Thread by @FHeisbourg

@Strategic_Ark 🇺🇦 trip thread 2. Military matters
1. Air defence notably vs cruise & other missiles is now on top of 🇺🇦's list of concerns & therefore of materiel acquisition policy. The US (Patriot, NASAMS), UK-France-Italy (the MBDA countries, as it were. SAMP-T came up) 1/12

Germany's IRIS-T got strong mentions. The objective is to "close the sky" of 🇺🇦 to 🇷🇺. The alternative of 🇺🇦 acquiring long-range missiles to do to the 🇷🇺 population what 🇷🇺 does to Ukraine was not mentioned by the officials I heard 2/12

2. What should the West supply?
Air defence always came first follwed by ATACMs & other long range precision (emphasis) strike weapons; tanks & AICVs; U (C) AVs of all sorts; jammers; advanced coms. The list is clearly not exhaustive but it appeared to be prioritised. 3/12

There is unhappiness with the logistical problem of running disparate systems & the discovery that NATO standards (eg 155mm shells) doesn't lead to full interoperability. There is a strong desire to have maintenance facilities hosted outside of 🇺🇦 (my note: indeed why not 4/12

3. Next offensive? At the appropriate mil level, there is a keen understanding that the current Eastern offensive must not be pushed beyond its militarily rational limits; the troops used (army, police, border guards) & their materiel weren't particularly fresh to begin with 5/12

The Kherson offensive had helped distract the 🇷🇺s from Kharkiv but wasn't a feint. The Russians in the South are seen as more demoralised than those in the North
4. Personnel. I got no sense of what kind of renewal and sustainability system 🇺🇦 would adopt for its forces as...6/12

...the war lengthens (note: in WWI 🇫🇷 it wasn't till 1915 that home leave+unit rotation policies began to emerge. They are part of organising for a long war).
5. Views on Western arms supplies: unsurprisingly, there are never enough foreign supplies (more in thread 3). 7/12

There were sharp words at a high political level vis à vis 🇮🇱; the Realpolitik of 🇮🇱 not delivering offensive weapons is understood but not the refusal on anti-missile systems. There was also a keen desire to tap into countries with Soviet legacy ammo, spares etc... 8/12

...with Egypt, Indonesia, Jordan, Pakistan being mentioned. Frustration was expressed, all the more so since their assets and leaders are well known. The assumption is that only the 🇺🇸 make them move. 🇫🇷 🇬🇧 🇩🇪 were not mentioned in this respect. 9/12

Bottom-lines :
A) with the limited exceptions mentioned in the previous point, I found the Ukrainians (not only the @ZelenskyyUa) to be remarkably easy-tempered, unabrasive, with a calm+confident mood but no cockiness
B) air-missile defence is of the essence & a big push...10/12

...here has much to commend it strategically and in human terms compared to the alternatives of doing symetrical strikes against Russian cities, or of doing nothing
A 3d thread on what the West is and should be doing on the military supply side will follow tomorrow 11/12

And a few pictures from the war. The white poster is about recruitment. 12/13

And a few others. The orange stencil says the equivalent of "looters will shot" 13/13