Lance Lambert Profile picture
@ResidentialClub co-founder and editor. Analyzing the U.S. housing market. Subscribe to the FREE daily newsletter at the link below 👇
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Nov 5 14 tweets 3 min read
The mortgage market is experiencing a severe recession.

It's one of the worst downturns in mortgage market history.

Traditional refi is RIP right now.

And this week, mortgage purchase apps hit the lowest level of the post 1995 era.

Thread 🧵 Image Layoffs (and mergers) are mounting in the mortgage industry.

Just ask @mortgagetruth.

Back in Feb. 2007, he started tracking mortgage layoffs and closures. He's back at it this cycle... and the list is growing—fast.…
Oct 26 9 tweets 4 min read
Meet the epicenter of institutional home buying 🏡👇


While institutional firms own 0.73% of the U.S. single-family stock, they own 4.4% in Atlanta, finds @ParclLabs…
Image According to @ParclLabs, 36.8% of all institutional-owned homes can be found in just 6 markets: Atlanta (where 13.3% of institutional-owned homes can be found), Phoenix (5.4%), Dallas (5.4%), Houston (4.3%), Tampa (4.2%) and Charlotte (4.2%)…
Sep 9 24 tweets 7 min read
Austin home prices have further to fall

During the '00s crash, it took Austin 30 months to fall 6.7% peak-to-trough

This time around, Austin has fallen 11% in just 14 months

How did Austin—which dodged the worst of the 08 crash—become the epicenter of the pandemic correction? Image Among the 385 major housing markets tracked by Freddie Mac, only 35 markets are still down +3.00% from their pandemic peak.

Austin is down the most (-11%)

Keep in mind, that national home prices, as tracked by the Freddie Mac House Price Index, set a new all-time high in July. Image
Sep 5 87 tweets 24 min read
Inventory drop day 🏡📊

These are markets you all requested yesterday (I'm done taking requests).

Let's start with the nation's largest housing market: New York. Image Inventory in L.A. Image
Sep 3 5 tweets 2 min read
The U.S. housing market isn't just bifurcated by region.

It's also bifurcated within regional markets.

Just look at San Jose, where "upper price tier" homes are down 9.05% from peak while "lower price tier" homes just set a new all-time high in July 2023. Image As mortgage rates spike/housing affordability deteriorates, buyers lower their expectations thus keeping the bottom half of the market warmer than the top half. Image
Aug 24 13 tweets 4 min read
In March 2022, Zillow predicted that the biggest U.S. home price uptick still awaited, and that by February 2023 prices would be up another 17.8%.

At the same time, Zillow was offloading its remaining "flips" in overheated markets at peak prices. Image Even as the mortgage rate shock was clearly manifesting, Zillow argued in spring 2022 that home price appreciation had a lot of gas left in the tank & wasn't normalizing. Image
Aug 15 5 tweets 1 min read
The Pandemic Housing Boom saw U.S. home prices jump over 40% in just over 2 years.

It takes time for property taxes to catch up. But it’s coming.

Look no further than Butler County, Ohio where residents are staring down a very big property tax hike.… Local officials realize this is politically dangerous for them.

In the article above, Butler County OH officials are scrambling to see if they can do anything to lighten the looming property tax hikes.
Jul 27 5 tweets 1 min read
#NEW Invitation Homes—the largest owner of U.S. single-family rental homes—was a net seller for the third straight quarter.

It sold off more homes (378 homes) than it acquired (276 homes) in Q2 2023. Image That said, it's likely that Invitation Homes will be a net buyer again—at least for the third quarter of 2023.
Jul 10 6 tweets 1 min read
The historic deterioration in housing market affordability, as told by one chart.

It was a one two punch: Overheated house price growth (March '20 to June '22) followed by last year's mortgage rate shock (going from 3% to 7%) If you're on Meta's new site, you can find me at "newslambert"
Jul 1 9 tweets 3 min read
The CEO of Fortune 500 homebuilder D.R. Horton reveals how he cornered the housing market amid a historic affordability squeeze.

Here's my Q&A with @DRHorton CEO David Auld.… Despite the mortgage rate shock, @DRHorton just moved up to its highest ever ranking on the Fortune 500 list (No. 120).

via @FortuneMagazine
Jun 13 9 tweets 3 min read
Starwood to sell off 2,000 single-family rentals.

via @pat_clark… 3 things.
Jun 13 4 tweets 1 min read
Since June 2009, the U.S. economy has only been in recession for a total of 3 months Feb. 2020 to April 2020
Jun 13 4 tweets 1 min read
Last year's mortgage rate shock saw national inventory levels (i.e. active listings) briefly rise as demand pulled back & homes sat on the market longer.

"Briefly" is the key word.

Soon, national inventory will once again be negative on a year-over-year basis. Image Back in February, 190 of the nation's 200 largest markets were up year-over-year for inventory.

By May, that was down to 134 markets.

That figure will free fall this summer (despite seasonality pushing inventory higher)
Jun 3 11 tweets 4 min read
The most interesting housing market in America: Austin.

During the '00s housing crash, it took Austin 43 months to fall 8.5% peak-to-trough.

This time around, Austin has fallen 10.02% in just 9 months.… Image Among the nation's 400 largest housing markets, 226 just hit (or re hit) their all-time high for home price in April 2023.

Among the other 174 markets, 38% are down by 5.00% or more.

Austin (-10.02%) is down the most.…
Jun 2 4 tweets 1 min read
The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate heads into the weekend at 6.88%.

Spread: 321 bps Image Two things.

1. With the debt ceiling drama over, the spread has come down from last week's peak of 333 bps.

2. We've been over 6.70% mortgage rates* for about 3 full weeks. Like @LoganMohtashami says, duration matters.
Jun 1 4 tweets 2 min read
Relative to the past decade, 2023 mortgage borrowers are stretching themselves thin. Image It's true that mortgage borrowers at large are doing well (see below).

It's also true that spiked mortgage rates (following a historic run up in prices) means some new borrowers are getting stretched. Image
Jun 1 6 tweets 1 min read
We've went 9 straight months without setting an all-time high (ATH) for U.S. home prices.

IF seasonally adjusted prices, as measured by Case-Shiller, keep rising at March's pace (+0.42%), we'd set a new ATH once the September 2023 reading publishes. Image IF that happened, the streak (of months without an ATH Case-Shiller) would top out at 15 months this cycle.

The early '90s correction made it 37 months, and the '00s crash went 116 months.
May 16 6 tweets 2 min read
After peaking in May 1990, national home prices didn't set another all-time high until 37 months later in July 1993.

So far, the pandemic housing correction has seen us go 8 months since setting our last national all-time high (June '22). Image The reason it's 8 months rather than 10 months, is because Case-Shiller runs 2 months behind. We'll get the March reading later this month.
May 15 4 tweets 2 min read
Just 16% of the nation's 200 largest housing markets saw a seasonally adjusted month-over-month home price decline in April 2023.

At the height of the housing correction, 79% of markets posted a month-over-month price decline in September 2022. Image Zoomed in, you can clearly see the home price correction continues to lose geographical reach. Image
Apr 25 4 tweets 1 min read
Do you believe U.S. housing activity has already bottomed?

(I'm asking about home sales—not home prices) Do you believe U.S. home prices have bottomed?

(For this one, I'm asking about national home prices)
Apr 25 4 tweets 1 min read
Nationally speaking, new home construction went through a sharp correction in the second half of 2022.

That improved affordability (rate buydowns & price cuts) is paying off in 2023
Nationally speaking = the national aggregate.

Some markets didn't really see a correction on the new home side in '22.