I think this discourse tends to reflect both a failure to reckon with cost-benefit analysis but also a lack of consideration as to what a the plausible role of public health expertise in a democratic society.
An example distant from infectious diseases — US public health outcomes would clearly improve if nobody in the country every drank any alcoholic beverages.
But what actual *policy recommendation* follows from that is very unclear.
We live with a quantity of cirrhosis, of drunk driving, of alcohol-fueled domestic violence and other problems that I think is much higher than it should be.
I try to convince people that we should raise alcohol taxes and try to mitigate these issues.
One reason I focus specifically on taxes is that I think the country is facing some future fiscal policy choices in which *all* the available options are politically unpalatable, so I'd like to see this particular unpalatable idea in the mix.
Biden and @ENERGY should use put options to commit to refilling the Strategic Petroleum Reserve at a relatively high price point — give domestic producers insurance against price crashes to ensure investment remains strong.
I think some in the administration underrate their own power here. America is the Saudi Arabia of oil, and if we are willing to acknowledge that this commodity remains too important to be left purely to the market we can seize pricing power from OPEC.
I'm not sure Oil Production Champion is the legacy Biden wanted for himself, but stabilizing the price of oil using the SPR can link together three pillars of his administration — full employment, the contest with Russia, and the climate transition.
An interesting change in media over the course of my career has been more interpenetration between academia and journalism, mediated first by blogs and now by twitter.
This is mostly change for the better, but I do think it features some bugs related to different values.
Pure descriptive work seems to be relatively low status in social sciences.
People do it. But the incentives point in the opposite direction and it usually isn't the most "interesting" part of high fliers' career.
By contrast, it's the traditional core of journalism.
Starting with the initial decision to invade, everything Putin has done in Ukraine has made Russia’s security situation worse and brought the country further from prosperity.
The solution is to change strategy not try harder to pummel Ukraine.
Russia has induced NATO expansion, weakened their own conventional military capabilities, and is now wrecking its reputation as a reliable source of energy and other natural resources.
Turning Ukraine into rubble won’t change any of that.
The gas weapon is helping to bring down incumbent governments in Italy and Sweden, but the new coalitions are committing to the western alliance and Putin’s old friends are distancing themselves from him because he’s toxic now.
In today’s Slow Boring I stand up for the old bipartisan comprehensive immigration reform consensus versus a new debate that’s been hijacked by extremists and derailed by the asylum debate.
— Invest in border security to reduce the flow of illegal migrants
— Increase the flow of legal migrants with more emphasis on labor market needs
— Reduce the stock of illegal residents with a pass to citizenship + focused enforcement
Same logic on asylum — we should change the law to dissuade people from making long trips to claim asylum. And if there are groups we feel sympathetic to (certainly including the Venezuelans DeSantis is kidnapping) we should make special legal provision for them.
Solar and wind are very cheap at the margin with natural gas (or hydro) backup, which makes them extremely potent decarbonization tools in a world where electrification of transportation and home heat are raising electricity demand.
One takeaway from this is that at the current margin, natural gas is pretty green. When Russia adopted a “keep it in the ground” approach to their gas, EU emissions went up not down and there are valuable lessons here.
But if you want to get to net zero then you either need to have a ton of hydro power available (Norway, Switzerland, Canada) or else you’re relying on some additional technology.
I think Nuclear is a very plausible candidate here.
In general, I think there's a bad bias toward discussing novel or interesting explanations of things rather than just repeating boring ones.
It's why trolling can be a valuable skill — the world needs people who can attract attention to boring ideas.
Like I think if you were to pitch an op-ed with the thesis "abortion politics reflects a lot of sincere disagreement about hard-to-resolve theological issues" that editors wouldn't find it very interesting. But it's clearly true!