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Lance Lambert

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Sep 20 • 5 tweets • 1 min read

#NEW Boise becomes the first major U.S. housing market to post a negative YoY home price reading.

As measured by the Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI).

Simply put: The housing correction has already wiped out a year of Pandemic Housing Boom gains in Boise.

I view Boise as a housing bust.

https://twitter.com/NewsLambert/status/1565894120173961216?s=20&t=C-eNIyiLJiqr0mSMGNPBEg

Boise—unlike places like Phoenix—was already losing steam heading into 2022. That's one reason it hit its negative YoY so fast.

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More from @NewsLambert

Lance Lambert

@NewsLambert

Sep 20

Here's the home price correction.

It's sharpest out West. It's also starting to spread East. fortune.com/2022/09/20/hom…

Between May 2022 and August 2022, home values are down...

10.59% in San Jose.
7.8% in San Francisco.
7.36% in Austin.
7.09% in Salt Lake City.

Boise stands alone...for now.

Year-over-year change in home values 👇

Read 5 tweets

Lance Lambert

@NewsLambert

Sep 20

IF home values stop falling in San Francisco, it'll hit a negative YoY reading in December.

IF values keep falling, San Francisco will hit it well before December.

IF home values stop falling in Denver, it'll hit a negative YoY reading in March 2023.

IF values keep falling, Denver will hit it well before March 2023.

IF home values stop falling in Seattle, it'll hit a negative YoY reading in Feb 2023.

IF values keep falling, Seattle will hit it well before Feb 2023.

Read 8 tweets

Lance Lambert

@NewsLambert

Sep 17

When central banks move from easing to tightening, there's going to be an impact on a rate sensitive sector like housing.

That "impact" is going to happen even under normal circumstances.

But here's the thing: These aren't normal circumstances.

Read 4 tweets

Lance Lambert

@NewsLambert

Sep 4

When I write the "U.S. housing market" or "U.S. home prices", I'm talking about an aggregated view of the country.

I'm not talking about your house.

Your market and neighborhood—hell, even your street—will vary significantly from that national aggregation.

Nationally, we've seen the U.S. housing market flip into a sharp *activity* slowdown.

You'll get that when mortgage rates spike 3 percentage points in just 6 months. Thats the biggest spike since 1981.

U.S. new home sales are DOWN 29.6% on a year-over-year basis.

U.S. existing home sales are DOWN 20.2% YoY.

U.S. housing starts are DOWN 8% YoY

U.S. single-family starts are DOWN 18.5% YoY

U.S. inventory is UP 25% YoY

Read 4 tweets