🧵It's clear were in the 'trough' part of COVID-19 activity now, with fewer cases and hospitalisations than we've seen for months. That's very welcome, of course. It may also be that the coming wave is lower and slower than the waves we've seen in 2022, for different reasons. 1/5
Most previous waves have been driven predominantly by new variants of concern. The coming 'wave' - if that's the term - may be driven more by the waning hybrid immunity (recent infection + vaccination) than by any particular variant. Make no mistake, the variants will come. 2/5
...but BA 2.75 and BA 4.6 are not strongly out-competing our current BA4/5 VoCs. So that may mean a peak closer to the end of the year. We never know what's around the corner, however, and BA2.75.2 is causing concern in immunological circles, for good reason; immune evasion. 3/5
So peaks and troughs will continue and we therefore have to focus on the key protections that can mitigate their impact. There's a legitimate debate about what potential impact protections have and what's reasonable to take up or prioritise. 4/5
What shouldn't be in dispute is that 50 COVID deaths in Australia a day is huge as a cause. And that Long COVID is emerging as a v. significant ongoing burden of illness for thousands & thousands of people. So we need to focus on doing everything reasonable to address this. End
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