Thread by @trbrtc

We took a closer look at the video in which a man, who strongly resembles a Putin associate, Yevgeny Prigozhin, promises inmates release from prison in return for a six-month combat tour in Russia's war against Ukraine:
nytimes.com/2022/09/16/wor…

The video was uploaded to “Kremlin Whispers,” an anonymous Telegram channel, on Sept. 14. The user who shared it wrote that the video had been leaked a day earlier by an employee of the penal colony to a local VKontakte group, where it was deleted within an hour. HT @sotaproject.

The original video was apparently 30 minutes long. We were only able to obtain an edited version of just over 5 minutes of the speech, which was delivered at a penal colony (ФКУ ИК-6) in the Republic of Mari El, about 400 miles east of Moscow.

https://twitter.com/trbrtc/status/1570099805417881602

We asked @ugail, a specialist in facial recognition, to compare the face of the man in the video with known images of Prigozhin. While Prigozhin's company Concord didn't confirm nor deny it was him, Ugail's analysis concluded they were “highly likely to be the same individual.”

We also asked a voice recognition expert to compare the voice of the man in the video to this one. Unfortunately, the results were inconclusive due to the noisy reference audio. (If anyone has more reference audio of Prigozhin, please reach out.)

We weren't able to determine the exact date of the speech, but a reference to prisoners fighting with Wagner attacking the Vuhlehirsk thermal power plant (Вуглегірська ТЕС) in eastern Ukraine on June 1 suggests it was sometime in the last three months.

The man's claim can be corroborated with reporting by @istories_media, which noted in July that at least 3 convicts from a penal colony in St. Petersburg (ИК-7 «Яблоневка») had been recruited by Wagner and were killed in Ukraine's Donbas region. t.me/istories_media…

There are also Russian reports that Wagner, alongside DNR and LNR folks, took the lead in the assault on the power plant in Vuhlehirsk. This fighter, talking to Prigozhin-linked RIA FAN, describes the eventual successful attack in a strikingly similar way to how Prigozhin did.

This video speaks for itself. “June 26, 2022. 10 o'clock. The Vuhlehirsk TPP was taken by the detachment which exclusively listens to the music of Richard Wagner. Greetings to everyone.”

In another video report, Russian journalist Andrey Guselnikov said that LNR artillery helped Wagner during the assault, but that it mostly came down to “very harsh” close-range fights. The shock troops mentioned in the penal colony speech, one could say.

It's clear that Wagner took part, or even led, the attack on the Vuhlehirsk TPP. But Prigozhin's speech is the first time we hear a particular place where prisoners were used to fight, @CandaceRondeaux told me.

It's unclear to what extent Russia's Federal Penitentiary Service is involved with Wagner. @Jack_Mrgln: “It's one thing for the mercenary captain to be telling you that you're never going back to jail. But it's entirely different when the prison service grants you amnesty.”

Russia is desperate for recruits. As @CandaceRondeaux puts it: using a convicted felon with no real military experience to marshal thousands of men for your war in Ukraine “tells you something about the mentality of the Kremlin right now.” nytimes.com/2022/09/16/wor…

(For reference: Prigozhin himself spent 9 years in prison when he was in his twenties for robbery, fraud, and involving teenagers in crime. @meduza_en has the translated court documents.) meduza.io/en/feature/202…

If you're interested in learning more about Wagner recruiting practices within Russia's prison system, I recommend reading the work of Russia Behind Bars. According to their founder, only 10% of convicts return alive. theins.ru/en/opinion/olg…

This deeper look at the video was a short investigation with @msalexkoroleva, @NatalieReneau, @bottidavid and @markscheffler. Thanks @CandaceRondeaux, @Jack_Mrgln, @JakeGodin, @MackjackMaier, @sotaproject, @christogrozev, @AricToler, @AbraxasSpa and others for providing info.

The @nytimes Visual Investigations team will continue to track and investigate Wagner in Ukraine and elsewhere, such as recently in Mali: nytimes.com/2022/05/31/wor…. Please reach out if you have tips or suggestions. Secure ways of communication can be provided via DM.

Oh, and here is a link to the article: nytimes.com/2022/09/16/wor…