The much delayed Putin TV address is here. Live tweeted summary is below 🧵
Talking about the necessary steps to preserve Russia and the right of self determination
Talking about the West pursuit of 'pseudo-values'
The West wants to breakup Russia
Long list of grievances... NATO coming to Russia's borders, etc
'They [West] pushed Ukraine to war with us'
Kyiv refused to negotiate peace and is pursuing nuclear weapons
The decision to launch the special military operation was necessary and the goal remains to liberate Donbas
Luhanks oblast is almost liberated and we are making progress in liberating Donetsk oblast
Right now professional soldiers serving under contract are serving in the special military operations, as well as volunteers
Talking about providing benefits and materiel to volunteers and LNR/DNR fighters
The front line is over 1000 km
Kyiv started to respond to our positions favorably, including in Istanbul. But the West did not want it and made Ukraine break off negotiations
Ukraine military is under effective command of Western advisors
Talking about historic Novorossiya lands
And, of course, Neo-Nazis
Talking about poor millions of refugees in Eastern Ukraine (Ed: I wonder why they are refugees...)
Now discussing referendums
'We will make everything possible to make sure that the referendums can be held safely'
'We will support [referendums]'
We are fighting not just neo-nazis but the whole Western military complex
Thus, I have to take the following necessary steps (Ed: here we go)
Putin announces partial mobilization!
Mobilization applies to reserves and those who had previously served in the military
Mobilization will start today Sept 21
Talking about increasing production of munitions and weapons systems
Bashing the West again
Washington, London and Brussels are pushing Ukraine to take the fight to Russian territory
They are even using 'nuclear blackmail' (Zaporizhia NPP)
NATO is talking about the use of weapons of mass destruction against Russia (Ed: It's not)
We will use all of our resources to protect Russia. 'This is not a bluf'. Reinforcing: 'all available resources'
'The wind can blow in their [western] direction too'
And Putin's speech is done.
Summary: immediate partial mobilization of those with military expertise. Bashing of the West and Ukrainian 'neo-Nazis'. And some not so oblique nuclear threats
END
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Mobilization was always a very risky political move for Putin
But the utterly incompetent way in which it is being carried out—with terrible communication, contradicting criteria, grabbing of men on the streets, etc is likely to erode support for the war and for him personally 🧵
Many Russians that have husbands, sons and fathers of mobilization age are completely petrified right now.
Given that this may not be the last mobilization they are going to need to execute, the regime’s political fortunes could turn quite rapidly
Yes, the brutal authoritarian security apparatus is still very strong and will work hard to suppress any dissent but one can expect people to grow more courageous when faced with the prospect of losing their lives or those of loved ones
Shoigu: In February, we knew that Ukrainian Armed Forces had 201-202k forces. Their casualties are over 100k. Killed 61,207 and 49,368 wounded (Ed: amazingly precise numbers for something that is virtually impossible to count accurately)
Shoigu: They lost half of their army. That's why they are now doing a 4th wave of mobilization (300k ppl)
Putin has responded to the humiliating and shocking (to the system) Russian military defeat in Kharkiv oblast
His choices were to:
A) Do nothing
B) Try to negotiate an end
C) Escalate
He chose to escalate and proclaim an explicit goal of liberating Donbas, which is a tall order
In doing so, he has painted himself into a corner and has potentially put his rule under threat, if he fails in achieving his stated goal of conquering Donbas
And he is making his long-term political situation even worse by moving forward with annexation referendums in oblasts that are not even fully under his control (or some, where his area of control is diminishing daily)
One of the objectives that @DrRadchenko and I wanted to achieve in our @ForeignAffairs piece (link below) is to debunk some of the prevailing myths about Russia. Here are the most important ones: 🧵
Myth #1: Once Putin leaves power/dies, Russia will abandon its anti-Western belligerent policies and return to the bosom of the liberal Western order
Reality: Putin is most likely to be replaced by another hardliner who will continue or even accelerate his aggressive policies
Myth #2: It's only a matter of time before Russia turns into a Jeffersonian democracy with the rule of law, free press, etc
Reality: Democracy has become a dirty word in Russia over the last 3 decades. Even long after Putin is gone, the Russian public is unlikely to desire it
"A senior U.S. defense official said Washington knew more about Russia’s plan to invade than about Ukraine’s plan for defense, fueling doubts about how Kyiv would fare"
"U.S. officials suspected that the Ukrainian military was wary of sharing war plans while its political leadership was downplaying the likelihood of war, the official said, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive matter."