You cannot understate the operational-strategic level importance of this Ukrainian lodgement.🧵
There is no natural defensive line for Ukraine's next offensive in the N East
The only defensive line left for the Russians in Northern Donbass is the 23 Feb 2022 LPR trench lines
1/
There is no natural defensive line for Ukraine's next offensive in the N East
The only defensive line left for the Russians in Northern Donbass is the 23 Feb 2022 LPR trench lines
1/
https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1570820805633904642
Once Ukraine restores the rail bridge over the Oskil River.
It has rail logistics to move artillery shells for its next Donbass offensive.
And Ukraine has stocks of prefabricated concrete structures.
2/
It has rail logistics to move artillery shells for its next Donbass offensive.
And Ukraine has stocks of prefabricated concrete structures.
2/
I've talked about the importance of prefabricated concrete structures for the Russo-Ukrainian War repeatedly on Twitter.
It is an area of the war the OSINT types on Twitter don't think is important.🤦♂️
There is more to war than fighting.
3/
It is an area of the war the OSINT types on Twitter don't think is important.🤦♂️
There is more to war than fighting.
3/
https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1532514287264071683
I was looking for prefabricated concrete structures in this latest Russian invasion build up in December 2021 right up to the day it kicked off.
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4/
https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1512795382090280970
This is my 22 Feb 2022 post about what a real invasion of Ukraine should have had and what Putin's Special Operation final truck logistical train did not.
5/
5/
https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1496314867527163912
The CIA, NSA, US DoD military intelligence didn't pay a bit of attention to this lack because they were listening to Russian self-deception about Ukraine falling in 72-to-96 hours on the compromised Russian Army Azart radio networks...
...and believed it.🤦♂️🤦♀️🤦
6/
...and believed it.🤦♂️🤦♀️🤦
6/
The shear economic power that prefabricated concrete structures represents is little understood outside the construction trades.
It certainly isn't at the high levels of US 3-letter national security agencies.
Sometimes pictures can do it justice.
7/
It certainly isn't at the high levels of US 3-letter national security agencies.
Sometimes pictures can do it justice.
7/
https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1512795403204415503
Russia's Kleptocratic state is deeply handicapped by its inability to use prefabricated concrete outside of prestige projects like the Kerch bridge.
8/
8/
https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1512795414344486917
Given the Russian guided missile expenditures to date, Ukraine is now in a position to throw up railway infrastructure faster than Russian can knock it down thanks to prefabricated concrete structure it has or can obtain by rail from the EU.
9/
9/
It also underscores why those arguing that ATACMS should be denied to Ukraine are utterly wrong, and get an "F for failure" on the subject of Prefabricated Concrete Structure Logistics.
Russia's Kleptocracy has hollowed out the civil engineering capability of its economy.
10/
Russia's Kleptocracy has hollowed out the civil engineering capability of its economy.
10/
Russia's lack of civil engineering repair capability w/o prefabricated concrete structure means an ATACMS will do far more lasting damage to key concrete infrastructure like the Kerch bridge.
And ATACMS is really hard to knock down, see below.👇
11/
And ATACMS is really hard to knock down, see below.👇
11/
https://twitter.com/MIL_STD/status/1570396769049255936
@bayraktar_1love ANTONOVSKY BRIDGE 🧵 has been utterly educational as to the limits of Russian civil engineering capabilities.
The latest ATACMS have accuracies that rival GMLRS and they come down at at least Mach 3, not Mach 2.5, massing 2x more.
12/
The latest ATACMS have accuracies that rival GMLRS and they come down at at least Mach 3, not Mach 2.5, massing 2x more.
12/
https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1562714354557997058
A "Time-on-Target" volley of eight 300km range ATACMS fired from 200km so they have a high arching trajectory over the top of most of a S-400 missile engagement envelope, descending in a pre-planned 'snake dance' onto the same Kerch Bridge railway GPS coordinate...
13/
13/
...will render that section of the Kerch Bridge structurally unsound for the weight of a Russian Army logistics train.
And the reason I'm advocating the high attack profile is the altitude range scale tops out at less than 20 n. miles.
The defending SAM's would get one
14/
And the reason I'm advocating the high attack profile is the altitude range scale tops out at less than 20 n. miles.
The defending SAM's would get one
14/
...and only one engagement.
The reason for eight is any single Russian S-300 or S-400 SAM battery fire control radar can handle a maximum of six targets simultaneously, PESA radar limitations.
Russian SAM C3I coordination under pressure has been less than impressive
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The reason for eight is any single Russian S-300 or S-400 SAM battery fire control radar can handle a maximum of six targets simultaneously, PESA radar limitations.
Russian SAM C3I coordination under pressure has been less than impressive
15/
...in the war thus far.
It was in part due to knowledge of the good Ukrainian & P--s poor Russian Prefabricated Concrete Structure Logistics involved in the Russo-Ukrainian War that I wrote my earlier thread on the Ukrainian "Left Wheel" strategic offensive.
16/
It was in part due to knowledge of the good Ukrainian & P--s poor Russian Prefabricated Concrete Structure Logistics involved in the Russo-Ukrainian War that I wrote my earlier thread on the Ukrainian "Left Wheel" strategic offensive.
16/
The capture of huge stocks of Russian shells has put 500 or so Ukrainian artillery tubes silenced by shell shortages in May 2022 back on the war's 'game board' for Ukraine's next offensive.
Ukraine now has fire support parity in Donbass.
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Ukraine now has fire support parity in Donbass.
17/
All people opposing Ukraine getting ATACMS, F-16's, M-1 Abrams Tanks, and M-2 Bradley fighting vehicles are doing is delaying Russian defeat while increasing the Ukrainian casualties for no good reason and many bad ones.
It makes no sense to me & hurts the USA
18/
It makes no sense to me & hurts the USA
18/
...because it will drive Ukraine away from us in the years to come.
P.S.
H/T to the creator of that 'Left Wheel' strategic offensive map.
19/19 end
P.S.
H/T to the creator of that 'Left Wheel' strategic offensive map.
19/19 end
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