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Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
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Sep 18 • 18 tweets • 6 min read
Sunday Update, a week of consolidation and one assumes preparation for Ukraine, while Russia seems to be deciding where it will try and hold a line. After the great change of the first ten days of September, things havent moved so much, but things are definitely happening.
Over the past week there was little dramatic change in the line. This moving map will give you an idea of the change from the Feb 24 invasion to today.
Though there are a few things that seem to be happening all up and down the line. On the Kherson end, there are some indications that the Russians might be preparing to pull some/all of their forces to the east bank of the Dnipro.
Now Ukraine has not made many huge advances in Kherson this week, though their plan seems to be to attrit Russian forces there rather than risk their own too aggressively. So in many ways it suits Ukrainian purposes for the Russians to stay on the west bank and try and hold on.
If the Russians pull out it would mean abandoning Kherson city, a political blow for Putin, but it would make it easier for them to draw a defensible line. They could use the river to their advantage. I did a basic map of this in last weekend's update.
On the other end of the line, Kharkiv oblast, there was small, but important changes. It seemed last week that the Russians might try and hold the Ukrainians at the Oskil River. While the Russians still hold much of that front, the Ukrainians have crossed.
@TheStudyofWar also believes it will be difficult for the Russians to hold the Ukrainians back as the Oskil.
The situation here should develop more clearly in the next week or two. Ukrainian advances have necessitated a pause for their troops to rest and resupply, and lay down new logistic systems. Ukr early advances were so quick and far, that their forces would have become spread out.
btw, we are getting some excellent Ukrainian analysis of the Battle of Kharkiv, retweeting it here, because they can tell you in more and better detail than I what might be happening.
and this by @Andriypzag
Just a guess, but if the Russians try to hold the Oskil, without sending more forces, it will tax them. The only problem is that if they abandon the Oskil, they are basically abandoning Lyman and those logistic lines.
Interesting thread which highlights the rail lines Russia will need to hold to supply Lyman. If the Ukrainians cross the Oskil in depth, the Russians could have to fall back a longer way.
I tried to assume a natural stop point for the Russians in that map shown earlier--but tbh Russian war fighting in Ukraine has never seemed to be particularly rational or thought out--so will be interesting to see what they do.
For lack of Russian sense--though their attacks have mostly stopped now. They seem to be plugging away still trying to take Bakhmut, which they have been continually assaulting at great cost for months and months. adapted @War_Mapper map
Bakhmut is 15 miles or so from Popasna (remember the great Popasna breakthrough of mid May), but the Russians still havent reached it--though try and advance towards it a number of times every week. It seems political--like Putin has given the order to take it...
The result is just continual loss for Russia. Its typical of how they have waged this war. So overall not alot of change in the week, but action might pick up soon once the Ukrainians regroup. One thing to consider, is that future advances might be more difficult for Ukr
Its unlikely they will find an area as thinly defended as Kharkiv Oblast was by the Russians. And since Ukr doesnt like to sacrifice their soldiers, its more likely they will try to attrit down an area to attack before taking a big risk.
Speaking about the Russians having difficulty sending troops to hold a new defensive line...

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More from @PhillipsPOBrien

Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Sep 14
Excellent, we are starting to get the Ukrainian analysis of the Kharkiv operation (actually linked Kherson-Kharkiv operations), and its important to pay alot of attention. The Ukrainian position has been often overlooked in western reporting (to its great detriment).
Unlike western reports over the summer, for instance, the Ukrainians had a much better understanding of how the fighting was progressing, why the war was still trending in Ukraine's direction, and they were not deceived by the Russian Army's unthinking ability to blow stuff up.
First we have this detailed report by @IAPonomarenko (the most important military reporter of this war). kyivindependent.com/national/with-…
Read 12 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Sep 13
A number of really important points being made here. In 2021 much was made about how Russian maneuvers in Zapad 2021 were a confirmation of the improvement in their capabilities. Yet, we can see now, they were able to do very little in the real world that they claimed...
to do in the manuevers. It was a general analytical failing in the estimate given by many, taking Russian claims too much at face value. Military maneuvers are often deeply deceptive. Mussolini regularly used them to make it seem his army was more capable.
In the case of Russia-Ukraine, its worth noting that it was the Ukrainians who have been able to pull off the greater combined arms operations, though the concentration before the war was almost all on the Russians.
Read 4 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Sep 12
This is a rather extraordinary claim that is being made today by the Ukrainians and some western intelligence--that Russia, in the midst of the Kharkiv collapse, has ceased sending reinforcements to its struggling army in Ukraine.
The @GeneralStaffUA update this evening provides some details. Basically they cant convince the troops to go (longer paragraph in center). A combination of soldiers hearing about all the deaths, the terrible treatment of wounded, etc
Ukraine will want to take advantage of this, because if it continues there should be other failures on the Russian line. Hard to see how they rebuild the new line in Kharkiv along the Oskil River, for instance, with the rag-tag group left over from the past 10 days.
Read 5 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Sep 11
Sunday Update. The Line finally moved and it was meaningful. The Ukrainian victory that was many months in the making.
Did you hear there was a little breakthrough and exploitation in Kharkiv Oblast by the Ukrainians during the past week?
As Im sure youve seen, the Ukrainians have liberated more territory in a few days than Russia had seized since April 19 (start of the Battle of the Donbas. It seemed sudden and stunning, but it wasnt. It was the result of patient and methodical Ukrainian strategy and planning.
Read 20 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Sep 11
All these stories of Russian retreat and panicked evacuation will make things far worse for the Russia army. How will it draw a new line of resistance with too few troops and a crazy misshapen area to try and hold. The line was already too long, and now might be longer.
Right now one of the biggest problems tne Ukrainians are going to have is dealing with their own logistics As their forces have to try and cover an increasingly wide area that the Russians are abandoning. It won’t be easy to keep track of everything
Though one advantage the Ukrainians will have is that once the Russians leave, the local population should be able to seize control of governmental infrastructure by themselves.
Read 4 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Sep 10
This argument is going to run and run and we won’t settle it here, but such small number of tanks used by the Ukrainians against a weak Russian force does not make a convincing case that the tank is a high priority system. More the opposite imho. Russians had more tanks it seems
Quick question. Are there any videos of Ukrainian tanks actually taking part in these fast advances of the last few days. Ive heard of 15 tanks in the story above. All the videos Ive seen are of light vehicles and APCs. Are there pictures or stories of...
Ukr tanks being particularly decisive. Otoh, Ive numerous pictures of destroyed or abandoned Russian tanks. Might it be that one of the reasons the Ukrainians have moved so quickly is that they are only using small numbers of tanks?
Read 8 tweets

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