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Dmitri Alperovitch Profile picture
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Sep 16 • 2 tweets • 1 min read
Putin on the war: “The plan is not subject to change… Main goal is the full liberation of the Donbas, this work continues despite the attempts at counteroffensives of the Ukrainian army” 1/2
Putin: “Gradually, the Russian army occupies more and more territories… We are not fighting with a full army, we are fighting only with part of the Russian army, only with contractors... Therefore, we do not rush in this regard” 2/2

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More from @DAlperovitch

Dmitri Alperovitch Profile picture
Sep 14
Remarkable video from a prison colony in Russia of Prigozhin himself recruiting inmates for Wagner
Full translation here
Full video:
Read 12 tweets
Dmitri Alperovitch Profile picture
Aug 30
One of the objectives that @DrRadchenko and I wanted to achieve in our @ForeignAffairs piece (link below) is to debunk some of the prevailing myths about Russia. Here are the most important ones: 🧵

foreignaffairs.com/russian-federa…
Myth #1: Once Putin leaves power/dies, Russia will abandon its anti-Western belligerent policies and return to the bosom of the liberal Western order

Reality: Putin is most likely to be replaced by another hardliner who will continue or even accelerate his aggressive policies
Myth #2: It's only a matter of time before Russia turns into a Jeffersonian democracy with the rule of law, free press, etc

Reality: Democracy has become a dirty word in Russia over the last 3 decades. Even long after Putin is gone, the Russian public is unlikely to desire it
Read 9 tweets
Dmitri Alperovitch Profile picture
Aug 24
"Despite the flaws that would emerge in Russia’s war planning, the outcome of the battle for Kyiv was far from predetermined"

washingtonpost.com/national-secur…
"A senior U.S. defense official said Washington knew more about Russia’s plan to invade than about Ukraine’s plan for defense, fueling doubts about how Kyiv would fare"
"U.S. officials suspected that the Ukrainian military was wary of sharing war plans while its political leadership was downplaying the likelihood of war, the official said, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive matter."
Read 13 tweets
Dmitri Alperovitch Profile picture
Jul 14
I am very proud of this inaugural report from Cyber Safety Review Board (CSRB) on the #Log4j incident. Grateful for the leadership of our Board Chair @DHS_Policy and Deputy Chair @argvee. Here are the most important highlights from my perspective 🧵
1. CSRB has found NO EVIDENCE of any malicious exploitation of vulnerability prior to the December 9th public disclosure of the vulnerability. This is important since there was speculation about whether China or any other country may have had early knowledge and exploited the bug
Public reporting prior to our investigation had indicated the opposite, so it was important for us to try to get to the bottom of this issue
Read 14 tweets
Dmitri Alperovitch Profile picture
Jul 3
Time to talk about realistic ways to lift the Black Sea blockade which, as I've discussed on many occasions, remains the most important strategic issue for Ukraine in this war (since their victory in the Battle of Kyiv in March) 🧵
With the blockade in place, Ukraine's export-driven economy simply can't survive without billions of dollars of continuous monthly support from the West
And millions of jobs in Ukraine are dependent on the agricultural, extraction and industrial sectors that can't survive without the reopening of at least the Odesa ports (Mariupol and Kherson would obviously be very helpful too, if they can someday be recaptured)
Read 28 tweets
Dmitri Alperovitch Profile picture
Jul 2
Thoughts on Russian power...

We certainly went quick from 'Russia is destroying our democracy' to 'Russia is not a great power and is irrelevant on the world stage'. Both are dramatic overstatements of reality... 🧵
Yes, Russia is nowhere close in its ability to project power globally as US or China. That's obvious. It is only the 11th largest economy in the world and highly dependent on resource extraction (even more so now after latest sanctions)
Yes, its performance in Ukraine has been atrocious - both in terms of planning the invasion, logistics, troop training and performance, etc. Yet, it still has occupied over 20% of the country even with Ukraine consuming large quantities of Western military aid and intelligence
Read 9 tweets

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