Thread by @M_B_Petersen

At #APSA2022, @soerendamsbo examines how experiences of extreme weather influence pro-climate voting.

There is alot of evidence that extreme weather influence pro-climate attitudes but we know little about whether behavioral outcomes are influenced too. 1/8

There is prior evidence that extreme weather doesn't lead to more private environmental behavior but some evidence that it increases attention to weather on the web and social media. 2/8

Does it influence *political* behavior in the form of pro-climate voting?

Some work suggest "yes" and that pro-climate voting increases efter flooding and wildfires. But there also other work suggesting null-effects. More data is needed! 3/8

The focus here is on Denmark and the effects of a storm surge on Dec 5 in 2013, which led to flooding in many parts of the country and massive damage around the coast lines. [personal testimony from a fellow Dane: it was pretty intense!] 4/8

The data is geocoded storm surge insurance cases (~3,000) from the storm. The 1st analysis focuses on how voting for pro-climate parties are influenced by local damages, coupling parliamentary election data from 2011-2015 with the flooding data in a diff-in-diff design. 5/8

The results suggests that flooding increased voting for pro-climate parties with 2-4 %-points. 6/8

The 2nd analysis uses the same design and focuses on support for pro-climate candidates, using surveys on candidates' climate opinions. Candidates that prioritize climate receive 5 % more support in heavily flooded areas (even more, if they are from pro-climate parties). 7/8

Overall, extreme weather can have significant, long-lasting behavior on actual behavior in later elections. 8/8