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https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1582434857761718273With the bridge over the Kerch Strait indefinitely unusable for trucks and trains, Russia's supply lines to southern Ukraine have been severely constricted. For supply by rail Russia now controls only one crucial line into south Ukraine.
https://twitter.com/warnerta/status/1574097612613066753This Sep. 29 Russian map (t.me/rybar/39542) is about right, if one reads the striped area meant to be contested land as mostly Ukraine-controlled. In a nutshell, two Ukrainian forces broke through Russian lines north and east of Lyman, and by today they had nearly met.
https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1570885841899364353
https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1570603753446969345By one account, the Ukrainian army has crossed the Oskil and emplaced artillery at Hryanykivka, about 25km SW from where the Oskil enters Ukraine from Russia. If true this is either very bold, or Russian forces in the NE remain very weak.
https://twitter.com/warnerta/status/1533618239363751942In June, my point was that Russia knew its offensive capacity was dwindling, so its targets were chosen to improve defensibility. Taking Ukraine-held pockets NE of the Donets would turn the river into a defensive barrier, and taking the Lysychansk area would shorten the front. /2
https://twitter.com/Orion__int/status/1542571229273821184
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1539689831311331328