Alexander Baunov Profile picture
Sep 19 10 tweets 3 min read
THREAD 1/10 Alla #Pugacheva, Russia’s biggest pop star for many generations, has spoken out against Putin’s war in Ukraine. She also spoke in defense of her husband, the comedian & actor Maxim Galkin, who was labeled a foreign agent on Friday after previously condemning the war. Image
2/10 Pugacheva and Galkin left Russia soon after its invasion of Ukraine. Galkin, an immensely popular TV star and household name, was instantly critical of the war, but Pugacheva, who is considerably older than her husband, was less vocal, though their departure spoke volumes.
3/10 Her return to Russia a few days ago prompted speculations that she had come back to salvage her property & high position within the Russian elite. Instead, a few days after her return, Pugacheva wrote a short but very harsh Instagram post about the “special operation.”
4/10 The post, which contravenes several newly introduced and unlawful pieces of legislation that Russia has introduced since the start of the war, can be seen here: 
instagram.com/p/CipbuA9qzIe/…
5/10 Pugacheva’s popularity is absolutely extraordinary, comparable perhaps with that of Edith Piaf in France, only a couple of decades later. Boris Yeltsin, when decorating her with a state order, said that he would be remembered a Pugacheva-era president. Image
6/10 From the mid-70s & for 30 years or even more, she was the unchallenged queen of pop for all Russians & citizens of former Soviet republics. She has had dozens of hits, is never far from the Russian tabloids, & no New Year party was complete without at least one of her songs. Image
7/10 From the very beginning, her attitude challenged the official ways of the stuffy Soviet music scene, known as estrada. She was far more sincere, flamboyant, and of course talented. Now she is openly against the war, xenophobia, & the absurd foreign agent laws. Image
8/10 It’s another blow—& maybe the strongest yet—against the official Russian narrative that ordinary Russians support the war, & only a few Westernized & unpatriotic intellectuals oppose it. But no one represents ordinary Russian people better than Alla Pugacheva & Maxim Galkin.
9/10 The reaction of Russian officials is predictable: “The people are with us, and those who are not with us are against the people.” It’s classic fraudulent propaganda that won’t convince everybody.
10/10 Now it’s not just Ukraine that has a comedian/actor of major political importance. Russia has one too, plus a music legend with a following of multiple generations of Russians to boot.

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More from @baunov

Sep 20
THREAD 1/9 Today, with no warning, amendments to Russian law were introduced to the Duma & immediately passed in 3 readings. They bring Russia much closer to full mobilization & stipulate harsh penalties for failing to report for military duty, surrendering, or refusal to fight.
2/9 Taken together with demands for “immediate,”—maybe even online—referendums in all parts of occupied Ukrainian territory on becoming part of Russia, the message is clear.
3/9 That message is: “You chose to fight us in Ukraine, now try to fight us in Russia itself, or, to be precise, what we call Russia.” The hope is that the West will baulk at this.
Read 9 tweets
Sep 17
THREAD 1/6 Ukraine’s successful counteroffensive is having multiple political effects. Here are four of them:

i) Moscow has postponed referenda on occupied Ukrainian territory becoming part of Russia.
2/6 It’s one thing to lose a piece of hostile territory, and quite another to lose a piece of territory officially proclaimed as part of Russia. That would be a terrible blow to the Kremlin’s prestige.
3/6 ii) Russia’s retreat will deter Ukrainian collaborators. Those with pro-Russian sympathies will be far more wary of showing them, accepting Russian passports & joining Russian administrations etc. That will make it harder for Moscow to govern the occupied territory.
Read 6 tweets
Aug 29
THREAD 1/12 With the outbreak of the war, three social groups took shape. First, there are the declared opponents of the war. This attitude can be expressed above all by those who can afford to leave Russia, but the aversion to the war is no less among many who have stayed
2/12 On the other hand, there are those who simply adapt to life under the new conditions, who try to block out the war, so to speak, in order to preserve as much as possible, the normality of the past bit.ly/3Ayx21n
3/12 Finally, there are those who think that the war must transform the entire Russian society —  that the Russians should become a mobilized nation, and that the war should completely transform not only the economic order and its elite, but also the structure of everyday life.
Read 12 tweets
Aug 16
THREAD 1/7 My 2-hour interview with @yurydud in Athens now has English subtitles. And 6,8 million viewers
A few more thoughts from that interview here:
2/7 On Putin’s popularity in some countries, including Greece: It’s not Putin’s body or brain that’s popular. It’s his function of opposing the West that is popular in the rest of the non-Western world—or the world that for different reasons dislikes America.
3/7 If you ask the Chinese, Indians, Arabs, even many Eastern Europeans, “Do you want a leader like Putin?” They say “yes.” But if you ask them “Do you want to live in Russia? Would you move there?” The answer is “No.”
Read 7 tweets
Aug 8
THREAD 1/14 The interview with Yuri Dud @yurydud has exceeded 5,4 millions of viewers in just 4 days . Yuri is a genius. But the questions raised in our conversation obviously concern the Russian-speaking audience
2/14 The subtitles are nit ready, but here @neverscaredb has voluntarily translated some points of it into English Below I quote his tweets with gratitude
3/14 Why Russia has no vaccine against autocracy?

• we thought a long period of authoritarianism is a “vaccination” against it – in case with Russia it turned out to be the intoxication

• people after those periods come out with a defeated will to debate
Read 19 tweets
Jul 25
THREAD 1/10 Significant exemptions from the sanctions regime, which Russia received in exchange for a deal, allow it to take advantage of high prices on the world market and to realize its own record harvest, and close to the Kremlin agro-holdings - not to lose export revenue.
2/10 We are talking about quite significant amounts. In 2021 grain supplies abroad brought Russia $11 billion, a year earlier - $10 billion. bit.ly/3b7vR0b
3/10 The largest Russian agrarians are closely connected with the authorities, and the development of the sector is overseen by Minister Dmitry Patrushev - the eldest son of Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev.
Read 10 tweets

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