🇺🇦 trip @Strategic_Ark Thread 🧵 number 3 focussing on Western aid via 🇵🇱.
During our stay we spent some time at the main military aid hub operned on 27 FEB (location not disclosed here; I'll use the generic POLLOGHUB name). Some general points.
1. What the West does well:
1/7
During our stay we spent some time at the main military aid hub operned on 27 FEB (location not disclosed here; I'll use the generic POLLOGHUB name). Some general points.
1. What the West does well:
1/7
Clearly enough has been sent to support succesful defensive & now counteroffensive ops. Close to 1.1 Mt by early SEP of which ammo is a large chunk (~5000 t a day) with 3 to 14 flights a day as well as rail & road, with different mixes at the other hubs in 🇵🇱 . 2/7
The Western choice not to make NATO operationnally responsible has been wise, with an ad hoc Support Assistance Group Ukraine (SAGU) located in Wiesbaden. This enlarges the pool of donors (the 50 plus countries of the Ramstein group and in my view provides a rung in the...3/7
...escalatory ladder: putting NATO in charge would be a next step if needs.
In tonnage terms of deliveries thru POLLOGHUB, the 🇺🇸 is 49% of the total, with 🇵🇱 at 22%, 🇩🇪 at 9%, 🇮🇹 at ~3%, & 🇫🇷 number 9 with 1400 t at less than 2%. These are all real deliveries 4/7
In tonnage terms of deliveries thru POLLOGHUB, the 🇺🇸 is 49% of the total, with 🇵🇱 at 22%, 🇩🇪 at 9%, 🇮🇹 at ~3%, & 🇫🇷 number 9 with 1400 t at less than 2%. These are all real deliveries 4/7
Without going into detail, the syst for dispatching deliveries to 🇺🇦 is smart. POLLOGHUB also benefits from air and missile defences the likes of which I have never seen even in the Gulf. A hard target...and a model of what air defences in 🇺🇦 could look like 5/7
2. More needs to be done however.
For ammunition-greedy counteroffensive ops to become the norm, the rates of delivery will have to increase. POLLOGHUB has ~40% spare capacity. It didn't look exactly like the Berlin airlift when were there. As I learned at different times... 6/7
For ammunition-greedy counteroffensive ops to become the norm, the rates of delivery will have to increase. POLLOGHUB has ~40% spare capacity. It didn't look exactly like the Berlin airlift when were there. As I learned at different times... 6/7
...of our trip in 🇺🇦, sources aren't sufficiently tapped, eg 🇧🇬 (with its Soviet era legacy kit), non-Western partners (see my thread of the previous day) & 🇰🇷 with its ample stockpiles but apparently careful not to upset the activities of some of its chaebols in 🇷🇺 7/7
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