West, w/all the supply chain implications
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...that come with this fundamental restructuring of the global economy.

The German government & German multi-nationals will go apoplectic over this new economic world order the Russo-Ukrainian Armistice will imposed upon them.

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Ukraine's economy inside NATO & the EU will give Germany a major heavy industrial competitor inside the EU that has lower wages and the Donbass coal & oil energy reserves - whose development will be funded by seized Russian foreign currency reserves - to draw upon.

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Much of Germany's bizarre military aid policies vis-a'-vis Ukraine make sense if you are looking at Germany's narrow economic interests in a post Ukrainian NATO & EU membership Europe.

The longer & more damaged Ukraine is in its war with Russia, the better for Germany

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...is economically in the near to mid-term.

Germany without Russian cheap energy facing a rebuilding heavy industry focused Ukraine with Donbass energy reserves is in serious economic straits.

Germany's economic interests mean it is going to be worse than Hungary is
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...regarding the enforcement of the terms of any future Russo-Ukrainian Armistice.

The future is going to be even worse of the Washington DC De-escalation faction.

Their dreams of a "Russian counterweight" to China are 'deader than disco.'
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Their two futures are managing a China with a hermit kingdom Russia as an ally.

Or two, it will face a post-Russian Federation collapse world of rampant nuclear proliferation across Asia as post-Russian states keep their Russian nukes as a hedge against China & each other.
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These two futures could have been prevented if Ukraine had been given a major security aid program of surplus F-16's, Abrams Tanks & Bradley Fighting vehicles after 2015.

The DC De-escalation elites didn't wanna, now we all are going to live in one of those two futures.
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