On September 15th, Ukrainians released a video from the east side of Kupyansk (1), which Russia had previously controlled. On the map, I marked this area “contested,” and I will change it to “captured” with more information.
Ukrainian soldiers also published videos of a pontoon crossing south of Izyum (2). Ukrainian light infantry is pushing through the old pine forest toward Luhansk oblast. It is unclear where Russia will choosedefend, perhaps near the Zherebets River (the thick light blue line).
Ukrainian forces are attacking Yarova (3), Lyman (4), and Yampil (5). The attack on Lyman is progressing. From what I gather, the fighting is now within the town rather than the surrounding forest. I have no information about Yampil, but I believe Russia holds it firmly.
Yarova is likely less defended, and it is possible Ukraine captured it, although I do not have any information on the result of their attack today.
Ukraine is developing its bridgehead in the Oskil area, where I suspect they will push east until they reach the main Russian defensive line. Likely, Ukraine will attempt to break through Lyman and move east toward Kreminna, Rubizhne, and Severodonetsk.
If you remember, Russia captured Lyman only after breaking the surrounding defenses and threatening to encircle it.
Ukraine is attempting to do to take the town back in a similar manner. They could try to capture Drobysheve and then move toward Stavky and threaten Zarichne (A), for example. Or they could break through Yampil and push toward Zarichne that way (B). Or even go through Dibrova (C)
Ukraine is attacking east in the areas of Bilohorivka (6) and Spirne (7). I am still unclear on whether Ukraine controls Bilohorivka, but there is ongoing fighting in this area.
There is ongoing fighting in the Bakhmut area in Bakhmut (8), Vesela Dolyna (9), Zaitseve (10,11), and Odradivka (12) without any notable changes.
There is ongoing fighting in the Avdiivka area in Krasnohorivka (13) and Avdiivka (14). Russia fired a massive artillery barrage into Avdiivka today.
South of Donetsk, Russia attacked Novomykhailivka (15) without success.
South of Orikhiv, Ukraine tried to break through the Russian defenses near Nesterianka (16), but the attack appeared to have failed. They attempted a similar attack on September 14th.
In the Kherson area, Ukraine attacked near Pravdyne (17). I am unsure who controls Pravdyne at the moment, so I marked it contested. For this reason, I am unsure where exactly Ukraine attacked, whether they are pushing further south from Pravdyne or attacking the town itself.
Since I do not know who controls the area, I marked Ukraine as attacking the town itself. Russians claim to have repelled this attack.
Russia fired more missiles into the dam near Kryvyi Rih (D), further hindering Ukraine’s ability to repair the damaged area.
In addition to the general military news, Ukrainian special forces and/or partisans attacked Russian collaborators in three different cities.
In Luhansk city, the General Prosecutor, Sergei Gorenko, and deputy General Prosecutor, Kateryna Steglenko, were killed by a bomb in their office.
In Berdyansk, Oleg and Lyudmila Boyka died from a bomb in their garage.
In Kherson, a bomb exploded in the Court of Appeals during a meeting between collaborators.
In Melitopol, there was an explosion, but Russians claim it was a planned detonation of unexploded ordinance from prior missile attacks.
That is all I have for today.
If you wish to read this as a blog, the link is in the first tweet.
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The main thing that any educated person needs to keep in mind at all times is that realpolitik is fake and everyone who believes in it is typically universally wrong on every single word they ever say.
It is especially funny because realpolitik people are almost never experts in any domain, and they get their info from aggregators. And those aggregators know the realpolitik people use them, and as such present info in a way most likely to influence the realpolitik.
They end up just being unwitting amplifiers of misinformation.
Frankly I think the fastest way to end the war in Ukraine is not by sending tanks or by idiotic peace proposals. The fastest way is to set up factories across europe to produce 1000-2000 long range strike drones per day, and launch hundreds if not thousands of drones into Russia every single day until the country collapses. If they think sending 500 drones into Ukraine is a threat, see how they respond when 3000 drones fly into Russia.
With this many drones you can hammer every single factory, powerplant, substation, oil refinery, and mine in russia relentlessly.
Europe had a million drone program, to supply 1 million fpv drones. Fuck fpv drones. Have a 1 million drone program to supply 1 million strike drones. That's your million drones.
The "stupid westerners, sanctions do not work, we smuggle goods in illegally. muahaha, Russia unstoppable" people tickle me. Sanctions are not for stopping goods entirely, they are for increasing friction because the resources you spend smuggling are resources not spent growing
People fundamentally don't understand the purpose of a sanction. Sanctions are not to stop the war now, although they do damage Russia, the real goal of a sanction is long term economic damage to permanently shrink their economic growth on the timescale of decades.
The sanction is basically saying "okay, you're a threat to me today, and maybe I can't do much about it now, but I will shrink you and outgrow you so in 50-100 years you are no longer a threat to me at all". It is a long term play.
The Russians claim they shoot down Ukrainian aircraft the moment the missile leaves the tube, but we're supposed to believe they shot down two Black Hawks on Tuesday and only announced it after Ukraine leaked Black Hawk footage on Friday. These Black Hawks join the 650 F-16s and 450,000 M777s Russia has 'destroyed.'
GUYS. I AM GOING TO POST A VIDEO WHERE I WILL BLUR THE UNIT LOGOS TO SHIT SO NOBODY CAN TELL I STOLE THE VIDEOS FROM THE ARCHIVE AND THEN POST IT TO THE INTERNET SAYING I KILLED ALL THE SPECIAL FORCES
And then media outlets and super smart think tank people all over the world will believe me for some reason and then everyone will be like omg all the special forces died.
Guys I took my division and charged them into combat and while we lost 50% of our armored vehicles and 45% of our infantry are dead, and several of our HQs were destroyed and most of our best officers are dead, we captured a village where 200 once lived so we’re winning the war.
Tomorrow we will send our next division to assault the next village. That one had a population of 1200. Its actually considered a huge city, when you think about it. If we can capture that, we will send our third division to capture the hamlet behind it.