Andrew Perpetua Profile picture
Sep 17, 2022 23 tweets 7 min read Read on X
Update for September 16th ukrdailyupdate.com/updates/update…
My update for September 16th. #ukrdailtupdate

If you would like to view the map, here is the link: google.com/maps/d/u/0/edi…
On September 15th, Ukrainians released a video from the east side of Kupyansk (1), which Russia had previously controlled. On the map, I marked this area “contested,” and I will change it to “captured” with more information.
Ukrainian soldiers also published videos of a pontoon crossing south of Izyum (2). Ukrainian light infantry is pushing through the old pine forest toward Luhansk oblast. It is unclear where Russia will choosedefend, perhaps near the Zherebets River (the thick light blue line).
Ukrainian forces are attacking Yarova (3), Lyman (4), and Yampil (5). The attack on Lyman is progressing. From what I gather, the fighting is now within the town rather than the surrounding forest. I have no information about Yampil, but I believe Russia holds it firmly.
Yarova is likely less defended, and it is possible Ukraine captured it, although I do not have any information on the result of their attack today.
Ukraine is developing its bridgehead in the Oskil area, where I suspect they will push east until they reach the main Russian defensive line. Likely, Ukraine will attempt to break through Lyman and move east toward Kreminna, Rubizhne, and Severodonetsk.
If you remember, Russia captured Lyman only after breaking the surrounding defenses and threatening to encircle it.
Ukraine is attempting to do to take the town back in a similar manner. They could try to capture Drobysheve and then move toward Stavky and threaten Zarichne (A), for example. Or they could break through Yampil and push toward Zarichne that way (B). Or even go through Dibrova (C)
Ukraine is attacking east in the areas of Bilohorivka (6) and Spirne (7). I am still unclear on whether Ukraine controls Bilohorivka, but there is ongoing fighting in this area.
There is ongoing fighting in the Bakhmut area in Bakhmut (8), Vesela Dolyna (9), Zaitseve (10,11), and Odradivka (12) without any notable changes.
There is ongoing fighting in the Avdiivka area in Krasnohorivka (13) and Avdiivka (14). Russia fired a massive artillery barrage into Avdiivka today.
South of Donetsk, Russia attacked Novomykhailivka (15) without success.
South of Orikhiv, Ukraine tried to break through the Russian defenses near Nesterianka (16), but the attack appeared to have failed. They attempted a similar attack on September 14th.
In the Kherson area, Ukraine attacked near Pravdyne (17). I am unsure who controls Pravdyne at the moment, so I marked it contested. For this reason, I am unsure where exactly Ukraine attacked, whether they are pushing further south from Pravdyne or attacking the town itself.
Since I do not know who controls the area, I marked Ukraine as attacking the town itself. Russians claim to have repelled this attack.
Russia fired more missiles into the dam near Kryvyi Rih (D), further hindering Ukraine’s ability to repair the damaged area.
In addition to the general military news, Ukrainian special forces and/or partisans attacked Russian collaborators in three different cities.
In Luhansk city, the General Prosecutor, Sergei Gorenko, and deputy General Prosecutor, Kateryna Steglenko, were killed by a bomb in their office.
In Berdyansk, Oleg and Lyudmila Boyka died from a bomb in their garage.
In Kherson, a bomb exploded in the Court of Appeals during a meeting between collaborators.
In Melitopol, there was an explosion, but Russians claim it was a planned detonation of unexploded ordinance from prior missile attacks.
That is all I have for today.

If you wish to read this as a blog, the link is in the first tweet.

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More from @AndrewPerpetua

Jul 3
The United States government is built on the concept that Congressmen will have the swagger to take pride in their station. The government hinges on congress enforcing their will upon others. They are supposed to be arrogant sons of bitches who look down on others.
The moment you have a congress that is unwilling or incapable of being arrogant, condescending assholes and you instead have weak placating losers, the whole foundation of the government crumbles. The supreme arrogance of congress is what lets them reign in power of president.
Right now the US has the weakest congress in its history. A bunch of spineless losers who are incapable of even having independent thought. They are owned entirely by others, especially the republican party who bows to a president. Imagine, a CONGRESSMEN bowing to a PRESIDENT.
Read 7 tweets
Jun 23
A few areas where I have been focusing on geoing strikes on Russians positions lately have been interesting in that only a very tiny number of Russians are defending. In one area in particular, the video showed a drone scan a series of trenches where only four Russians were spotted. Two killed and two forced to flee. I wonder what is behind those Russians, and whether it is similarly a skeleton crew on defense. Also, these Russians were quite far from Ukrainian positions, so they were not some extremely advanced forward position, they seem to me to be the second and/or third line of defense, which are typically more heavily manned.
When I see video like this, from an area very far from offensive actions, where Russia is purely defending, it makes me wonder how different the war would be if Ukraine had the capacity to attack this location. I feel like if Ukraine were to attack and capture it, many people online would say the area doesn't matter because it is only advancing 1km or blah blah. But advancing 1km is important, because it forces Russians to divert resources away from attacking to defending. Or you will advance a second k, or a third km until such a point that the Russians are forced to defend.
There is an area where Ukraine has been slowly advancing in this manner. Nobody is really talking about it, because it isn't sexy. It doesn't impact any large battles, it isn't a sign of things to come, or anything else. It is just Ukraine taking advantage of Russia failing to adequately defend positions.
Read 5 tweets
May 23
Ukraine does not have an adequate air force, but it can create the effects of an air force using other methods and tools. For example, long-range drones can be deployed in a series of nested concentric circles to mine and harass supply roads, effectively cutting them off.

One layer of drones could strike targets 100 km out, the next at 80 km, then 60 km, 40 km, and finally, the remaining drones could dominate the last 20–30 km leading to the front.

With sufficient drone coverage density, the impact on enemy logistics can closely mirror that of a conventional air force—cutting off supplies and limiting troop movements.

Furthermore, the development of heavier strike drones, with payloads between 100 and 500 kg, can replicate the effects of traditional airstrikes. In conjunction with attack drones, this combination becomes a deadly one-two punch: attack drones locate and relay target positions, and heavier strike drones follow up with rapid and destructive precision.

Once the enemy's rear positions are degraded to this extent, the front becomes unsustainable. The opposing force will be forced to withdraw, regardless of intent.

Ukraine does not need large offensive pushes to defeat Russia. It needs extremely high-density drone coverage to deny Russian sustainment. Land can be taken back piece by piece, without committing to large and costly ground assaults.
All but the heavy strike drones can be done with the technology that Ukraine has available today, right now. The strike drones could be developed in short order. This is a realistic path to victory using the tools and resources available. And one which Europe could help using financing alone.
Europe could also provide longer range weapons for Ukraine’s existing aircraft, which is frankly a much more unrealistic path forward. Albeit possible. And Europe doesn’t really have the weapons available to give, so would require making them first.
Read 4 tweets
May 10
After Trump put Fedex guys in charge of USPS, the democrats should issue an official warning that any aspect of USPS that might get “privatized” under trump will be immediately seized, without compensation, by the following administration and congress.
There should be an open air understanding that any aspect of the government privatized by Trump will be seized back without compensation. We will eminent domain your ass, and change any law (or court makeup) to make it legal.
The property of the people isn’t for sale. That’s the message.
Read 4 tweets
May 3
The US saw Russia using nothing but golf carts and ladas in Ukraine and said fuck it, we're going on all in. We're cancelling all armor procurement. Battle golf carts are the future. Who needs firepower when you have bags of meat strapped to a go-cart?
Many Americans will die, and that is a sacrifice the Army is willing to make. Drive the golf cart full steam into a drone swarm. The guys in the back will have tons of ability to shoot back before they die, since there will be no walls or doors to get in the way.
All paths will be heavily mined, which is why we got rid of mraps. The mraps would just get disabled anyway, and then you'd be wishing you had a golf cart to ride. So, instead of wasting our time with armor, lets cut to the chase and deploy you on a golf cart from the start.
Read 5 tweets
May 1
Interesting uptick in Russian dive bomber drones recently. I've wondered why they were developed then suddenly disappeared. They always seemed the most effective type of drone.
Russians are using dive bombers to destroy vehicles. Much more efficient than suiciding the drone and deals the same damage.
Magyar used to use dive bombers to destroy tanks, but stopped for some reason.
Read 8 tweets

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