Thread by @warnerta

I see one answer to two puzzles about the recent course of this war. Why did Russia leave Kharkiv oblast so exposed? And why is Russia now focusing on tiny gains in Bakhmut while weakly countering Ukraine's preparations for another NE offensive? In short: Potemkin syndrome.🧵

Russia didn't just fail to react to Ukraine's build-up in Kharkiv. @DefMon3 has compiled evidence that Russia was drawing down troop levels in the region, leading him to suggest that Russia might have been attacked while already planning a withdrawal. /2

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1570885841899364353

But a planned withdrawal would make no sense: the section of Kharkiv oblast that Ukraine liberated included the Russian occupants' main northern rail and road supply arteries, both via Kupyansk. /3

Russia's relentless, dense shelling all along the arc from Izyum to Avdiyivka, all summer, makes it clear enough that Russia intended to grab all the territory within that arc. And it was still trying, even as the Kharkiv offensive got underway, as seen on Sep. 6's liveuamap. /4

ISW wrote recently on more recent similar behavior: Russia's continues to focus its energies on making incremental gains towards Bakhmut, while not much resisting Ukraine's crossing of the Oskil in preparation for another NE offensive. /5

https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1571319365076938752

Everyone's probably familiar enough with the "Potemkin village" story to know what I mean by "Potemkin syndrome." Historians think the story's exaggerated, but it no doubt captured something real about Russia that's still true today. /6
observers.france24.com/en/20131211-pu…

"Potemkin syndrome" can be broadly defined as doing work solely to give the appearance of having done something useful. From Czarist times to the present day the syndrome has pervaded Russian society, from small-time local affairs to the highest level of the ruler's court. /7

For Russia's military brass, the way to demonstrate that they have done useful work is to seize territory. So they manage the war in such a way that on most days, they can report to their ruler and on TV about the territory they have gained. /8

If they had to draw forces from behind the front to keep the front supplied, manned and going forward, who would rebuke them? To someone not wise enough to scratch the surface, day after day of small territorial gains by any means looks like winning. /9

https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1564408136378843136

Naturally this strategy suffers collapses: of Russia's Kyiv, Sumy and Chernihiv offensives in April, of its occupation of eastern Kharkiv oblast this month. But somehow these collapses don't lead to any change in approach. If I figure out why not, I'll let you know. /10 end