$EXO is trading almost 50% below its NAV (close to 100% upside). I discuss what the market may be getting wrong about the company and why I disagree and continue to hold the stock. 1/7
Exor's market cap is €14.7bn, of which net cash is €5.1bn. This leaves €9.6bn for the value of all businesses in its portfolio. Note that just Exor's stake in Ferrari is worth €8.7bn, which implies that the market is valuing all other assets almost at zero. 2/7
At the current price of €65, you only pay for a 24.2% stake in Ferrari (€37.8), net cash (€22.2), Seeds and Other minor investments. All other businesses come on top of this for free (14% stake in Stellantis worth €25.9, 26.9% interest in CNH - €19.6 and many more). 3/7
The market may be concerned by Exor’s too high exposure to Europe, cyclical sectors, as well as several unpleasant surprises and lack of ‘exciting news’.
I think limited research coverage and moderate liquidity of its stock are two more reasons for the discount. 4/7
I disagree with the market as Europe accounts for less than a third of the NAV and cash + Ferrari make its exposure to cyclicals much less significant. 5/7
Why I continue to hold the stock: 1. It is very cheap 2. It has a strong capital allocation track record 3. Alignment of interests among key stakeholders 4. So much pessimism around Europe and Macro (cyclicals) make them quite interesting from a contrarian point of view. 6/7
Enjoyed the latest podcast by William Green (@williamgreen72) with Tom Russo.
Apart from the concepts of ‘capacity to suffer’ and ‘capacity to reinvest’, I thought his thesis on exiting $MO and latest thoughts on $BABA were quite instructive. 📝👇 1/10
1 | They decided to sell Altria after the company made 2 acquisitions of JUUL and Cronos, collectively destroying $46bn.“If you thought about the macro risks you’re picking up by making those moves as they did, it was in some ways a form of suicidal psychology in some sort.” 2/10
2 | Tom also discussed how Bill Ruane was extremely disciplined when he had to exit stocks whose investment thesis changed. “He didn’t fall prey to this unbelievably typical feeling in Wall Street, which is to say, “Yeah, it’s true, it’s impaired. 3/10
A great conversation with the author of Outsiders, William Thorndike, hosted by @patrick_oshag. Highly recommend it to anyone focused on long-term compounders. Will is also a chairman of $CNX which he also mentions in the podcast. My takeaways below 📝👇 1/11
1 | Most important indicator - Quality of Revenue. “If a company has 2% customer churn that's a very powerful indicator.” Look for reasons for this stickiness. “A lot of positive economic attributes tend to correlate with those revenue profiles (relatively simple operations, 2/11
pricing power, a high degree of capital efficiency).
2 | “Capital efficiency is a measure of the cash generated by a business relative to the tangible assets deployed in that business over time. We look at EBITA, assuming DD&A equals CapEx. We also deduct tax”. 3/11
Having listened to Prof Damodaran on a William Green podcast I didn’t rush to listen his conversation with Patrick (@patrick_oshag). Was positively surprised to hear much more new stuff and ideas. Here are my notes 📝 👇
1/ On inflation - it is not an absolute level but the level of surprise that matters. Generally inflation is bad for asset prices, few businesses can do well in such an environment. Avoid companies that rely on discretionary demand. Subscription, platform-type companies
are better positioned to pass on inflation. Most FAANG stocks have these qualities, just like consumer franchise companies in the 1970s. Real estate generally hold up value better than financial assets.
2/ Don’t rely too much on ROIC metric, you would end up with many old and
My summer reading list. The books are on the topics I am mostly interested in at the moment (Decision making, Great businesses, Energy). Would appreciate any feedback.
1/ (Mis)Behaviour of Markets by Benoit Mandelbrot
2/ Perfectly Confident by Don Moore
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3/ Misbehaving by Richard Thaler
4/ How to Make the World Add Up by Tim Harford
5/ What Investors Really Want by Meir Statman
6/ Taming the Markets by Ashvin Chhabra
Jim Collins books: 7/ Good to Great 8/ Built to Last 9/ Great by Choice 10/ How the Mighty Fall
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11/ Lessons from Century Club Companies by Vicki TenHaken
12/ Intelligent Fanatics by Ian Cassel
13/ The Nature of Technology by Brian Arthur
Books on Energy: 14/ The Bottomless Well by Peter Huber
An insightful conversation with Ashvin Chhabra by Tano Santos, finance professor at the Columbia Business School, and a legendary Michael Mauboussin (@mjmauboussin).
1 | Investing is not about markets, it is about you. What goals you are trying to achieve.
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2 | Three type of goals: must-have - (financial security), nice-to-have (a certain level of income at retirement) and aspirational goals (what you want to do in life).
3 | Most successful people generate wealth at the interception of expertise, passion, luck with
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the help of non-recourse debt. They concentrate in one area of life. Concentration and non-recourse leverage is the ultimate engine of wealth generation.
4 | Some non-financial types of risks:
- Risk of not meeting your essential goals
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Just finished going through my notes from the London Value Investor Conference. Here are some of my takeaways:
1 | The two recurring themes were structurally higher inflation and rising commodity prices (quite unusual for a value conference).
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2 | Lower labour participation, de-globalisation and under-investment in commodities/energy transition were mentioned as structural factors.
3 | David Iben from Kopernik Global Investors covered the widest amount of ideas. The two most interesting were:
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3.A | Dont try to blindly copy Warren Buffett, he invests in all types of businesses and asset classes, despite his praise for quality businesses. The following slide was spot on: