Thread by @baklitskiy

In his speech announcing the partial mobilization of Russian forces in the context of the ongoing war with Ukraine Pres. Putin again raised the issue of nuclear weapons and made some noteworthy comments. Thread 1/13

There’s still no official translation from Kremlin.ru so this translation is unofficial. The Russian text can be accessed at kremlin.ru/events/preside…, though the website apparently has some access issues rn 2/13

So, Pres. Putin said that some high-level representatives of key NATO states made statements about the possibility and admissibility of use of WMD/ nuclear weapons against Russia. I’m not sure I’m aware of anything like this, not from the NWS for sure 3/13

In response to this Pres Putin reminds those unnamed people that Russia also has different “means of destruction” – meaning nuclear weapons, no surprise here 4/13

But then Pres. Putin continues by saying “if the territorial integrity of our country is threatened, we will certainly use all the means at our disposal to protect Russia and our people. It's not a bluff” 5/13

Pres. Putin continues “The citizens of Russia can be sure that the territorial integrity of our Motherland, our independence and freedom will be ensured - I emphasize this again - with all the means at our disposal” 6/13

Those statements go beyond the Russian nuclear doctrine, which only suggests Russian first use in a conventional war when the very existence of the state is threatened. Putin adds “territorial integrity” and very abstract protection of people, independence, and freedom 7/13

Coming from the person who has the sole decision-making power regarding Russian nuclear weapons this will have to be taken seriously 8/13

“Territorial integrity” is of course tricky as Russia is currently planning to absorb 4 Ukrainian regions, none of which is even fully controlled by its armed forces. Would this mean that Ukraine would be threatened with nuclear weapons to hand them to Russia? 9/13

What would it mean if Ukraine retook the territory Russia considers its own and Pres Putin would not use nuclear weapons in response? 10/13

None of this means that Russia would resort to nuclear use. This would be a truly world-changing decision. And it’s not clear if such a move would even lead to any desired outcomes for Pres Putin as @LawDavF eloquently wrote samf.substack.com/p/going-nuclea… 11/13

But extending the conditions for possible use amidst the ongoing war is a huge gamble. One we all, including Russia, would be safer without #nuclearriskreduction 12/13

Also read our recent @UNIDIR report on the disarmament, arms control, and non-proliferation implications of the invasion of Ukraine by Lew Dunn unidir.org/afterUkraine 13/13